Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 From Florida to Honduras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 Up to 120mph forecast. RI expected no change since 8pm FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 19.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 She's definitely organizing. There is still some dry air on the south side of the center of circulation that will hopefully be the fly in the ointment and slow the bus down. Additionally, her outflow to the north and east is strong, but the west is lacking at the moment. The current wind field shows this as well. It all adds up to the fact that our storm is still lopsided. I leave with an IR image from GOES. Good night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Getting better organized 😬 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 25 Admin Share Posted September 25 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Getting better organized 😬 Outflow looks like it is becoming rather established, the shear appears to be relaxing and the trough interaction may actually be starting to assist here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 That last plume seems to have settled over / into the coc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 On 9/23/2024 at 5:50 PM, Undertakerson2.0 said: A former Cat in Springfield?? 😮 (sorry, couldn't resist) The former cat must be a dog in Springfield. Some dry locales are looking to get heavy end-of- month rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Looks as if the Hurricane models continue to come in very hot. I think I saw 920-something on one of them. (my eyes are still waking up) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 25 Admin Share Posted September 25 Some chilly tops in there. Wonder if the circulation is still a little broad. I did see the stuff about a large storm, so that might makeb some sense at this point in the life cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 If I've learned anything these past years, it's to not worry too much what it looks like at this point as far as the outcome. Rapid intensification seems pretty rapid these days, and with plenty of time over water still to go it won't take long to go all out buzzsaw mode. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 12 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Interesting snippet from USA Today article, quoting WPC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 ADT pressure estimates are plummeting and T scores increasing RN. Flags are in the off position It's getting ready to ruuummmmmbbblllleee! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 24 minutes ago, 1816 said: If I've learned anything these past years, it's to not worry too much what it looks like at this point as far as the outcome. Rapid intensification seems pretty rapid these days, and with plenty of time over water still to go it won't take long to go all out buzzsaw mode. At the heart of everything is the core. Once the coc is figured out and organized, your point is completely valid. Beryl went from TD to Cat 4 in 2 days which broke a lot of previous thinking about Atlantic hurricanes in the early season. If Beryl can do that with time and location in mind, Helene’s location would allow for it as well and maybe more as water temps are higher in the gulf than they were for Beryl. The hope is that the storm will be dogged with structural issues which continues to delay RI. Current obs though…As has been stated, the coc is under the higher cloud tops, and the drier air is being worked out. In the last 8 hours she’s looking even better with outflows as well. My best guess is that when she clears the Yucatán it’s off to the races, but still keeping the fingers crossed for some inhibitor to slow her down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: ADT pressure estimates are plummeting and T scores increasing RN. Flags are in the off position It's getting ready to ruuummmmmbbblllleee! Well..let’s play the limbo, how low can she go? 😀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...HELENE JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 86.2W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Water vapor view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Whoa! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Whoa! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Snow Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Whoa! The conundrum of meteorology, how fascinating to watch if that were to play out, but how terrifying for anyone in its path. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said: The conundrum of meteorology, how fascinating to watch if that were to play out, but how terrifying for anyone in its path. We all thought that surge in ft myers was impressive, but helene might make us forget all about that. Unfortunately the storm surge from this one is going to be pretty legendary. When the ocean decides to come on to land things can get sideways quickly. Hopefully people get out of harms way but there's always some who just won't. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 25 Author Moderators Share Posted September 25 Down 12mb in 9 hrs. 6mb in last 3hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Sunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 On the cusp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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