Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 22 minutes ago, Poco said: Favorable interaction with land during the diurnal cycle, cool dry air coming off the yucatan like throwing gas into a fire there will be case studies done on this hurricane for a long long time Something to keep in mind - there is a potential developement off the coast of Florida per NHC. This must be watched for a favorable interaction which could help ventilate the storm down the road. Just something to keep in mind for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) Hurricane hunter. Going where other pilots fear to fly. Edited October 8 by Burr 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) My grandmother had a place in South Venice, FL so I've been there a lot. The beaches were nice but they probably won't be there in a few days. Edited October 8 by btbucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 18z runs on the hurricane models have a minor concern. The storm does continue to weaken, but at some point, hour 27 on HAFS B, it restrengthens. HAFS A brings it down to 916. HWRF does it to a lesser extent, then has a little restrengthening before landfall. HMON just diminishes it the rest of the run. Only a minor concern because it then falls apart before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 For weather geeks, if you have Directv, Fox Weather streams live on the channel right after TWC. The coverage is incredible, and not as much forecasting and fluff as TWC. I watched both channels with Helene and combined, the coverage was a must watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 18z runs on the hurricane models have a minor concern. The storm does continue to weaken, but at some point, hour 27 on HAFS B, it restrengthens. HAFS A brings it down to 916. HWRF does it to a lesser extent, then has a little restrengthening before landfall. HMON just diminishes it the rest of the run. Only a minor concern because it then falls apart before landfall. Per my post earlier, it is that cold air injection. Timing is crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) Outer eyewall appears to be contracting quickly [Edit: cannot get the video animation at the moment] Edited October 8 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 crazy how nasty the storm looks all around, but the flight winds aren't that bad for most of it. Oh yeah, and Mission 10 timed it well again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 7 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Per my post earlier, it is that cold air injection. Timing is crucial. Levi mentioned that in his video today. I was thinking it it's more like the loop current causing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, Burr said: Outer eyewall appears to be contracting quickly I'm hardly an expert but I have to imagine there's a tremendous difference between an erc with a 100 mile eye and this 24 mile eye. I don't think this is gonna slow it down as much as an erc usually would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Levi mentioned that in his video today. I was thinking it it's more like the loop current causing it. Think that loop current is a little more west than where GFS has it restrengthening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Tag-team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 909 extrapolated last run through. Up 10mb since recon started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) ERC continues. Each pass slightly less impressive Edited October 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted October 8 Moderators Share Posted October 8 9 minutes ago, 1816 said: I'm hardly an expert but I have to imagine there's a tremendous difference between an erc with a 100 mile eye and this 24 mile eye. I don't think this is gonna slow it down as much as an erc usually would. Most storms we watch can't even get down to a 24 mile wide eye. It's hard to imagine that being the outer eyewall. Of course, Wilma had an eye that was just over 2 miles wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 (edited) 911 on the last drop into the eye. 899 at 22:22 904 at 23:35 911 at 0:47 Edited October 8 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Going to be interesting when I wake up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Radar getting funky out of Mexico. Might be going out of range and hopefully into the Cancun radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Vort message highlights: 911mb, inner eye 5nm, outer eye 30nm, closed. Max inbound 153 kts, max outbound 132kts. Temp inside eye 28C, outside 15c. Spoiler Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:18Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 10 Observation Number: 22 A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 0:47:39Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.85N 90.32W B. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the NW (323°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 911mb (26.90 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 30kts (From the ENE at 35mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) G. Inner Eye Diameter: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) G. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 30° at 153kts (From the NNE at 176.1mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 0:46:23Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 173° at 132kts (From the S at 151.9mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the E (89°) of center fix at 0:48:51Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 28°C (82°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,417m (7,930ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 161kts (~ 185.3mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the WSW (237°) from the flight level center at 22:21:09Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Mission 11 vortex: 912 mb, 4nm inner eye closed, 24nm outer eye (open in SW), inbound sfmr winds 155mph, outbound 191mph. Max flight 182mph. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:19Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 11 Observation Number: 12 A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 1:00:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.81N 90.28W B. Center Fix Location: 73 statute miles (118 km) to the NW (323°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,319m (7,608ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 912mb (26.93 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 13kts (From the NE at 15mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) G. Inner Eye Diameter: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) G. Outer Eye Diameter: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 135kts (155.4mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles to the NNW (345°) of center fix at 0:59:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 93° at 128kts (From the E at 147.3mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 0:58:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 166kts (191.0mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the W (264°) of center fix at 1:02:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 356° at 158kts (From the N at 181.8mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the W (264°) of center fix at 1:02:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,996m (9,829ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 158kts (~ 181.8mph) which was observed 3 nautical miles to the W (264°) from the flight level center at 1:02:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... OUTER EYEWALL OPEN SW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Watch the last couple hours on the loop. Prob ERC related, Milton is injecting roids for the the bodybuilding competition. Getting bigger, a figure skater opening her arms a bit. Current model runs have this perilously close to the dreaded , worst angle possible that the Tampa area has been trying to prep for, for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: 2 hour loop. Boosted the contrast slightly. What are those bubbles southwest of the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 914mb on the last pass Edited October 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I think you are thinking of the 1938 hurricane. 1935 made landfall in the Florida Keys. Indeed it was 1938. Created a brand new channel in the barrier islands on Long Island. Cedar Point Lighthouse in East Hampton was originally on its own island. The Long Island Express rearranged it so that it was connected to Long Island. You can now walk to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Recon has 898 mb, but that may not be lowest pressure. This is not the storm to trifle with. I hope others heed the warning to get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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