Cat 4 Hurricane Helene | 140mph 938mb | Landfall Big Bend/Perry

[Undertakerson2.0]

A narrow window for it to come through the center of the Straits - so we'll have to see. 

To me, the oranges seem well poised to do just that. I'm using 990mb-999mb heights because ADT has it as 996 RN

Edit - caching error caught the image of 3 hours prior. Here's the newest one... Still looks center sliced to me. 

Edited September 24 by Undertakerson2.0

[1816]

Man I'm really not liking a lot of this. This surge could be way beyond what we are used to seeing. A very large storm, right in the worst spot for it. And then taking the wind damage tour of the southeast not to mention twisters. Yuck. 

Edited September 24 by 1816

[Undertakerson2.0]

12Z Euro came in 10-12mb deeper than its 00z run - at landfall. It seems to have little to no land interaction at the Yuca Straits

 

Global resolution will not capture the depths very clearly even at this lead time - so it's kind of fwiw. 

[Burr]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[Undertakerson2.0]

I'm not seeing anything that would prevent RI as it gets past the YP.

I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt that I am. 

[Psu1313]

6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I'm not seeing anything that would prevent RI as it gets past the YP.

I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt that I am. 

 Looking at the environmental factors...

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

 Looking at the environmental factors...

Hey, (pffft) if you don't like my forecast (pffft)  - there's no need to get (pfft) personal about it. 😉🫠🤫😇

Oh! Wait...

[Undertakerson2.0]

995mb - 45Kts in the 5pm update. 

Warm sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and strong
upper-level divergence are likely to foster Helene's strengthening
while it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern
Gulf of Mexico.  The statistical-dynamical SHIPS/LGEM models, as
well as the regional hurricane models, continue to show Helene
reaching major hurricane intensity while over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and that continues to be shown in the NHC forecast.  Helene
could maintain that level of intensity until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida. - NHC

 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

18z GFS coming in deeper than it did at 12z, as it ejects from the Caribbean and into the GOM

963mb at landfall. 12z was 973mb. Edit - actually closer to 967mb vs 972mb

Edited September 24 by Undertakerson2.0

[StretchCT]

AI/RI 

[Undertakerson2.0]

The Hurricane models follow suit at 18z - they are also noteably deeper than their 12z runs. They only brush the Yuca coast - don't go inland. 

Edited September 24 by Undertakerson2.0

[StretchCT]

Goodnight Helene - some lighting popping last minute in the center.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Interesting snippet from USA Today article, quoting WPC

[StretchCT]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

[StretchCT]

NAM Gusts shifted a little east 12z vs 18z

NAM 3k is always fun to look at during tropical events.  It does ok with precip on the slower storms, but the wind here is crazy.

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

Winds not too bad at this buoy. Pressure fell to 991. Wind shifted to ESE from N and NE. Top gust was 35kts at 12:10

[1816]

44 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Interesting snippet from USA Today article, quoting WPC

I'm glad we live in a world where the singer in Van Halen can go on to a successful career tracking hurricanes. 

🎵Track the night away🎵

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I'm glad we live in a world where the singer in Van Halen can go on to a successful career tracking hurricanes. 

🎵Track the night away🎵

DLR would certainly know about overly intense models.

"well I'm just a gigolo,every where I go ..." 

[1816]

Tangentially related it's been storming here with heavy rain this evening.  It rained lightly all day today and supposed to continue like this all week. 

 

If Helene remnants makes it's way to these parts it's gonna be at a bad time.  Gonna be saturated by then. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, 1816 said:

Tangentially related it's been storming here with heavy rain this evening.  It rained lightly all day today and supposed to continue like this all week. 

 

If Helene remnants makes it's way to these parts it's gonna be at a bad time.  Gonna be saturated by then. 

Whoa - look at you Mr Power Vocabulary! 

Me like. 🙂 

Now, about that sentence fragment at the end...

[1816]

1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Whoa - look at you Mr Power Vocabulary! 

Me like. 🙂 

Now, about that sentence fragment at the end...

I have the ability to be gramatically correct but between my fat fingers, this tiny keyboard, and the autocorrect thats about all I can manage without chucking the phone out the window. 

[StretchCT]

Wind up 10 pressure down 4 in last 3 hours.

Saw some flight winds of 60+mph but sfmr doesn't seem to be working on mission 7 and 8. 

Edited September 25 by StretchCT

[Jon Snow]

53 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I have the ability to be gramatically correct but between my fat fingers, this tiny keyboard, and the autocorrect thats about all I can manage without chucking the phone out the window. 

As long as you don't leave your participle dangling its all good.