Cat 4 Hurricane Helene | 140mph 938mb | Landfall Big Bend/Perry

[Undertakerson2.0]

Pilot to bombardier, pilot to bombardier...

[Undertakerson2.0]

54 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Wonder if that "dry" air coming in disrupts or delays things.

That dry punch is not aloft, seems to be some small faction of dry coming off of Mex/Centrl America. I would think a rapidly deepening system will be able to "cough that out" with relative ease. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

The shear, I guess associated with the continental trough, might be some sort of inhibitor - there's a while, a half day give or take for that to relax as well. 

 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

12z Euro and GFS came in as essentially carbon copies with pressures in mid 950's (~landfall). 

I'm extrapolating and guesstimating big time, think that this can go lower 940's 

 

Edited September 25 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

Gotta cringe at how TWC (playing on mute in the background) passes off Generac commercials as actual storm coverage 😖

[Undertakerson2.0]

HAFS-A is now sub 930mb and HAFS-B is sub 940 - kind of a flip flop from 6z for both. 

 

Edited September 25 by Undertakerson2.0

[1816]

I saw the surge forecast for the worst of it updated to 12-18 ft. 

I'm trying to wrap my mind around 18 feet of storm surge. 

Edited September 25 by 1816

[Undertakerson2.0]

Looks as if that dry air that Stretch mentioned is, at least for now, steadying the scene. Weakening flag in On for two cycles in a row now. 

Likely a very temporary pause. It's got far too much going "for it" currently.

Might could keep it from going high end 3, I suppose. Not that that makes a ton of difference. This one WILL leave its mark 

[clm]

9 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I saw the surge forecast for the worst of it updated to 12-18 ft. 

I'm trying to wrap my mind around 18 feet of storm surge. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

GINORmous

Edited September 25 by Undertakerson2.0

[StretchCT]

Cancun radar

 

 

Edited September 25 by StretchCT

[MaineJay]

Internet sucks at work, so can't post a lip, but looking like she might wrap that convection soon.

[StretchCT]

Here's what I know about this tool - at some parts of the day, the center cloud tops are the coolest, and at other times, the outer bands are.  Based on the images, I'd say we are at the time that the outerbands are the coolest.

Now it says the arrow is the "arrival" of the next cycle and 12 LST is 1pm ET or 12pm CT.  It's 345 ET now.  It looks like the 400-600km bands are the coldest. Does the center ramp up again?

[clm]

That was weird.  Loop wouldn't post as below for a while.  Just the link.  Created a new post and it worked.  

 

Edited September 25 by clm

[1816]

4 minutes ago, clm said:

That was weird.  Loop wouldn't post as below for a while.  Just the link.  Created a new post and it worked.  

 

It's taking shape. That is one big mamajama. Why do I get the feeling it's about to do like the hulk when the hulk gets angry. 

[clm]

3 minutes ago, 1816 said:

It's taking shape. That is one big mamajama. Why do I get the feeling it's about to do like the hulk when the hulk gets angry. 

Spanning a few states, its getting strong in a hurry.

 

[1816]

8 minutes ago, clm said:

That was weird.  Loop wouldn't post as below for a while.  Just the link.  Created a new post and it worked.  

 

Question for you knowledgeable ones:

Those clouds up and down the east coast of Florida on the NE side of the storm look explosive for lack of a better term. I don't recall seeing a feature that popped like that before. Is it like suctioning more go go juice off the Gulf stream or something?

[1816]

I hope @Rush is having a good time. Evrn if the crowds are normal sized its way better to fight through them in overcast rainy weather than to stand in the broiling sauna like when the sun is out. 

[StretchCT]

I don't think that the operational models do a great job at intensity, but the track I look at. The other aspect to consider regarding strength is how the storm behaves as it progresses. The 12z runs of GFS, Graphcast, Euro, AIFS, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM and ICON all have the storm peak right at or before landfall.  So it strengthens all the way until land. The FV3, RGEM, HRRR, HWRF-NSSL, HWRF-ARW and RFFS also show this.  The RAP and NAM are the only two that show a weakening of a couple of mb before eyewall hits. The SREF also shows this weakening.  We'll find out tomorrow if the NAM/SREF is correct or not. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

4 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Question for you knowledgeable ones:

Those clouds up and down the east coast of Florida on the NE side of the storm look explosive for lack of a better term. I don't recall seeing a feature that popped like that before. Is it like suctioning more go go juice off the Gulf stream or something?

...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight.

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Some sort of center jump to the NW going on? The yellow area above Yuca is taking over where the larger red area - immediately E of Yuca, is having its stuffing knocked around. 

[1816]

11 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I don't think that the operational models do a great job at intensity, but the track I look at. The other aspect to consider regarding strength is how the storm behaves as it progresses. The 12z runs of GFS, Graphcast, Euro, AIFS, UKMET, CMC, NAVGEM and ICON all have the storm peak right at or before landfall.  So it strengthens all the way until land. The FV3, RGEM, HRRR, HWRF-NSSL, HWRF-ARW and RFFS also show this.  The RAP and NAM are the only two that show a weakening of a couple of mb before eyewall hits. The SREF also shows this weakening.  We'll find out tomorrow if the NAM/SREF is correct or not. 

Man I wouldn't want to pin my hopes on nam/rap vs everyone

[Hail_On_Me]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Some sort of center jump to the NW going on? The yellow area above Yuca is taking over where the larger red area - immediately E of Yuca, is having its stuffing knocked around. 

It's processing the dry air that finally made its way into the COC.   Outer bands starting to crank up and the core also looks to be building back up.    Lots of wind sheer to the north in the middle of the GOM right now should limit RI possibilities for the current moment. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

13 minutes ago, Hail_On_Me said:

It's processing the dry air that finally made its way into the COC.   Outer bands starting to crank up and the core also looks to be building back up.    Lots of wind sheer to the north in the middle of the GOM right now should limit RI possibilities for the current moment. 

I suspect that is the case. 

Was just asking for others to also layer information. Thank you for doing so.