RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I mentioned yesterday that the steering winds indicated the stronger the storm - the more south the track. Steering winds and shear are 2 different things. Wondering out loud that if it more south , will it miss some of the shear ??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Steering winds and shear are 2 different things. Wondering out loud that if it more south , will it miss some of the shear ??? I'm saying that SHR won't matter with it being so powerful (SHR did not stop Helene, that one shrugged the SHR off as if it was mere nuisance) - it has more than ample divergence going for it (SHR is actually enhancing that) and to think - it's not even to the 30c part of the basin yet. This might not weaken except for ERC 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: I'm saying that SHR won't matter with it being so powerful (SHR did not stop Helene, that one shrugged the SHR off as if it was mere nuisance) - it has more than ample divergence going for it (SHR is actually enhancing that) and to think - it's not even to the 30c part of the basin yet. This might not weaken except for ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Sub 940mb level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton from the ISS. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Former AccuWx Poster of the Year - Jim Sullivan (now with NWS Cleveland WFO) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just a bit of levity before out minds are blown by the new update at 5 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 18z intensity models. Some messed up ones in there. 12 GFS has arrival hrs 63-66. 12z euro hr 66. HFWRF hr 72 HAFS A hr 66. So lets go with 66 hrs until landfall from 12z, so its 60 hrs until landfall for 18z. The gray line is hr 60. Official is right on cat 4 line. There's quite a few under that. I'm hoping the faster and larger they become, the faster they fall apart. We might set a record for intensification but maybe we also set one for weakening prior to landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 5pm discussion highlights: Last data was 911 mb and satellite showed continued intensification hence the increase to 180 and 905mb. Moving east now at 9kts. Low shear and warm water continue through the night but radar showing signs of ERC. This could be the most destructive storm on record for western central Florida. Spoiler Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane. The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very strong eyewall presentation. On the last fix before the plane departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support 150 kt. Since the satellite imagery continues to show intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more information. The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt. Milton should move close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This feature should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change was made to the previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. Regardless, the system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. 2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Current radar (this is why I'm not an expert) INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 18z intensity models. Some messed up ones in there. 12 GFS has arrival hrs 63-66. 12z euro hr 66. HFWRF hr 72 HAFS A hr 66. So lets go with 66 hrs until landfall from 12z, so its 60 hrs until landfall for 18z. The gray line is hr 60. Official is right on cat 4 line. There's quite a few under that. I'm hoping the faster and larger they become, the faster they fall apart. We might set a record for intensification but maybe we also set one for weakening prior to landfall. I can buy weakening for sure, but the extreme weakening to cat 1/2 just seems highly suspicious. What is going to cause it to fall apart to that extent? Yes, shear and dry air entrainment can do a number on systems sometimes, but it's unclear how much of a problem that will be. Also, and this is crucial, we are not looking at a dramatic slowdown in forward speed as it approaches landfall. We often talk about storms running out of time to strengthen before landfall, but I think this is going to be a case of running out of time to weaken (to an extent). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 I think they upped the surge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: I think they upped the surge They did, and it's possible that this is still too low in some areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Watching the traffic jams on the roads leaving the Tampa area-- why doesn't the state initiate contraflow traffic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I firmly believe they need to revisit the Saffir-Simpson scale. Is it possible that the Category of storm is loosely associated with the force of the wind? Very loosely. (If I were to re-categorize for the US hurricane scale, I would use the force of the wind as a baseline) Force (or pressure) is based on the square of wind speed. If a hurricane force wind begins at 74mph (category 1), then its force/pressure would be 14.01 lbs/sqft. At category 2, 96 miles per hour, exerts 23.59 lbs/sqft. That’s a 168% of the force of a 74mph Category 1, even though wind speed is just increased by 29%. In chart format: Cat1=14.01 lbs/sqft. Cat2=23.59 lbs/sqft. = 1.68 x Cat1 force Cat3=31.54lbs/sqft. = 2.21 x Cat1 force Cat4=43.26 lbs/sqft. = 3.08 x Cat1 force Cat5=63.10 lbs/sqft. = 4.50 x Cat 1 force A hypothetical Cat 6 of 175mph, for example) would be approximately 5.5x Cat1 force. My proposed scale would be more closely associated with the square of the wind speed. There would be no upper limit… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: They did, and it's possible that this is still too low in some areas. Both sides of Florida and GA and SC are expecting surge. From a stom in the Gulf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The satellite presentation is actually getting scarier which hard to believe. I have never seen anything like this! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: The satellite presentation is actually getting scarier which hard to believe. I have never seen anything like this! I think all of us are in uncharted territory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: I think all of us are in uncharted territory No telling what becomes of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: No telling what becomes of this. Might be the storm of the millennium.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 890s and 190 mph is do-able. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Sunset approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) Was too busy writing my Ted Talk about Saffir-Simpson, so it’s an hour old but… BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES Edited October 7 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longislander Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 It has to come north to weaken, that's the only way it will be sheared by the northern stream. So if the northern most solutions are being dropped by the models, that's bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger1989 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) I'm getting a 503 service temporarily unavailable error at the NHC website. I hope it's not going down. It happened twice. Edited October 7 by Roger1989 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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