snowlover2 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 (edited) Marginal threat south of the Ohio River today. Slight risk has been added to E KY and a 2% tornado area also added along/north of I-70 in Ohio/NE IN. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Edited September 26 by snowlover2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2% is certainly marginal, but we're rignt in the middle of that here in Central Ohio. What I'd really like is a long, steady rain and some lighting/thunder, if nothing else to remember what storms are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 24 Author Share Posted September 24 Thunderstorm watch here until 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 24 Author Share Posted September 24 Tornado warning near Louisville KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Meanwhile, here in Central Ohio, just clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 (edited) Bunch of discrete cells popping in the area and to the west of the border in Indiana. A few showers up this way right now but nothing concerning. Edited September 24 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Tornado warned storm just now passing to my east. With another cell to my southwest with some minor rotation. Guess that local mini tornado threat materialized after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 (edited) outside the severe thunderstorm watch of the day Quote * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 425 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Ligonier, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. Edited September 24 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 24 Author Share Posted September 24 Tornado warning west of Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 24 Author Share Posted September 24 Local news just said spotters see a funnel between Eaton and West Alexandria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Sounds like there's significant damage near LaGrange, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Multiple discrete cells popping in NW Ohio in an area of 2-2500 CAPE. Warning was extended for the confirmed cell that was near Ligonier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Slight risk and severe thunderstorm watch up here now. First watch in quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Baseball size hail in northern OKC metro 😳 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 not too many severe reports, and no tornado reports that I know of recently. But we're happy to have rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Need the rain here, and nothing since around 8:00 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 This supercell might get a tornado warning near Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 25 Author Share Posted September 25 41 minutes ago, Chinook said: This supercell might get a tornado warning near Cleveland And it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: And it is. This cell seemed consistent with the rotation in northern Ohio. I wouldn’t be surprised if a tornado is confirmed in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Tornado was confirmed in Preble county . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Extended the dates to cover the tropical impacts. Wind advisory just issued here for tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Really starting to get concerned about power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Are we putting the Helene remnant discussion in this thread? Because I've been talking about it in the September obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 52 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Are we putting the Helene remnant discussion in this thread? Because I've been talking about it in the September obs thread. Yes. I think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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