Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 (edited) Early frames of Icon (out to only 9 hrs) and we have 10mb deeper than its 12z run which ended up as a 941mb at landfall. Edit: Interestingly the IKE comes on shore around 948mb this run. I suppose that close a difference may not say anything much at this juncture. Edited September 25 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 On the other side of Mexico is John. John ramped up very quickly, blew away intensity forecasts and made landfall at 120mph. It then dissipated. Today it's a tropical storm again and is expected to become a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Here's what I know about this tool - at some parts of the day, the center cloud tops are the coolest, and at other times, the outer bands are. Based on the images, I'd say we are at the time that the outerbands are the coolest. Now it says the arrow is the "arrival" of the next cycle and 12 LST is 1pm ET or 12pm CT. It's 345 ET now. It looks like the 400-600km bands are the coldest. Does the center ramp up again? Oh the arrow moves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 (edited) CAT4 mention The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24 hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening. Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland. Edited September 25 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 8 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED This is a bunch of models in Cat 4 territory - 12z suite. SHIPS has been pretty consistent as a near Cat 4 18z Consensus models have also come in near Cat 4. Sonde in the center had 975mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 20 foot agl surge + waves The chasers livestreams on this one are gonna be lit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 (edited) To me, it sure looks like it's a caged animal straining at its confines - ready to charge out into the Gulf. Feasting on the ample warmth below, with increasingly raging intensity. This layering is difficult to see details - I put them in so as to show: moderate shear in the direct path of Helene - a point for delayed or blunted intensification countering that is the aforementioned SSTs + convergence (favorable for rapid rise/fall of air/moisture within the column) + divergence (favorable venting of the top of the cyclone) I'm positing that the SHR < the others combined, allowing for a deep dive in very short order. Edited September 25 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 25 Admin Share Posted September 25 Who is getting this week's 1 in a 1,000 year storm? Edit: rain event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Just now, MaineJay said: Who is getting this week's 1 in a 1,000 year storm? Those were supposed to be dog years mj 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 I’m in a golf tournament Friday and hopefully into the weekend. Helene, have fun in Georgia and Tennessee and stay there thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 3 minutes ago, Rickrd said: I’m in a golf tournament Friday and hopefully into the weekend. Helene, have fun in Georgia and Tennessee and stay there thank you very much! Greens should be receptive - no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Greens should be receptive - no? They sucked in qualifying! Theres been no rain. Hard as a rock. Had to run them on which is always a gamble. Once on green, they were the best greens you’d ever putt on. Fast as a rocket! Which i love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Just now, Rickrd said: They sucked in qualifying! Theres been no rain. Hard as a rock. Had to run them on which is always a gamble. Once on green, they were the best greens you’d ever putt on. Fast as a rocket! Which i love! If you’re not used to greens running at a 13, you were 4 and 5 putting, which many guys did. One guy took a 14 on hole and walked off the course! Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: They sucked in qualifying! Theres been no rain. Hard as a rock. Had to run them on which is always a gamble. Once on green, they were the best greens you’d ever putt on. Fast as a rocket! Which i love! It's done nothing but rain here all week so far. Up to almost two inches over the past three days. I canceled twice because, well because I'm a wimp, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 25 Admin Share Posted September 25 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: Oh the arrow moves... So I did some digging and found a paper on it. This is an expirament currently being run. Scientists have noticed that in the evening (at about sunset) a cold ring of high altitude clouds which propogate outwards overnight. There is a question as to how it affects the intesity of the Cyclone with a hyopthesis that these may indicate gravity waves as well as enhanced outflow in a particular layer of the Troposphere. It appears that this is just a coordination with aircraft hunters currently and a phenemenon which has been observed but as of yet, unknown as to why it is happening. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/HFP2015/11-TC_Diurnal_exp.pdf 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 18z Dang HMON came in deeper* - mid 920's HAFS-B similar HAFS-A slightly weaker ~940. *compared to prior run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 37 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Greens should be receptive - no? 31 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: It's done nothing but rain here all week so far. Up to almost two inches over the past three days. I canceled twice because, well because I'm a wimp, tbh. We got nothing here in lehigh valley. Rain wouod be welcomed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 2 minutes ago, Rickrd said: We got nothing here in lehigh valley. Rain wouod be welcomed Mushroom foraging is excellent here, fwiw . We get a quarter here, 4 tenths there - mostly drizzling at best. But ALLLLLLLL day and night. Making that worse, Helene rems combined with that ULL inland and they try to form a costal situation that socks us in until next Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 974 mb (28.76 inches). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 32 minutes ago, Sentinel said: So I did some digging and found a paper on it. This is an expirament currently being run. Scientists have noticed that in the evening (at about sunset) a cold ring of high altitude clouds which propogate outwards overnight. There is a question as to how it affects the intesity of the Cyclone with a hyopthesis that these may indicate gravity waves as well as enhanced outflow in a particular layer of the Troposphere. It appears that this is just a coordination with aircraft hunters currently and a phenemenon which has been observed but as of yet, unknown as to why it is happening. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/HFP2015/11-TC_Diurnal_exp.pdf I feel like we've been seeing this since at least 6 to 8 years. Definitely seeing the evening strengthening imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 26 Admin Share Posted September 26 Outflow is quite impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 May have to be concerned with strong wind gust in the Ohio Valley 🤔 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looks like an eye is starting to form 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 (edited) Edited September 26 by clm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 (edited) measured 975-973 is impressive, with zones of 70kt at flight level. You would think this could be 90 kt if the situation was a bit different. Edited September 26 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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