Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 (edited) 29 minutes ago, 1816 said: Yes sir I just expect to get laughed out of the room with the cat 5 stuff. But if it happened I know one person that would not be the least surprised. Edit: in other words I'm not feeling conservative at all about this cyclone. There are some cat fives in the hurricane models. A lot will depend on how quick it forms and where. Edited September 23 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: There are some cat fives in the hurricane models. A lot will depend on how quick it forms and where. Aye. One thing about big bend landfalls: they maximize time over water. The shallowest hottest water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: The 5 pm. came out right as I sat down to supper. I missed the graphic that, in fact, shows it as a "M" Man that extended cone takes it places the dying remnants of tropical cyclones just don't go. They ain't ready for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 minute ago, 1816 said: Man that extended cone takes it places the dying remnants of tropical cyclones just don't go. They ain't ready for that. A former Cat in Springfield?? 😮 (sorry, couldn't resist) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 (edited) 92 degrees and humid here at Disney today. Just spent 10 hours in the parks. Planning on spending Thursday at Epcot. Hoping they don't close the parks. Order my kids new rain jackets off Amazon to be delivered here. I don't believe they closed the parks for hurricane Michael, which hit big bend as a cat 5 in 2018. What page is th best for displaying model surface wind prediction? Edited September 23 by Rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: A former Cat in Springfield?? 😮 (sorry, couldn't resist) Well anyone from hispaniola will feel right at home in a tc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Rush said: 92 degrees and humid here at Disney today. Just spent 10 hours in the parks. Planning on spending Thursday at Epcot. Hoping they don't close the parks. Order my kids new rain jackets off Amazon to be delivered here. I don't believe they closed the parks for hurricane Michael, which hit big bend as a cat 5 in 2018. What page is th best for displaying model surface wind prediction? Lol I was at Disney when Michael hit. No effect on the parks. They were crowded as hell. I was longing for what I told you about when the storm went right over Orlando. Edit: now that I think about it we did have one rainy day. Not sure if it was related to Michael. Was the most pleasant day because of the lower air temp. But still crazy crowded. Edited September 23 by 1816 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Rush said: 92 degrees and humid here at Disney today. Just spent 10 hours in the parks. Planning on spending Thursday at Epcot. Hoping they don't close the parks. Order my kids new rain jackets off Amazon to be delivered here. I don't believe they closed the parks for hurricane Michael, which hit big bend as a cat 5 in 2018. What page is th best for displaying model surface wind prediction? 12z GFS - Max Gusts through 8pm Thursday. Note it's knots. Edited September 23 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 (edited) 15 minutes ago, 1816 said: Man that extended cone takes it places the dying remnants of tropical cyclones just don't go. They ain't ready for that. The bend to the northwest that long after landfall is unusual. Usually with moving NNE in the Gulf, it would continue that motion or turn even more eastward with time. Just goes to show the atypical upper level pattern. Don't have great model agreement on the post-landfall track though and how much of a northwest turn there will be. How much interaction there will be with the upper level low is a bit of a question mark. Maybe someone here can elaborate on this, but I recall reading (many years ago) that a stronger hurricane is more likely to stay separate and not get fully absorbed by an ull/trough. Is that correct and if so, why? Edited September 23 by Hoosier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 5 minutes ago, 1816 said: Lol I was at Disney when Michael hit. No effect on the parks. They were crowded as hell. I was longing for what I told you about when the storm went right over Orlando. Edit: now that I think about it we did have one rainy day. Not sure if it was related to Michael. Was the most pleasant day because of the lower air temp. But still crazy crowded. It was crowded today. I thought this was the quiet season. I got us a fast pass and we did all but one ride in Hollywood Studios. My kids are 7, 6, and 2. They are pooped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I recall reading (many years ago) that a stronger hurricane is more likely to stay separate and not get fully absorbed by an ull/trough It does for a while, but without any extra energy, it depletes quickly over the Apps. Euro in spoiler shows it a bit better maybe. Once it's 1000mb just gets absorbed. Pretty decent ridge to the east too. Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 11 minutes ago, Rush said: It was crowded today. I thought this was the quiet season. I got us a fast pass and we did all but one ride in Hollywood Studios. My kids are 7, 6, and 2. They are pooped. I hope this one has some decent effects on central fl. Just because I know what it looks like in those parks when people stay away. They won't close unless it's a direct hit but if you can get the masses to chicken out you'll have an amazing experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 23 Admin Share Posted September 23 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The bend to the northwest that long after landfall is unusual. Usually with moving NNE in the Gulf, it would continue that motion or turn even more eastward with time. Just goes to show the atypical upper level pattern. Don't have great model agreement on the post-landfall track though and how much of a northwest turn there will be. How much interaction there will be with the upper level low is a bit of a question mark. Maybe someone here can elaborate on this, but I recall reading (many years ago) that a stronger hurricane is more likely to stay separate and not get fully absorbed by an ull/trough. Is that correct and if so, why? Strong Hurricanes are very efficient heat engines. As long as they remain strong, they will continue to be their own entity and follow the path of least resistance. As the heat engine breaks down, however, outside forces begin to exert even more force on it. In turn, the heat engine begins to truly degrade and the only way to continue is baroclinicity. Troughs offer this and thus the trough will observed the storm as it becomes baroclinic vs a heat engine. Of course, this is somewhat non-technical, but I believe it should explain the gist of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 HWRF trend is weakening at 36 hrs. Still gets it to major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 HMON 18z landfall has same wind speed but is 12mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 (edited) HAFSA has backed off a lot! 36 hrs from now. 12z then 18z. This is why the next 24 hrs matters so much. Edited September 24 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I just find it crazy how many storms have targeted the big bend region over the last few years. It’s actually not all that easy to get storms to go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 24 Author Moderators Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: I just find it crazy how many storms have targeted the big bend region over the last few years. It’s actually not all that easy to get storms to go there. I wanted to look that up at work but couldn't find the link. Thanks for the reminder. 23 hurricanes passed through here since 1852. More impressively, 64 tropical storms. Some might be counted as both if it went from cane to ts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 hours ago, Rush said: It was crowded today. I thought this was the quiet season. I got us a fast pass and we did all but one ride in Hollywood Studios. My kids are 7, 6, and 2. They are pooped. Was there last week, it wasn't really crowded at all. Wait time for Thunder said 55 minutes, we waited 15. Rise said 60, we waited 40. Wasn't bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 NHC backing down intensity as well. No shock given the 00z suite runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 HMON still very intense HMON-P is also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 NHC discussion in part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 HAFS-A 937mb: slightly stronger than previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 26 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: NHC backing down intensity as well. No shock given the 00z suite runs. 5 a.m. has it back up to a Major at Landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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