1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, tool483 said: Dear lord, look at that!? I'm not sure i've seen that anywhere before. The gravity waves holy shieet Never. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 URNT15 KNHC 072340 AF302 1114A MILTON HDOB 13 20241007 233230 2217N 09105W 6963 03073 9955 +091 //// 018046 047 048 005 01 233300 2216N 09103W 6955 03074 //// +090 //// 021051 054 051 008 01 233330 2214N 09102W 6976 03050 //// +089 //// 026056 058 050 013 01 233400 2213N 09100W 6967 03056 9927 +098 //// 026053 055 053 008 01 233430 2212N 09059W 6961 03060 9926 +099 //// 025051 053 054 008 01 233500 2211N 09057W 6952 03062 //// +088 //// 030057 059 055 009 01 233530 2210N 09055W 6975 03028 //// +086 //// 029061 063 058 022 01 233600 2209N 09054W 6968 03034 //// +086 //// 031062 064 061 013 01 233630 2208N 09052W 6963 03034 //// +086 //// 031062 064 059 012 01 233700 2207N 09051W 6974 03016 //// +080 //// 034060 063 053 020 01 233730 2206N 09049W 6965 03018 //// +087 //// 033065 072 056 029 01 233800 2205N 09048W 6964 03011 //// +085 //// 027068 071 057 017 01 233830 2203N 09046W 6965 03003 //// +083 //// 032067 070 059 015 01 233900 2202N 09045W 6965 02989 //// +088 //// 033070 073 061 009 01 233930 2201N 09043W 6963 02978 //// +093 //// 035073 076 066 012 01 234000 2200N 09042W 6977 02948 //// +086 //// 037079 081 068 020 01 234030 2159N 09041W 6963 02943 //// +092 //// 036082 085 076 013 01 234100 2158N 09039W 6958 02928 9749 +107 //// 041083 085 080 008 01 234130 2157N 09038W 6971 02885 9719 +119 //// 036082 087 085 015 01 234200 2156N 09036W 6956 02871 //// +111 //// 031089 091 097 010 01 $$ ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Second pass not as impressive as the first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Satellite loop looks to be showing some further “favorable interaction” occurring from the cooler dry air coming off the Yucatán. The blob in the NE quadrant has remerged some as Milton continues to intensify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 11 minutes ago, StretchCT said: So close - gotta wait another ten minutes Ugh again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 5 minutes ago, Burr said: Second pass not as impressive as the first 903 extrapolated. Sonde konked out in the eyewall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) 897mb at 8 p.m Edited October 7 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 897mb! Quote BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 897 mb (26.49 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Again, mission 11 not as impressive as the first pass of mission 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 897mb at 8 p.m But they didn’t acknowledge the sonde reading of 185mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 897mb! That 1 mb was not an accident. They know what kind of beast this is regardless of where the sensors hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 8 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Ugh again! Mission 11 extrapolated 902mb from flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 take it from here night crew Rooster gotta roost. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) current location Edited October 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Ahhh - Mission 11 Vortex with concentric eye wall. Pressure up to 906 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, StretchCT said: Ahhh - Mission 11 Vortex with concentric eye wall. Pressure up to 906 ERC as predicted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 19 minutes ago, Poco said: Satellite loop looks to be showing some further “favorable interaction” occurring from the cooler dry air coming off the Yucatán. The blob in the NE quadrant has remerged some as Milton continues to intensify It looks like it's spawning 3 other mini hurricanes in the NE quadrant!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Ahhh - Mission 11 Vortex with concentric eye wall. Pressure up to 906 Yea Erc well underway now it’s definitely expanding on the satellite loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 7 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said: It looks like it's spawning 3 other mini hurricanes in the NE quadrant!!!! Favorable interaction with land during the diurnal cycle, cool dry air coming off the yucatan like throwing gas into a fire there will be case studies done on this hurricane for a long long time Edited October 8 by Poco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) is It 897 mb or 906 mb at 8:00PM? Edited October 8 by buxtonian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, buxtonian said: It 897 mb or 906 mb at 8:00PM? Officially 897. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Vortex message from mission 11 eye open in south, concentric eyewall inner eye 5nm outer eye 24nm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Reed if anyone was interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now