TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Jon Snow said: It is very, very unfortunate, and likely to just increase the setup for disaster. The problem that come with wide scale devastation is there are 0 time frames. Until any company/organization can see what happened, make a plan, get people in the right direction with the right equipment. That can take days. Small problem I faced in 2020s Junes derecho from NY -> Maryland. I thought around 800k+ lost power. It took 4 days to get power back, last houses on the line and the only ones without power in the neighborhood, over a tripped fuse… Do I blame the power company? Not really, we just happened to be the lowest priority. After that I knew a generator was mandatory…. But I haven’t fired it up yet. Edited October 7 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 A couple of thoughts based on previous comments. 1. I’m not in favor of Cat 6. Cat 5 is what it is, catastrophe or you will probably die. Where would you even start Cat 6 and what would be the delineating factor? 2. This could be a very bad day for Orlando as well potentially. 3. This RI thing is getting out of control. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This thing is a freaking beast, woww..lets hope it loses at least a little bit of it's bite before landfall. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Though not Gulf storms, Maria and Irma come immediately to mind. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 5 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: 2. This could be a very bad day for Orlando as well potentially. Indeed. Now this is where the intensity at landfall will matter much more than it will for the coastal areas, as it will dictate the magnitude of winds farther inland. But even something like 80-100 mph winds would cause plenty of issues in an area like Orlando, which would be similar to what Charley brought there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 A couple ticks north at the end of this loop could be a wobble, or could be the start of the northward curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Great posts here on the Sphere - thank you all. Interesting story in the Washington Post today on how Milton could be devastating to the Tampa area. Mostly focused on storm surge and flooding, here is a brief excerpt: Spoiler Warnings about Tampa Bay’s vulnerability have been coming for a long time. In 2015, a Boston firm that analyzes potential catastrophic damage reported that the region would lose $175 billion in a storm the size of Hurricane Katrina. A World Bank study called Tampa Bay one of the 10 most at-risk areas on the globe. It does not help that the region has barely had a chance to clean up after the last hurricane. Piles of fallen tree limbs and debris line the streets in some neighborhoods, waiting for waste haulers to pick them up. Broken appliances, sodden furniture and wood scraps litter yards. Strong wind gusts from the next hurricane could turn detritus from Helene into projectiles, creating a new threat from the wreckage of the last one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 17 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: A couple of thoughts based on previous comments. 1. I’m not in favor of Cat 6. Cat 5 is what it is, catastrophe or you will probably die. Where would you even start Cat 6 and what would be the delineating factor? 2. This could be a very bad day for Orlando as well potentially. 3. This RI thing is getting out of control. Ideally 160+ winds and 12'+ surge. I think those are the points where it starts to get apocalyptic. For coastal areas only obviously. Rain is a whole different thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 13 minutes ago, Burr said: Though not Gulf storms, Maria and Irma come immediately to mind. Any of the big cape verdes(fun to track for 2 weeks sometimes), it’s so weird only tracking this for 18 hours in the gulf. Lots here have worried about these spinning up when conditions unfold, bathtub water. Not much height in Mexico to cause much interference either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) My parents have a place right on Sarasota Bay (near Anna Maria Island for those that know the area). Their place took on 4 ft. of water from Helene & suffered serious damage. If this forecast holds of a landfall somewhere near Tampa, they won't have a place left - and insurance isn't an option where they are located...Just awful! 🥲 Edited October 7 by MesoscaleBanding 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: Wow. https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80 Holy.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) Edited October 7 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: My parents have a place right on Sarasota Bay (near Anna Maria Island for those that know the area). Their place took on 4 ft. of water from Helene & suffered serious damage. If this forecast holds of a landfall somewhere near Tampa, they won't have a place left - and insurance isn't an option where they are located...Just awful! 🥲 Regrets to your folks… hope they’re not in the area. It’s a sad story. Insurance companies can’t cover the damages without jacking up the rates. If they jack up the rates, people choose / take the risk not to buy insurance. Your folks are not alone in that situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Burr said: Regrets to your folks… hope they’re not in the area. It’s a sad story. Insurance companies can’t cover the damages without jacking up the rates. If they jack up the rates, people choose / take the risk not to buy insurance. Your folks are not alone in that situation. They are up in Ohio & plan to fly down there next weekend (if there's anything to fly back to...) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 28 minutes ago, Burr said: A couple ticks north at the end of this loop could be a wobble, or could be the start of the northward curve. Definitely moving north of east now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) It's conceivable this storm may have winds at 180+ right now Edited October 7 by StormfanaticInd 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 18 minutes ago, 1816 said: Ideally 160+ winds and 12'+ surge. I think those are the points where it starts to get apocalyptic. For coastal areas only obviously. Rain is a whole different thing. If Cat 5 starts at 157, what is the difference?? Additionally, storm surge isn’t defined by winds at time of landfall. This is basically calling the current sports star the Goat and not looking at everything holistically. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 IF you are on the West Coast of Florida you need to be prepared to leave if you are not in an area currently projected to be hit. If you are on the West Coast of Florida and in an area that is in the NHC cone of Uncertainty: You need to leave. Now. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: If Cat 5 starts at 157, what is the difference?? Additionally, storm surge isn’t defined by winds at time of landfall. This is basically calling the current sports star the Goat and not looking at everything holistically. Agreed, at 160+ sustained, you’re already pushing 180-200 gusts. Land goes from green to brown, snapped or vegetation ripped off. Was it Irma that destroyed an island so bad they haven’t really rebuilt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Current recon is sampling the atmosphere at 45000 feet Mission 10 should be departing within the next few minutes to an hour. Sometime around 20z. But no reports of it up there yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 22 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: If Cat 5 starts at 157, what is the difference?? Additionally, storm surge isn’t defined by winds at time of landfall. This is basically calling the current sports star the Goat and not looking at everything holistically. I thought it was 145 or 150. Maybe make it 165 or 170 then. But remember when they saw Jaws and said you're gonna need a bigger boat? I think we're gonna need a bigger category. And the lack of including storm surge as a criteria for categorization is a major shortcoming they should rectify ASAP. A cat 3 with 15 feet of surge into a populated coastal area should be a 5 alarm fire imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Not many models north of Tampa now. Seems Tampa to Ft Meyers is the target. Taking out the southern outliers and focusing in, it's really Clearwater to Port Charlotte. To an earlier point made by @Psu1313 you can see where Orlando comes into play. I don't know the forward speed at landfall but if it's high and it lands as a high three, that whole corridor to New Smyrna down to Melbourne could see pretty nasty gusts with Lakeland and Orlando even seeing 100mph. Now if the storm falls apart like the hurricane models are predicting and it hits as a 2, gusts to 100 would be limited to within a few miles of the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Mission ten is off the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Not many models north of Tampa now. Seems Tampa to Ft Meyers is the target. Taking out the southern outliers and focusing in, it's really Clearwater to Port Charlotte. To an earlier point made by @Psu1313 you can see where Orlando comes into play. I don't know the forward speed at landfall but if it's high and it lands as a high three, that whole corridor to New Smyrna down to Melbourne could see pretty nasty gusts with Lakeland and Orlando even seeing 100mph. Now if the storm falls apart like the hurricane models are predicting and it hits as a 2, gusts to 100 would be limited to within a few miles of the coast. I mentioned yesterday that the steering winds indicated the stronger the storm - the more south the track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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