Cat 4 Hurricane Helene | 140mph 938mb | Landfall Big Bend/Perry

[Burr]

939mb on that pass

[Burr]

Just now, StretchCT said:

Almost there

Bump

[StretchCT]

7.5 ft surge at Cedar Key with gusts to 73 kts

[Burr]

[NWOhioChaser]

Landfall imminent.

[StretchCT]

East Bay flooding - these are all 6-7ft surges.  None of the stations from Steinhatchee to Apalachicola are reporting flooding. 

Clearwater as seen in videos is flooded.

  

Port Manatee

FT Myers further south is flooding again but surge is 4-5 feet

[Burr]

The hunters really enjoying some searching within the eye as landfall imminent… looks like 938. (Edit: 937.7)

 

Edited September 27 by Burr

[Burr]

And they’re out.  There was a 937.2 in there on the last pass

 

 

[1816]

I hope no one goes after the forecasters for not raising more alarms on this one. I absolutely feel for them. What a tough situation. It looked all day like it was going to stay on the struggle bus only to turn into a scary as hell 150 mph beast in a matter of hours. Such a tough one for them. I think they played it very well and they definitely kept the language in the advisories extremely cautionary without getting caught up splitting hairs about the category. Unfortunately category is all alot of people want to hear.  

[StretchCT]

Perry looks like the largest populated area getting the eyewall.  Seems quiet considering. 

They be like what storm???

Big Bend Preserve is a little more active

Shell Point on the western side seeing some wind.

Back on the east side further south in Cross City 

And it takes going to Chiefland to find some decent hurricane force gusts.

[Burr]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Perry looks like the largest populated area getting the eyewall.  Seems quiet considering. 

They be like what storm???

Big Bend Preserve is a little more active

Shell Point on the western side seeing some wind.

Back on the east side further south in Cross City 

And it takes going to Chiefland to find some decent hurricane force gusts.

Thank goodness there’s such a low population.  Human population, at least.  It’s heading into wildlife preserves.

[ak9971]

Ryan Halls stream has 3  in Perry Florida. Starting to get power flashes right in front of them. From the outer eye wall. 
 

 

Edited September 27 by ak9971

[NWOhioChaser]

5 minutes ago, Burr said:

Thank goodness there’s such a low population.  Human population, at least.  It’s heading into wildlife preserves.

Little mini pop there with that correctional institution there on the lower right lol. 

[Burr]

Just now, NWOhioChaser said:

Little mini pop there with that correctional institution there on the lower right lol. 

 

[Burr]

Traffic in Perry.

[StretchCT]

Sat angle looks like landfall. Radar from TLH isn't as convincing yet

[Burr]

Landfall?

 

[StretchCT]

[Snow____]

1 minute ago, Burr said:

Traffic in Perry.

Hopefully that’s just all weather people and not actual people driving about.

[Hoosier]

Landfall is getting pretty close.  Remember it's the center of the eye for official landfall.

[StretchCT]

I'm obviously not keeping up with all the tornados but they are out there. Even up in Roanoke VA - isnt that by @1816

Edited September 27 by StretchCT

[Burr]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

 

[StretchCT]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HURRICANE HELENE VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...
...ACCOMPANIED BY A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

[1816]

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I'm obviously not keeping up with all the tornados but they are out there. Even up in Roanoke VA - isnt that by @1816

Yep. Tornado warning up, I believe it was on the ground south of Roanoke.  

Definitely rainy and breezy at my location. 

[StretchCT]

Disco notes: about to make landfall. dropped 3mb an hour since this afternoon. 700mb winds were 136kt which correspond to 120kts (they note it may be conservative). Numerous mesocyclones rotating around the eyewall. Moving north 21kts.

Spoiler

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The hurricane is about to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend
region.  Timely observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed that Helene continued to strengthen rapidly
to Category 4 status before it approached the coast, with the
central pressure falling at about 3 mb per hour since this
afternoon.  Peak 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft were
136 kt, corresponding to an intensity of about 120 kt, which might
be a bit conservative.  Radar and satellite images show numerous
mesocyclones rotating around the eyewall.

The large hurricane continues moving rapidly north-northeastward
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 015/21 kt.  A
generally northward track is expected overnight, taking the center
from southern to northern Georgia through early Friday morning.
Later on Friday and Saturday, Helene should slow down considerably
while it interacts with a mid-level low to its northwest and west.
The weakening system is likely to become nearly stationary in 48-60
hours.  The official track forecast follows the dynamical model
consensus.

Although the system will weaken as it moves over land, the fast
forward speed of Helene during the next 12 hours or so will result
in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, particularly over Georgia, including
strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the
official forecast while Helene is inland.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is occurring along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves.  There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

2. Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are occurring near the coast
within the eyewall of Helene and will spread inland over portions
of northern Florida and southern Georgia.

3. Damaging wind gusts will penetrate well inland over portions of
Georgia and the Carolinas tonight, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians. Residents in these areas
should be prepared for the possibility of long-duration power
outages.  If you use a generator after the storm, be sure it is
placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and
garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

4. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river
flooding are likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 29.9N  83.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 33.9N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/0000Z 36.9N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  28/1200Z 36.8N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  29/0000Z 36.9N  86.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  29/1200Z 37.1N  86.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED