Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Moderators Share Posted September 23 (edited) NHC has this labeled PTC 9 now. Track looks pretty straightforward as of now. Tight clustering of models - looking at panhandle landfall, into Big Bend area of FL Currently getting its act together Progged to 110mph this discussion and it looks like it keeps gaining strength up to landfall INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL Ocean heat content in the area is very high There is a shear zone it has to manage to the north which is modeled by the GFS to shift east. Then later in the GOM the shear from the upper low over the Central US will create some S/SW shear which is in the direction its moving. GFS currently has the storm just outside that shear. Edited September 27 by StretchCT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Thanks for the opener Stretch 🙂 I look forward to discussing this one with you all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 God help us. Peak and close to landfall. 162 kts is 186mph. 152kts is 175mph. HAFS B with worse pressure, less winds. The surge from this will be catastrophic. HMON I look forward to the 5pm discussion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 HWRF just came in and looks a little sheared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 I think if we're going to have a major hurricane, I'd want it to go into Big Bend, but it's unnerving that its 3-4 days out and it's modeled to go there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 23 Admin Share Posted September 23 This bears exceedingly close watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 (edited) You can see the broad circulation, With some spin in the middle. Edited September 23 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 23 Admin Share Posted September 23 Lowest Pressure I have seen thus far is about 1007mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 minutes ago, Sentinel said: Lowest Pressure I have seen thus far is about 1007mb Close 1004mb on the 1400 update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 SST with SHR overlay. Seems as if fut. Helene will not have much in its way once it gets to the Yuca channel/straits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 Interesting that recon is flying under 1000 feet this mission. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 Great as usual. Goes into how conditions are optimal for a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 Cayman radar https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Honestly, not being a fear monger to say that RI is not only in the cards, it's increasingly likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Honestly, not being a fear monger to say that RI is not only in the cards, it's increasingly likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 17 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Great as usual. Goes into how conditions are optimal for a significant storm. After seeing this - and the mention of how the UL jet will help "vent the top", I am even more convinced. This nearly has to be a min of a Cat3 - and that's being conservative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23 John in the EPAC just went from 65mph 994mb to 100mph 973mb in 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Just now, StretchCT said: John in the EPAC just went from 65mph 994mb to 100mph 973mb in 6 hours. 🔥🤯 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: After seeing this - and the mention of how the UL jet will help "vent the top", I am even more convinced. This nearly has to be a min of a Cat3 - and that's being conservative. I'm gonna go the other direction and say cat 5 is on the table. These things don't take long to go thermonuclear when the water is literally uncomfortably hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 34 minutes ago, 1816 said: I'm gonna go the other direction and say cat 5 is on the table. These things don't take long to go thermonuclear when the water is literally uncomfortably hot. We're saying the same thing - I said "MIN CAT 3" to indicate that is the lowest I see right now, not what he potential on the high end is. On a blog page my friends keep, I mention that this has some earmarks of Michael. I'm just not ready to sound the alarm that way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: We're saying the same thing - I said "MIN CAT 3" to indicate that is the lowest I see right now, not what he potential on the high end is. On a blog page my friends keep, I mention that this has some earmarks of Michael. I'm just not ready to sound the alarm that way at this point. Yes sir I just expect to get laughed out of the room with the cat 5 stuff. But if it happened I know one person that would not be the least surprised. Edit: in other words I'm not feeling conservative at all about this cyclone. Edited September 23 by 1816 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 23 Admin Share Posted September 23 Just now, 1816 said: Yes sir I just expect to get laughed out of the room with the cat 5 stuff. But if it happened I know one person that would not be the least surprised. Just now, 1816 said: Yes sir I just expect to get laughed out of the room with the cat 5 stuff. But if it happened I know one person that would not be the least surprised. Ain't no one laughing you out of the room here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The 5 pm. came out right as I sat down to supper. I missed the graphic that, in fact, shows it as a "M" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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