Neoncyclone Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 new HAFS-B run initialized at 876mb, crazy that might not have been completely out of the realm of possibility if there was no ERC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 0z GFS run… starts off at 976mb and makes landfall at 955mb Edited October 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) Eyeballing the last pass estimate at ~925mb Edited October 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Wind speeds the last two passes are low end cat5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 927mb on the last pass. Ticked north (again) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It was mentioned earlier. This time with a satellite view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 When you're busy watching a Cane explode - and forget to check Aurora conditions - this happens in your back yard and you miss out... 3 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 hours ago, StretchCT said: NAM has an interesting path. Takes it up like the others, then slows it down and turns it right. Ala Charlies IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Lower and slower seems to be among the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 HAFS-A and B both are 20mb deeper at 00z than their own 18z had landfall. Both are bringing it in tight at 930 something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Flagging for the past seveal hours As the Salamancan (Mexico) Meteo Service indicated - a 4 at the 5 a.m. update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 Looks almost stationary the last hour or so. Might not be far off from clearing the morning blurry eye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Eye seems clouded over for now, still have a strong microwave shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning. Spoiler The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic. Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models. Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) Riding the shear line today, unfavorable conditions to come. FWIW Every model is a solid 3+ at landfall Edited October 8 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6z NAM (12k) is stronger than 00z by a full 10mb. Same track, maybe a tick S. hard to tell. Again though, a slower forward motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 Deep convection is wrapping back around, especially on the northern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Sat + lightning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Good morning. Here's to another day of tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Storm is still very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 17 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Storm is still very impressive Of course it is, and continues to be. One of the issues with RI that takes it up to 5, is that others (not in here) think "oh well, see? told ya! I'm stayin". It was mentioned in here many times. On a Central PA weather site I'm on - a 35year met asked us to inform if friends and family are fleeing or staying - an astonishing number of members said that there's are staying put. It's their funeral I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Does anyone know this site for the storm surge cams like we saw in fort Myers during Ian???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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