Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Burr is on top of recon. I'll say that it looks like the bleeding has stopped. Mission 13 saw 932 then 931 mb. Mission 14 saw 930. Waiting for updated vort messages from the last pass. I’ll try to watch it for the next hour or so, but then I’m “@Work” again 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I think it tried to clear an eye for one frame of the Sat. presentation then quickly obscured again. Prolly on the verge of breaking it open all over again. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 hours ago, MaineJay said: Looks almost stationary the last hour or so. Might not be far off from clearing the morning blurry eye. Why is it pink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 I'm still a little concerned the GFS actually strengthens and holds up until landfall. Hurricane models all diminish though. Euro ICON NAM and GFS hit stronger than what they initialize with. There's probably a reason for this - hurricane models understand tropical dynamics better, globals understand extratropical processes better? And both will be happening. But I don't understand how the models start off in the 970s when the storm is 930. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, clm said: Why is it pink? You see pink? Hmmmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Burr said: More from him… ”A new report here says it might get knocked down yo a Cat 1 when it hits land. I appreciate it. But I'm 77 years old. I'll make the right decisions.” Me: “Who says that? I’ll bet you $1 it will not be a Cat 1 when it makes landfall. There’s no data to support that guidance. That’s just bad info.” Uncle: “The NHC. Was on the radio. Yeah, the guy said that the wind shear is going to knock this thing down considerably when it near shore.” So I sent him the actual NHC info, showing a major hurricane at landfall, and the snippet of the discussion. Told him it’s his decision, but I want it to be based on accurate forecasting… So far from what I read here, plenty of warm water, very little wind shear. So what is going to knock it down from a 5 to a 1? Superman? Or The Black Pearl? Or Santa Claus? Edited October 8 by clm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: You see pink? Hmmmm Only @MaineJay 's loop I see pink. The others posted show white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 What is the reasoning behind the sudden right turn the models have been picking up on as it approaches land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 11 minutes ago, clm said: So far from what I read here, plenty of warm water, very little wind shear. So what is going to knock it down from a 5 to a 1? This would probably do it. Granted this is current and the shear lifts out, but it really rides that line on the HWRF and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: This would probably do it. Granted this is current and the shear lifts out, but it really rides that line on the HWRF and GFS. I could see the shear weakening it somewhat, but would it really drag it to a Cat 1 that fast? I'm no expert nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: This would probably do it. Granted this is current and the shear lifts out, but it really rides that line on the HWRF and GFS. Again though, this will only be a ONE once it interacts with landmass of Florida proper NOONE is saying it will be down to a ONE prior to landfall. No one credible that is And the Divergence remains strong and is, once again, like yesterday, aligned with strong Convergence. Add in warmer still SSTs and Shear alone will not knock it back - at least not from a 5-1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Again though, this will only be a ONE once it interacts with landmass of Florida proper NOONE is saying it will be down to a ONE prior to landfall. No one credible that is And the Divergence remains strong and is, once again, like yesterday, aligned with strong Convergence. Add in warmer still SSTs and Shear alone will not knock it back - at least not from a 5-1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 37 minutes ago, clm said: Why is it pink? It's the multi spectral imagery. It's good for seeing the clouds at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 Looks like he's wobbling at like 4 mph forward speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 49 minutes ago, clm said: Why is it pink? Breast cancer awareness month? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Eyewall looks to be shaping up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainelySnow Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 48 minutes ago, clm said: So far from what I read here, plenty of warm water, very little wind shear. So what is going to knock it down from a 5 to a 1? Superman? Or The Black Pearl? Or Santa Claus? How many people has wishful thinking killed? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Can anyone link some WV loops? I’m screwing off at work enough lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, TLChip said: Can anyone link some WV loops? I’m screwing off at work enough lol. I wish I could get paid for this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I still think this comes ashore S of TB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Lastest Vortex message: 930mb, closed eye circular 12nm wide. Inbound sfmr 114mph, outbound 166 mph. Outbound is WNW side. Eye has cooled to 20c, which is more normal than the 28c we were seeing. Max Flight winds 145mph. So it's holding its own. Wondering if the Yucatan is interfering - haven't seen any pro say that yet. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 14:17Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 14 Observation Number: 19 A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 14:00:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.53N 88.62W B. Center Fix Location: 125 statute miles (201 km) to the NNE (30°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,504m (8,215ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 9kts (From the N at 10mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 99kts (113.9mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the ESE (108°) of center fix at 13:58:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 204° at 126kts (From the SSW at 145.0mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (113°) of center fix at 13:57:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 144kts (165.7mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 14:03:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 31° at 130kts (From the NNE at 149.6mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 14:03:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 126kts (~ 145.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the ESE (113°) from the flight level center at 13:58:00Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 16 minutes ago, TLChip said: Can anyone link some WV loops? I’m screwing off at work enough lol. Lopsided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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