Cat 4 Hurricane Helene | 140mph 938mb | Landfall Big Bend/Perry

[NWOhioChaser]

Sure she looks better than she ever has, but that’s a very expansive wind field. Unless a tighter core can be established, I think Cat 4 is off the table. But she’s entering very warm and shallower water now..
 

She’s like an ice skater whose arms are outstretched right now. 

Edited September 26 by NWOhioChaser

[Undertakerson2.0]

Cat 2 now (8 a.m. update)

[FortySixAnd32]

2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Cat 2 now (8 a.m. update)

Going to happen quickly now...

[Undertakerson2.0]

The S Smokies are gonna get SMOKED with intense rain (and wind of course) 

That region of the S Apps is very steep terrain -results will be disastrous

Could might be worse damage there than in Florida? (Surge aside) 

We will get a study in orographic lift 

Edited September 26 by Undertakerson2.0

[Jon Snow]

Does look like the mountains of NC are already getting hit

 

[Jon Snow]

This was posted saying it was flashflooding in Asheville, NC

[FortySixAnd32]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10L3vvNt4sE

 

[Harley8778]

I have a lot of family in Asheville, NC. They are in for it, it appears.

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

This was posted saying it was flashflooding in Asheville, NC

OUCH! Tis one of our favorite vacation spots. We have friends on the Cherokee Reservation (the Hornbuckle's) this is NOT GOOD at all. 😞

[Undertakerson2.0]

Flood Warning Statement WFO Ashville NC

 

Edited September 26 by Undertakerson2.0

[StretchCT]

Good morning!

[Undertakerson2.0]

Winds are now close to 110mph and very close to the center. 

This will be fascinating to watch and worrisome at the same time

Edited September 26 by Undertakerson2.0

[Jon Snow]

I am in Roaonke, looks like the worst of the rain has stayed mostly west of us, but W NC has had a steady train of heavy rain, and sounds like much more to come.

 

[StretchCT]

5am disco notes: mixed signals, eye trying to clear, concentric eyewalls 16 and 32 nm wide, strongest winds 50nm outside the eyewall, concentric eyewalls are preventing rapid intensification.  As UTS noted, the top wind speed forecast is 115mph, barely a three, but it could intensify a bit further after that time. 

 

Spoiler

Hurricane Helene Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning.  On
one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports
that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite 
imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the
aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter, 
with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring 
about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the 
outer eyewall.  Based on the central pressure fall and the 
available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt.

The hurricane is starting its expected turn toward the 
north-northeast, with the initial motion now 015/10. The hurricane 
should accelerate north-northeastward during the next 24 h or so in 
the flow between a ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer 
baroclinic trough/cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley.  This 
motion should bring the center of Helene to the coast of the Florida 
Big Bend region Thursday evening or early Friday morning.  After 
landfall, Helene should turn northward and northwestward around the 
northeast and north side of the Tennessee Valley system.  After 48 
h, what is left of Helene should make a cyclonic loop as it merges 
with the baroclinic system.  The latest track guidance has nudged a 
little to the northeast, especially near 36 h, and the portion of 
the new forecast track over Georgia and Tennessee has been moved 
a bit to the east.  

Helene remains in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that is very conducive for strengthening,
with the system forecast to traverse the Loop Current while it
remains in a moist and low-shear environment.  The main restraining
factor on intensification is the current concentric eyewall status.  
All of the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening 
until landfall.  Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls 
for Helen to become a major hurricane in about 12 h, and additional 
intensification is expected in the ensuing 6 h period or so before 
landfall.  After landfall, Helene should weaken and undergo 
extratropical transition as it merges with the baroclinic system 
over the Tennessee Valley, and this is expected to be complete by 
about 36 h.  The remnant extratropical low is forecast to dissipate 
after 72 h based on global model forecasts.

Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida.   As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side.  In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.  Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest
the possibility that the inner wind core may persist until the
center reaches northern Georgia.  A higher-than-normal gust factor
is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves.  There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.  Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region later today.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed this morning before tropical
storm conditions arrive.  Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia later 
today and tonight where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.  Strong 
wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous significant landslides, is expected across
portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable
to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for
northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river
flooding are likely.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area.  Hurricane Helene will
bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with
potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 24.2N  86.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 26.8N  85.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 31.6N  84.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  27/1800Z 36.1N  84.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  28/0600Z 37.0N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  28/1800Z 36.3N  87.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  29/0600Z 36.3N  86.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Coming into view on the Tampa Bay radar.

[clm]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I have family in panama city and tampa area.  Thinking I should start making room for house guests.

What about all of us here at WXSphere?

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, clm said:

What about all of us here at WXSphere?

Oh, you are welcome to take on any you can.

[Undertakerson2.0]

Considerable to catastrophic
Moderate to Major flooding across much of the French Broad River and
Swannanoa River valleys is expected as a result of extremely rare
rainfall.  This flooding has the potential to rival the Major,
catastrophic flooding observed in September 2004 from Hurricanes
Frances and Ivan, especially from the French Broad River headwaters
near Rosman and Blantyre to Asheville.

 

The above is pulled from the discussion I posted. I didn't catch this then. 2004 was horrible - absolutely horrible for them. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Wtkidz]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The S Smokies are gonna get SMOKED with intense rain (and wind of course) 

That region of the S Apps is very steep terrain -results will be disastrous

Could might be worse damage there than in Florida? (Surge aside) 

We will get a study in orographic lift 

Very much agreed . It may come a bit further north. Just feeling. Dollywood  in Pigeon Forge may become Soggywood. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Off topic - don't look now but the CAG is gonna spit out a few more of these puppies

[Hail_On_Me]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Not to mention there are instances where a little shear actually facilitates RI

10-15 is usually good for RI, but 30 plus rips cloud tops apart.  As UT pointed out the water is unusually warm in the GOM, along with good convergence and divergence over the CoC is what it driving it right now.   There have not been many of those instances, but we could be looking at one here

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The S Smokies are gonna get SMOKED with intense rain (and wind of course) 

That region of the S Apps is very steep terrain -results will be disastrous

Could might be worse damage there than in Florida? (Surge aside) 

We will get a study in orographic lift 

 

Tropical system phasing with a strong upper level low (ULL); yea, occurs all the time, lol. 

Could that enhance severe threat east of SLP in OV?

[thebigo]

[clm]

7 minutes ago, thebigo said:

Nicely tight wrapped system.  Looking very healthy unfortunately.