snowlover2 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Are we putting the Helene remnant discussion in this thread? Because I've been talking about it in the September obs thread. I figured me might as well use this thread for Helene also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Ok. Here's my post from a couple hours ago Curious to see how things unfold across the Ohio Valley tomorrow. There's a scenario where winds are tamer with very few trees knocked down/power outages, and then there's a scenario where that's a bit more widespread. Models generally agree on maintaining a core of >70 kt winds at 850 mb with Helene/remnant Helene, with some models more in the 80-100 kt range. However, this is largely in an area that is expected to have a lot of clouds and precip, which results in fairly weak low level lapse rates and calls into question how much mixing will occur. We often see this kind of scenario with our typical stronger synoptic systems. Some of the modeled rain bands do look pretty intense, which could try to force some of that higher momentum aloft through the relatively stable layer, but the question is to what extent. Something I'm also thinking about is that the Ohio Valley almost never sees winds of this potential strength from a north/east direction with trees that have full leaf coverage, so I wonder how that might come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 This is a pretty wild setup in the big picture. The low center looks to go from Florida to Kentucky in about 12-15 hours, which is almost unheard of for tropical remnants. The interaction/fujiwhara with the upper low will also cause a slower rate of weakening than usual for a tropical remnant. Anomalous setups can produce anomalous results, so while we have an idea of what will happen, wouldn't be shocked if it overperforms. As mentioned before, it's very unusual for the Ohio Valley to get such strong north/east winds with trees that have full leaf coverage, so I think that's a wild card. Could cause more problems than winds of similar magnitude from a different direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is a pretty wild setup in the big picture. The low center looks to go from Florida to Kentucky in about 12-15 hours, which is almost unheard of for tropical remnants. The interaction/fujiwhara with the upper low will also cause a slower rate of weakening than usual for a tropical remnant. Anomalous setups can produce anomalous results, so while we have an idea of what will happen, wouldn't be shocked if it overperforms. As mentioned before, it's very unusual for the Ohio Valley to get such strong north/east winds with trees that have full leaf coverage, so I think that's a wild card. Could cause more problems than winds of similar magnitude from a different direction. That's a really good point. This has potential to be one of the worst storms as far as total impact in quite some time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: That's a really good point. This has potential to be one of the worst storms as far as total impact in quite some time The wind field aloft with this is similar in strength to Ike. BUT, the difference is that mixing was very efficient with Ike because there was a lot of sun that day. So I'm not saying this will be an Ike repeat. But depending on how things play out, it's possible that it could end up being the most noteworthy tropical remnant in the region since then. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The 18z HWRF, which initialized the pressure quite well, still has this in the upper 960s when it enters Kentucky. HWRF has been running deeper all along and I assumed it was overdone, but now I'm not so sure. That would just be so far out of bounds of what has happened with remnant tropical systems in the OV before that it makes it hard to believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 (edited) 0z HRRR has 980s well into KY. I think the sudden increase in wind will catch some peeps off-guard as this thing is moving quite fast. Definitely will be a cool sight to see especially if we get the stronger solutions to verify in the OHV. Edited September 27 by junior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: The 18z HWRF, which initialized the pressure quite well, still has this in the upper 960s when it enters Kentucky. HWRF has been running deeper all along and I assumed it was overdone, but now I'm not so sure. That would just be so far out of bounds of what has happened with remnant tropical systems in the OV before that it makes it hard to believe. It's just how this year has been. Record number of tornadoes in Ohio then an extreme drought. Storm being that strong still would not surprise me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 I think watching the pressure as it moves up through Georgia will give an idea of what the strength will be like in Kentucky. If the rate of decay seems much slower than usual, a la HWRF, then it'll be an early indicator. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 This is a very unique situation unfolding. Will watching this to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Ok, so the 2 am update from NHC has the pressure at 955 mb. This is several mb higher than many of the hurricane models had at this time. But most of the other models are too high. So if trends continue, then perhaps some compromise between the hurricane models and the globals/HRRR will prove best as we move through the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Getting some help with the drought in widespread fashion today and the potential for some damaging winds. Gonna be a Good Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 I see were under a high wind warning. Fair upgrade for sure. It’s gonna be interesting when the low whips around violently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 So far, here in St. Louis, rainfall amounts have been routine: about an eighth of an inch in six hours. Winds were becoming gusty by 2-3 a.m. One state away, in Tennessee, however, rain amounts could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 3 hours ago, Snow____ said: Getting some help with the drought in widespread fashion today and the potential for some damaging winds. Gonna be a Good Friday. But Good Friday isn’t until April 18, far removed from hurricane season. Since hurricane season usually peaks around September 10, that means that March 10 is the peak of anti- hurricane season in the northern hemisphere… The rain became moderate as soon as I stepped outside. I like the temperature outside, but it will be an adventure walking to the library to work on my freelance writing projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Bit of an observation data hole makes it tough to tell how deep the surface low is right now. Because of that, wouldn't trust mesoanalysis and the center could also still be fairly concentrated with full extratropical transition not being complete yet. The update from NHC about 90 minutes ago said 975 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Quite a few mping reports of wind damage in northern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 30 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Quite a few mping reports of wind damage in northern KY. Lexington with a 61 mph gust so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 This system has smashed the all-time record low pressure for a tropical system or extratropical remnant in Kentucky, and it's not even close to anything else on record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Those winds are howling. My wife is at her mothers house and a big portion of their tree fell and is blocking the driveway. She was going to the casino but not anymore as they are trapped in now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Wind and rain picking up with the main show on our doorstep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 This is pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Got added to the wind advisory here. Looks a bit marginal but have already been gusting over 30 mph pretty often so could envision getting near criteria later. Modela also keying in on a narrow band of potentially decent rain somewhere around here on the northern periphery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 Tornado warning for Chillicothe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 (edited) Went outside to secure some new plants. It’s bad out there. Friend recorded some trees splitting and large branches down already. Also power outages starting to show. Edited September 27 by junior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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