Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Kind of looks like it’s starting to try for another eyewall replacement at the end of this 24hr loop m-perc agrees, who is ready for another ERC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Poco said: m-perc agrees, who is ready for another ERC? We could just erc this thing away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Lopsided Looks like the dry air is starting to have some effect on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longislander Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, Grace said: I just don't understand why folks try to ride these storms out. They may all make ok but why? Because evacuation isn't easy. Hours on the road, struggle to find hotels, running out of gas, car accidents along the escape route. Only people in the affected storm surge zones should evacuate. What happens here is that people outside those zones, panic and evacuate too, and they take up the hotels and roads needed for the people who should leave. I remember when I evacuated for Sandy, family members couldn't get hotel rooms, the guy checking into the hotel next to me - lived 5 miles away from the hotel, yet he "evacuated" to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: We could just erc this thing away. Er C your way out of here milty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Stretch, not sure what time frame you were referring to yesterday, but uyou may have been correct about the loop current. It is a tongue that runs SE to NW. For point of reference it begins south of Fla and runs up to about 1/3 of the state, again on SE-NW trajectory. Milton will traverse that early tomorrow morning, and that’s when they think it may blow up to around 155 again. The loop is pretty far away from Fla. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 The 10am vort message did not note concentric eyewalls, and radar hasn't been the best tool for this. But I suppose it could be starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: We could just erc this thing away. Probably why models are keeping intensity capped, but erc’s aren’t so cut and dry. It completed last nights in 6 or 7 hours. If it can complete another erc today before hitting the area of ocean heat potential it could restrengthen some . Timing of the erc’s will be crucial as this thing approaches land. Very active eyewall, even if it gets weaker it will grow in size and there’s no way to know if and how much restrengthening may occur after this next erc. best to keep on observing recconssaince abd monitoring satellite algos and intensity. Dont simply rely on modeling or modeling interpretation for your evacuation or emergency plans Edited October 8 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Population of Tampa last ‘cane over 100 years ago: 100,000. Um today, 3,000,000. Many other populated areas that part of the coast also. Helene missed landfall at populated areas. That’s was we are dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 What max winds and pressure drops do we see before EOD? Back to 170ish? low 900s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Visible looks healthy, infrared, not so much particularly on the northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) GOM geostrophic current and heat content https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php Edited October 8 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 If he feeds off that piece of energy it could fill the gap right back in on the north side. It had that feeder yesterday that really just looked like it was dumping fuel into the cane itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 7 minutes ago, longislander said: Because evacuation isn't easy. Hours on the road, struggle to find hotels, running out of gas, car accidents along the escape route. Only people in the affected storm surge zones should evacuate. What happens here is that people outside those zones, panic and evacuate too, and they take up the hotels and roads needed for the people who should leave. I remember when I evacuated for Sandy, family members couldn't get hotel rooms, the guy checking into the hotel next to me - lived 5 miles away from the hotel, yet he "evacuated" to it. I disagree in part, agree in part. Evac is NOT only for those in surge zones - that only is who should be mandated. The concerns over loss of power, inadequate availability of sustaining supplies, just general inconvenience are all good reasons to bug out. Some of the "issues" you mention will exist with an evac - that much I can agree with. Yet who are you or I to criticize those who simply want to seek a safer place? They don't "take up" resources - they take advantage of, and prudently so. (rhetorical question, no reply requested to that question - it's an academic exercise) Look at W NC - people I know who were not affected directly are still struggling because their resources are dwindling or they are cut off from getting to them. At the end of the day, it's the "boy cry wolf" syndrome - people think that "it didn't happen last time" and stick with that. That and this maddening distrust of the government and all "officials" that seems to pervade too many minds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) Milt holding serve here… not weakening nor strengthening at the moment. Peak SMFR maybe a tick higher on the last pass. Edited October 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 That NW quad just looks like it's eroding away on IR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: That NW quad just looks like it's eroding away on IR Dry layer being drawn down - one guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 1845 and 2000 Z are the next scheduled missions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: That NW quad just looks like it's eroding away on IR I have to expect the SE convection will wrap back around the core as it pulls away from land into the warmer waters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It’s not favorably interacting with land currently, I expect the combination of diurnal cycle, land and another ERC will cause a bit of stagnation until tonight once it clears a couple of those obstacles. For now it’s battling m, watching all the different processes at work can be very educational but stressful if you have skin in the game. Personally I don’t but I’m no expert by any measure, frankly I’m probably one step above a rambling lunatic, but I do my best 😛 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Burr said: Those last frames… getting its act together again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, Poco said: It’s not favorably interacting with land currently, I expect the combination of diurnal cycle, land and another ERC will cause a bit of stagnation until tonight once it clears a couple of those obstacles. For now it’s battling m, watching all the different processes at work can be very educational but stressful if you have skin in the game. Personally I don’t but I’m no expert by any measure, frankly I’m probably one step above a rambling lunatic, but I do my best 😛 Your rambling is always welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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