Burr Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Whichever way you stack it, its bad news. Tampa Bay still has alot of recovery, the surge surprised everyone there with the storm 100 miles west of them, a direct hit will be devastating. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 They upped the strength in the 5pm update… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 Only way this is worse is a stronger system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 HMON goes a bit nuts down to 920mb but weakens as it heads to big bend Only to be outdone by the HAFS A which has 162kts (186mph). HAFS B crazy too 154kts. But is pretty close to 110kts at landfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 Only 20-30% chance of hurricane force winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 (edited) This is going to be very bad 😫 Edited October 6 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Alarming trend there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Milton appears to be organizing. Rapid intensifacation is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 6 Admin Share Posted October 6 HAFS-B is a little crazy, weakens a bunch before landfall at least. So a bad storm as depicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 6 Admin Share Posted October 6 Kinda pulsing and collapsing with the convection in the CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 (edited) Pressure dropped 10mb overnight SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 94.9W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB... 29.26 INCHES From the 5am NH. discussion: “Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Milton.” Edited October 6 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 (edited) First NOAA Hunter flight is in the storm. Pressure of ~986mb Edited October 6 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 (edited) Expected to be Cat 3 by Tuesday, well off shore. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Note from the discussion: The new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. AND The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the storm gets stronger. Milton is expected to weaken and start extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition completed by 120 h. Edited October 6 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 In reviewing some Layer Mean Wind Analysis via CIMSS charts, it seems to me that the lower Milton goes in pressure - the more south it would tend to track. My method is to compare steering winds at the 940mb level those below 940mb. Above that mark suggest Tampa is correct. Below (stronger storm) suggests Fort Myers (approx landfall) Mindful that these steering winds are not static and will change - equally considering that, to me, there is not sufficient change to the overall picture being strongly altered moving forward in the near term 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Also, the Convergence/Divergence maps tell me that the environment is being well ventilated and robustly reinvigorated at the center . SST's recovered sufficiently and after initial land influence dry air, it will be off to the races (RI). As with Helene, I don't think SHR will punch it down all too much - the aforementioned factors weighing more heavily to enhancement than to SHR potentially weakening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 (edited) G’mornin’ definitely looking more organized, with proto-feeder bands to east and west of the cdo Edited October 6 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 Still pretty wide window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 6 Admin Share Posted October 6 18 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Still pretty wide window Recon should help narrow this down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 11am Discussion highlights: good burst of convection, expanding outflow. It's south of where previously anticipated and moving ESE at 5kt. Will turn NE on Tues and speed up. Southward shift of guidance. Eyewall has formed and its ready to intensify. Rapid intensification is forecast and the numbers while in the central GOM are conservative. The big and troubling question is the intensity as it approaches FL. Spoiler Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening. A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be the initial intensity. The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or 105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula. As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake NIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 M 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 This looks like a hurricane 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 Current official pressure is 991. The extrapolated from mission one is 985. The models had the following for 11am - and they are all too high, but HAFSB is closest. HWRF: 996 HMON: 996 HAFS A: 993 HAFS B: 992 GFS: 996 Euro: 1005 UKIE: 1006 ICON: 1001 CMC: 1001 NAM: 995 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now