Gardyloo Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Thanks for everyone's input on this monster. I have a friend who has recently purchased a second house in Ft. Myers. The damage from Helene was severe as they live on a canal and the storm surge came up to 18" in their house. The former owner said they never had water in the house in the 40 years prior. They want to head down this week to start working on it and I've warned them not to go....based on this board and other reports. There will be more damage I fear. That is an impressive beast out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) Uh SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES Edited October 7 by Burr 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, 1816 said: This might be something that grabs their attention. That's needed at this time. It's a long standing joke about how hurricanes keep missing Tampa. Tampa probably not gonna miss this one, and it's fitting it's a doozy. They need to be shaken awake imo. The parallel with Katrina could be even more appropriate as Katrina weakened from a peak of cat 5 to a cat 3 at landfall, yet retained a cat 5 type surge for that area of the Gulf coast. Even if this comes in a hair south of Tampa, it's pretty populated to the south of there and would still be really bad for those folks. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) We all know not to get caught up in winds BUT the water is what kills and destroys most… anyone near the coast that can get out please do. Edited October 7 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 (edited) HAFS B now bottoming out at 884mb. Makes landfall in Tampa as cat 2. 172.4 kts is 198 moh HMON also Tampa Cat two. Peaks at 913mb and 146kts or 168 mph. HAFS A comes into Tampa just under 110mph. Peaks at 905mb 187mph HWRF is north and at about 125mph. It never goes as low on its run as it is now. Edited October 7 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 175MPH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: HAFS B now bottoming out at 884mb. Makes landfall in Tampa as cat 2. HMON also Tampa Cat two. Peaks at 913mb and 146kts or 168 mph. HAFS A comes into Tampa just under 110mph. Peaks at 905mb 187mph HWRF is north and at about 125mph. It never goes as low on its run as it is now. Gonna guess hwrf missed the boat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 There is still a massive amount of lightning all around the eye wall right now which would indicate that it is still strengthening. I would say peaking at 185/190 before EWR and then expanding in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 We better pray that shear forecast is right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 This is the progression. Times of the center fix are below. It went from 947 to 912 in less than 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I'm wondering what the overall sentiment is like around the west coast of FL right now. I'm sure there are some who are freaked out to see this already at cat 5, but I'm also wondering how many people are getting lulled into a false sense of security in seeing that landfall is forecast at "only" cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: but I'm also wondering how many people are getting lulled into a false sense of security in seeing that landfall is forecast at "only" cat 3. That’s my concern, we get an EWC and wind field and surge will expand even if the canes eye wall is a bit weaker. It’s not a saving grace at all. Edited October 7 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm wondering what the overall sentiment is like around the west coast of FL right now. I'm sure there are some who are freaked out to see this already at cat 5, but I'm also wondering how many people are getting lulled into a false sense of security in seeing that landfall is forecast at "only" cat 3. I've spent a lot of time around floridians and they are very slow to worry about this kind of stuff. Everyone on here knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that these storms seem to be getting worse seemingly by the storm. The warm waters are clearly increasing the strength of them. My understanding is the Tampa area is uniquely situated to maximize and exacerbate storm surge effects but it hasn't been tested in so long no one can remember what it's like. And they've obviously built a lot of waterfront. As a layman, seems like a perfect storm of bad stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: We better pray that shear forecast is right GFS concerns me. But perhaps a weaker storm isn't as affected? 12z run has the storm strengthening up until landfall, or just before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: GFS concerns me. But perhaps a weaker storm isn't as affected? 12z run has the storm strengthening up until landfall, or just before. That would have very serious implications if right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm wondering what the overall sentiment is like around the west coast of FL right now. I'm sure there are some who are freaked out to see this already at cat 5, but I'm also wondering how many people are getting lulled into a false sense of security in seeing that landfall is forecast at "only" cat 3. I already spoke to a friend of mine who has family down there and they're breathing a sigh of relief that it won't hit at Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Its about Florence but still applies to all storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, clm said: I already spoke to a friend of mine who has family down there and they're breathing a sigh of relief that it won't hit at Cat 5. And let me get this in: I'm holding the phone on that until I see the shear or dry air actually affect the storm irl. Until then I'm leaving a cat 5 on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, 1816 said: And let me get this in: I'm holding the phone on that until I see the shear or dry air actually affect the storm irl. Until then I'm leaving a cat 5 on the table. Cat 5, cat 3, Katrina brought a cat 5 like storm surge even though hitting land at cat 3. This isn't going to be one of those snow storms where they predict 20 feet and you know you're getting 1/2 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The 1848 hurricane reportedly produced a 15 foot surge in Tampa. It appears that it was probably a high end cat 3 or perhaps borderline cat 4 at landfall. Unclear what its peak intensity was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, 1816 said: And let me get this in: I'm holding the phone on that until I see the shear or dry air actually affect the storm irl. Until then I'm leaving a cat 5 on the table. Yeah not betting against the only cat 5 to move in this direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 (edited) Mission 9 is upper air, so we will have a knowledge gap for the next few hours as to how much further the storm intensifies. ADT can't keep up. Looks like the next mission departs at 20z. Edited October 7 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 2 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 25 minutes ago, 1816 said: I've spent a lot of time around floridians and they are very slow to worry about this kind of stuff. Everyone on here knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that these storms seem to be getting worse seemingly by the storm. The warm waters are clearly increasing the strength of them. My understanding is the Tampa area is uniquely situated to maximize and exacerbate storm surge effects but it hasn't been tested in so long no one can remember what it's like. And they've obviously built a lot of waterfront. As a layman, seems like a perfect storm of bad stuff here. I don't say this to defend or excuse anyone, just as perspective. There is a huge portion of the population that no longer believes anything the main stream media or the government tells us. Most of them are not on here following what everyone what is being posted, they are only getting their weather info from the government or media, a source they have zero trust in. Worse, we have the disaster of Helene, and now the disaster known as FEMA. Already there are reports of evacuation routes turning to disasters, stations running out of fuel, etc. So, I understand this storm may be unsurvivable for some, and not evacuating could be a horrible decision. That makes me that much more grateful I can come here and get the assessments from everyone here I have come to know and trust, but far too many folks out there are only getting information from sources they have learned to be quite wary of. It is very, very unfortunate, and likely to just increase the setup for disaster. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 49 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm wondering what the overall sentiment is like around the west coast of FL right now. I'm sure there are some who are freaked out to see this already at cat 5, but I'm also wondering how many people are getting lulled into a false sense of security in seeing that landfall is forecast at "only" cat 3. Saw a few people with that sentiment on a sports board no one knows what it’s going to make landfall at let alone the fact that cat3 is still bad anyway. Just a terrible situation no matter how it’s sliced 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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