Cat 4 Hurricane Helene | 140mph 938mb | Landfall Big Bend/Perry

[TheRex]

On 9/30/2024 at 11:14 AM, StretchCT said:

I'm a little, no a lot, tired of seeing social media posts saying that no one predicted how bad it would be.  That no one predicted hurricane force winds in Georgia or flooding in NC.  It was well predicted. Perhaps 48 hrs wasn't enough time but that's not up to the mets.  

One of the reasons I like using this forum is to be able to copy and paste statements from the weather service into a weather thread and then go back later to see the accuracy of those statements.  There are times when the weather service is caught flat footed, but I feel this wasn't one of those times.  They were throwing around the word "catastrophic" a lot in what I was reading before the storm hit.

[clm]

23 hours ago, Burr said:

Categorizing hurricanes by wind speed alone is another pet peeve of mine.  My uncle lives in the St Pete area, and he tells me very few people went to higher ground because the storm was going so far north.  Lots of water-damaged used cars will be getting scrapped or sold to unsuspecting buyers.

Sandy slapped the crap out of us with 80 mph wind speeds.  Normally that wouldn't have done as much damage had she just continued north, but she hit LI at high tide with a full moon AND decided to stay for a bit and hang a 90 degree left causing more damage.  

[BuckeyeGal]

I don’t have words for the devastation. My heart goes out to all affected. I sent my oldest off in a plane by himself just after the peak winds, and my stomach was in knots watching him taxi. I can’t imagine what it was like in the actual worst of it.

That being said and as respectfully as I can, I need to ask that we please keep politics out of this thread. We are here to discuss the weather (the good and bad of it). 

[Hoosier]

On 9/30/2024 at 10:14 AM, StretchCT said:

I'm a little, no a lot, tired of seeing social media posts saying that no one predicted how bad it would be.  That no one predicted hurricane force winds in Georgia or flooding in NC.  It was well predicted. Perhaps 48 hrs wasn't enough time but that's not up to the mets.  

Yeah, I don't really think the forecasts were the problem.  I think that even with it being well-forecasted, it was hard to comprehend the full magnitude of what was going to unfold.  

Something I was batting around in my head the other day... in hindsight, would a mass pre-storm evacuation of the mountain towns been warranted?  I realize that's a lot easier said than done though, and it would've involved a pretty large geographical area.  With it not being a coastal area, I'm sure there's no organized plan for anything like that.

When it comes to weather, sometimes it's just hard to avoid bad sh!t happening.

Edited 23 hours ago by Hoosier

[MaineJay]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I don't really think the forecasts were the problem.  I think that even with it being well-forecasted, it was hard to comprehend the full magnitude of what was going to unfold.  

Something I was batting around in my head the other day... in hindsight, would a mass pre-storm evacuation of the mountain towns been warranted?  I realize that's a lot easier said than done though, and it would've involved a pretty large geographical area.  With it not being a coastal area, I'm sure there's no organized plan for anything like that.

When it comes to weather, sometimes it's just hard to avoid bad sh!t happening.

   I think your last sentence sums it up succinctly. We do, and should search for answers to prevent these things, but the truth is, not every event can be foreseen.  

   Hoping that folks are able to get the help they need, the blame game is frustrating.  Everyone's to blame, and no one's to blame in reality, if that makes any sense.

[Burr]

This is a really good article covering the days and hours before the storm hit:
https://apple.news/AI546GOknR_CsCx8wm3zNGA

 

The warnings from the NWS were pretty damn clear that this is what was going to happen, IMO.  But people a) distrust authority/experts, and b) don’t recognize the severity of outlier events because they lack a frame of reference / historical perspective.  
 

The days before the event: NWS “pleading” and “cannot stress the significance of this event enough..”  Zoom calls with emergency crews.  People who knew, knew and did their best to communicate the fear.  But people grow numb to warnings when they’ve heard them before without feeling the full wrath in their own back yards.

Good people make bad decisions.  I hope we can get them the help they need, but recovery may not be possible for many.  It will be years of adversity. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Burr

[Burr]

12 hours ago, MaineJay said:

   I think your last sentence sums it up succinctly. We do, and should search for answers to prevent these things, but the truth is, not every event can be foreseen.  

   Hoping that folks are able to get the help they need, the blame game is frustrating.  Everyone's to blame, and no one's to blame in reality, if that makes any sense.

Yup.  Shit happens.  Life is empty and meaningless and doesn’t care about you.  Life goes on with or without you.

[Burr]

18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

 ... in hindsight, would a mass pre-storm evacuation of the mountain towns been warranted?  I realize that's a lot easier said than done though, and it would've involved a pretty large geographical area.  With it not being a coastal area, I'm sure there's no organized plan for anything like that.

I don’t think we have the collective will to both enact and to follow those orders.  In hindsight they definitely would have been warranted, but really tricky to decide whom to evacuate.  Can’t reasonably send the whole region to Raleigh/Durham or Knoxville. 

[Burr]

41 minutes ago, Burr said:

Yup.  Shit happens.  Life is empty and meaningless and doesn’t care about you.  Life goes on with or without you.

I’m really chipper this morning.

edit: The positive spin is that while life may not care, we are free to choose to care about others, which can bring profound joy even when surrounded by heartbreak.

Edited 4 hours ago by Burr

[Burr]

On that note, Ethan could be a kindred spirit.

https://apple.news/AT3fl5M2bRhadV1lxXRCU5Q

[Burr]

[btbucks]

11 minutes ago, Burr said:

On that note, Ethan could be a kindred spirit.

https://apple.news/AT3fl5M2bRhadV1lxXRCU5Q

Been following him for a week at the recommendation of a friend.