Cat 4 Hurricane Helene | 140mph 938mb | Landfall Big Bend/Perry

[Undertakerson2.0]

https://www.bpr.org/bpr-news/2024-09-28/list-ways-to-donate-and-help-flood-victims-in-western-north-carolina-after-hurricane-helene

[Burr]

4 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Yeah.  I stayed a couple long weekends in 2021.  Their cute downtowns are riverside in the valleys.  Couldn’t possibly be much left at all.  (We were hiking some of the trails to waterfalls in the nearby areas.)

 

Edited September 29 by Burr

[Burr]

Good news feed from a BBC affiliate reporting on the Appalachians.

https://www.bpr.org/live-updates/live-blog-hurricane-helene-wnc

 

[StretchCT]

[Sentinel]

I have been an emergency manager, first responder, medic, rescuer, risk manager or some combination of these for over 17 years. I have been through many deployments, storms, calls, etc. I have never witnessed this type of widespread devastation and catastrophe stateside. Ever. This includes living in NY though Sandy. It's sobering. 

That's not to say there have not been comparable disasters in United States history. Likewise, we will all get through this, of this I have no doubt. However, I say it again, it is truly sobering what is/has taken place across the Southeast. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Yep - when you are on a list with these names - you gonna get retired...

A veritable "murderers row" of infamy

 

Edited September 29 by Undertakerson2.0

[Tater]

People around here are having flashbacks to Nelson County in 1969 where several feet of rain fell overnight in a few hours as the remnants of Hurricane Camille coupled with some other systems in a completely unexpected devastating storm. The local catastrophic results were probably worse than Helene, but it was not as widespread.  

No doubt some of these areas will take decades to recover. Gonna be a rough time for those who have lost everything, including their way of earning a living.

[Undertakerson2.0]

5 hours ago, Tater said:

People around here are having flashbacks to Nelson County in 1969 where several feet of rain fell overnight in a few hours as the remnants of Hurricane Camille coupled with some other systems in a completely unexpected devastating storm. The local catastrophic results were probably worse than Helene, but it was not as widespread.  

No doubt some of these areas will take decades to recover. Gonna be a rough time for those who have lost everything, including their way of earning a living.

Man, that last sentence. Those of us who know the area well - realize how important their local econ is to their overall well being. The state has relatively few tax dollars to give out to start with - and most of that goes to the metros of the Triad and maybe Charlotte. But these remote regions lack any kind of large scale employers to sustain them .

One of our friend couples rely on income from their consignment shop. It may be a very harsh Winter season for them (not usually very good to start with) Let's face it - only so many convenience store and Dollar General jobs to go around. 

 

Edited Sunday at 10:05 PM by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

Through this - I have been communicating with a fella on a FB page for SkyWatchers. Turns out he is a multi-decade forecaster for NOAA named Robert Fenner. Anyway, he sent me a link to this video last night and even though many of us know or knew of what is discussed, I found it to be an effective way of recapping it all. A blend of meteo-geek and layman language all wrapped up into an understandable summary. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ5orhnYjzA

 

[StretchCT]

On 9/25/2024 at 9:59 PM, StretchCT said:

Having gotten 12 inches of rain in 8 hours a few weeks back, I can't imagine getting double that. 

The Nam3k is extreme, though. it's gotten some extreme events before. Some of the other models and their top rainfall totals (*is still raining). Most of these are in the Blue Ridge/Smokey Mt area

UKMET 17        ICON 17.5

GEM 15.5         Graphcast 7

GFS 15             AIFS 12

Euro 17             NAM 15.5

RAP 17.5.          RGEM 15

HRRR 23.          ARW 21*

NSSL 15*           RFFS 16.5.   NBM 17.5

 

I wasn't discounting the NAM3k.  It's done very well with rainfall amounts before. Wind/pressure not so much.

[StretchCT]

18 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Man, that last sentence. Those of us who know the area well - realize how important their local econ is to their overall well being. The state has relatively few tax dollars to give out to start with - and most of that goes to the metros of the Triad and maybe Charlotte. But these remote regions lack any kind of large scale employers to sustain them .

One of our friend couples rely on income from their consignment shop. It may be a very harsh Winter season for them (not usually very good to start with) Let's face it - only so many convenience store and Dollar General jobs to go around. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Through this - I have been communicating with a fella on a FB page for SkyWatchers. Turns out he is a multi-decade forecaster for NOAA named Robert Fenner. Anyway, he sent me a link to this video last night and even though many of us know or knew of what is discussed, I found it to be an effective way of recapping it all. A blend of meteo-geek and layman language all wrapped up into an understandable summary. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ5orhnYjzA

 

Definitely worth the watch.

[StretchCT]

 

Link of shared article. https://wapo.st/3TLEVuU

[StretchCT]

I'm a little, no a lot, tired of seeing social media posts saying that no one predicted how bad it would be.  That no one predicted hurricane force winds in Georgia or flooding in NC.  It was well predicted. Perhaps 48 hrs wasn't enough time but that's not up to the mets.  

[Undertakerson2.0]

Hearing the various local officials - PLEADING for water. 

Sometimes I truly LOVE irony. 

This is NOT one of those times. 

A veritable Rime of the Ancient Mariner x1000's

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

19 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I'm a little, no a lot, tired of seeing social media posts saying that no one predicted how bad it would be.  That no one predicted hurricane force winds in Georgia or flooding in NC.  It was well predicted. Perhaps 48 hrs wasn't enough time but that's not up to the mets.  

I thought the same thing so many times lately. I partly blame this general mistrust of government and media (I won't delve into how this is driven - yet it IS being driven). I would add that TWC was clearly stating, up the 3 days ahead of the event, that should the powerful solutions in models come to pass, the implications would be what they are. 

I heard interviewed FL residents say "well, this time, the surge came". Testifying that when warnings issued in previous events, they were < expected results. 

I know we, here on the page, pay more than casual attention to such things - as compared to the general populace, yet if we lay persons could see it and then watch it unfold as if it were a slow motion disaster movie, there's no explaining why reasoned people of any stripe, would not also be aware.

I mean, for crying out loud, I was alarming as best I could nearly 6 days in advance - I messaged my nephew in the AF in Columbia SC and told him to be careful. He said "Base command is aware and preparing". Afterwards he told my sister that Base Command totally dropped the ball and was not sufficiently prepared - never even closed and they are paying hell with dealing with the mess. (they are OK though, he's only speaking to a general SNAFU level "prep") 

Vexing and frustrating. 

[Burr]

I totally agree.  We on this board recognize nuance and probability in the weather.  Average Jane and Joe types say, “The weathermen cried wolf too many times, but this time it actually happened.”  
 

This was very well publicized.  ‘People’ don’t handle the info well, distrust authorities, and also don’t comprehend magnitude for unprecedented events within their lifetimes.  

[Burr]

Categorizing hurricanes by wind speed alone is another pet peeve of mine.  My uncle lives in the St Pete area, and he tells me very few people went to higher ground because the storm was going so far north.  Lots of water-damaged used cars will be getting scrapped or sold to unsuspecting buyers.

[Undertakerson2.0]

24 minutes ago, Burr said:

Categorizing hurricanes by wind speed alone is another pet peeve of mine.  My uncle lives in the St Pete area, and he tells me very few people went to higher ground because the storm was going so far north.  Lots of water-damaged used cars will be getting scrapped or sold to unsuspecting buyers.

especially majors where pressure is far more indicative of power than are winds. 

[FortySixAnd32]

On 9/27/2024 at 9:46 PM, StretchCT said:

Chimney Rock NC is located just upstream from Lake Lure

@Blitz

[btbucks]

9 hours ago, Burr said:

I totally agree.  We on this board recognize nuance and probability in the weather.  Average Jane and Joe types say, “The weathermen cried wolf too many times, but this time it actually happened.”  
 

This was very well publicized.  ‘People’ don’t handle the info well, distrust authorities, and also don’t comprehend magnitude for unprecedented events within their lifetimes.  

And the wolf finally came,

[Tater]

For the inland folks, it's hard to imagine how this could have even been realistically forecast. I'm currently with my search and rescue team searching the banks of the Nolichucky River in Tennessee, so I have a bit of an inside scoop on the situation. The forecast peak flow was apparently only 1/3rd of the actual peak flow. Average flow on this river is around 2-3000 CFS. The previous record flow was 82,000 CFS. This time the flow was 162,000 CFS, doubling the previous record. (As is being reported on media, Niagara Falls peak flow is 100,000 CFS.) There is no precedent for this. As we searched through the smashed ruins of a barn, a local came by and told us that barn had stood there for over 200 years. Here is what is left of a primary highway bridge built to withstand a hundred year flood.

The good news is that people are rising to the occasion. There are lots of helicopters around, both public and private. We saw everything from R44s to UH60s. The school where we are based at is a designated shelter and food donations are coming in constantly. We saw many utility trucks at hotels as we traveled down. There were utility trucks just out of frame in the above picture, and most of the people in Tennessee had power restored. According to poweroutage.us, Unicoi County, the hardest hit in Tennessee, has pretty much all of its power restored.

However, there is an incredible amount of destruction. Many of you probably saw the airlifts from the hospital nearby here. What you probably didn't see is that the normal edge of the river that was one hundred yards from the hospital is now under the hospital (or so I was told).

I can't even imagine how things are in Asheville.

[Undertakerson2.0]

7 hours ago, Tater said:

For the inland folks, it's hard to imagine how this could have even been realistically forecast. I'm currently with my search and rescue team searching the banks of the Nolichucky River in Tennessee, so I have a bit of an inside scoop on the situation. The forecast peak flow was apparently only 1/3rd of the actual peak flow. Average flow on this river is around 2-3000 CFS. The previous record flow was 82,000 CFS. This time the flow was 162,000 CFS, doubling the previous record. (As is being reported on media, Niagara Falls peak flow is 100,000 CFS.) There is no precedent for this. As we searched through the smashed ruins of a barn, a local came by and told us that barn had stood there for over 200 years. Here is what is left of a primary highway bridge built to withstand a hundred year flood.

The good news is that people are rising to the occasion. There are lots of helicopters around, both public and private. We saw everything from R44s to UH60s. The school where we are based at is a designated shelter and food donations are coming in constantly. We saw many utility trucks at hotels as we traveled down. There were utility trucks just out of frame in the above picture, and most of the people in Tennessee had power restored. According to poweroutage.us, Unicoi County, the hardest hit in Tennessee, has pretty much all of its power restored.

However, there is an incredible amount of destruction. Many of you probably saw the airlifts from the hospital nearby here. What you probably didn't see is that the normal edge of the river that was one hundred yards from the hospital is now under the hospital (or so I was told).

I can't even imagine how things are in Asheville.

Bless you and everyone who is lending their time, money, or whatever resource.

In the lead up to this catastrophe, I made several posts on various outlets about how Appalachia would take this harder than even any part of Florida. I caught a ton of flak (not here of course, we knew) from those who said about the massive surge - and that is fair. Again though, we saw the PRE exacerbation of the QPF totals - we know (or should know) from basic geography that mountain valleys below 6K' peaks would take all that and it would be harsh. We had previous events to gauge this off of and, in fact, NWS in that region stated that the outcome would rival if not surpass the triple play tropical trouble they had in 2004 - and would do it all in one event not three. 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=48&glossary=1

I'm sending more donations today - I wish I could do even more (and do so directly, to be honest). So again, bless every single one of you who are the "boots on ground". I know the locals appreciate it even more. 

[MaineJay]

Heartbroken for all those who have, and are still suffering from this.

  It's so hard to conceptualize what 2 feet of rain is capable of, let alone preparing for it. I don't think there's any design standards/city planning that can begin to address an event like this, and prevent it. The scale is just too great.

  As others have noted, the winds are always the headliner with a hurricane, but the water is the killer.  The amount of rain generated here is hard to even grasp. 

   Kudos to everyone helping out in every way.  Heart and thoughts go out to all affected.  So terrible for those who have lost so much, and not faced with how to move forward.  

   

[Jon Snow]

Compounding the problems, most folks don’t appreciate how the heavy rains affect mountain terrain.  We get flash flooding frequently, but usually it is only this creek or that creek, only this area, not everywhere.  But when it is such a widespread area, and includes all the creeks, all the rivers, all areas, it becomes exponentially worse.  Another storm rolled through Roanoke last night, more localized flash flooding, another tree down this morning so the bus can not run.  Not a huge deal compared to other areas, but multiply that by 1000s for Asheville.  It was not just the rain falling there, but all the rain falling upstream, all draining through those mountain creeks and streams that have no adjacent flood plain, that quickly becomes a disaster.  I would not appreciate it myself if I had not lived here long enough to understand even a quick storm dropping 2-3” of rain can be a disaster for a very localized area, but they got that x 10-20, and it was not localized, it was everywhere.

[Undertakerson2.0]

22 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Compounding the problems, most folks don’t appreciate how the heavy rains affect mountain terrain.  We get flash flooding frequently, but usually it is only this creek or that creek, only this area, not everywhere.  But when it is such a widespread area, and includes all the creeks, all the rivers, all areas, it becomes exponentially worse.  Another storm rolled through Roanoke last night, more localized flash flooding, another tree down this morning so the bus can not run.  Not a huge deal compared to other areas, but multiply that by 1000s for Asheville.  It was not just the rain falling there, but all the rain falling upstream, all draining through those mountain creeks and streams that have no adjacent flood plain, that quickly becomes a disaster.  I would not appreciate it myself if I had not lived here long enough to understand even a quick storm dropping 2-3” of rain can be a disaster for a very localized area, but they got that x 10-20, and it was not localized, it was everywhere.

I dare not even contemplate what may have happened had this been in a month with more defoliation of the trees - such as late Autumn 😞