Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 1 hour ago, clm said: What are the chances Francine could be a rebel and go up through Texas? Seems to be going NNE now and there's not much to push it that way. It's probably gonna end up around NOLA. That's a lot of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 (edited) Francine picking up some speed, down to 987, no change in winds. Location: 25.7°N 95.0°W Moving: NE at 10 mph Min pressure: 987 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Highlights from discussion - convection not persisting , possibly due to dry air. Speed should increase as a shortwave comes over TX, while dry air may persist, the forecast remains for rapid intensification over the next 24 hrs. Spoiler The convection associated with Francine has not changed much in organization during the past six hours. Radar data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville shows good curved banding around the center, but the convection is having trouble persisting, possibly due to continued dry air entrainment. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft prior to 18Z showed that the central pressure had dropped to near 987 mb, and that the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds were 63 kt. Based on these data and satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. The initial motion is now 035/9 kt. An approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause the storm to move northeastward at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After that time, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. While there is little change to the track forecast scenario since the last advisory, the track guidance has again shifted to the east, most notably between 12-48 h. Based on this change, the forecast track during that period is again nudged a little to the east. The new track lies just to the left of the various consensus models. Francine has about 24 h to strengthen over warm water before it encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there remains a possibility that dry air entrainment could continue to reduce the intensification rate, the intensity forecast continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise favorable conditions, and the forecast peak intensity of 80 kt is at the high end of the intensity guidance. Intensification is expected to stop near or just before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models continue to show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast again follows that scenario. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 25.7N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 25.7N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Edited September 11 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 10 Author Moderators Share Posted September 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 (edited) Francine now a Hurricane. Pressure has dropped 6mb in the last 6 hours to 982mb. Flight level winds for mission 11 hit 87mph. Flight 10 has a 979 pressure est. No observed winds over 74mph that I can find. Luckily it's moving at 10mph. BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES Edited September 11 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 She’s got a lot more work to do with core structure after all the dry air today. Barring any sudden R.I which seems unlikely at this point in time, a strong cat 1/ weak cat 2 seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Actually I’m thinking this presentation of the CDO looks pretty healthy at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 OK - hurricane winds are now official via recon. Max flight winds over 102mph, 40 nm wide eye open in the SW. 65kts surface winds. But I've never seen a remark like this EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 3:11Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 Storm Name: Francine Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 11 Observation Number: 21 A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 2:43:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.25N 94.52W B. Center Fix Location: 185 statute miles (298 km) to the E (83°) from Brownsville, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,946m (9,665ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 245° at 12kts (From the WSW at 14mph) F. Eye Character: Open in the southwest G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 65kts (74.8mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 2:36:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 306° at 64kts (From the NW at 73.6mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 2:34:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64kts (73.6mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the E (85°) of center fix at 2:49:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 180° at 89kts (From the S at 102.4mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix at 2:53:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) which was observed 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the E (88°) from the flight level center at 2:53:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 There is some pretty good wind just off the surface and up the column. It just doesn't seem to be making it down there yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 11 Admin Share Posted September 11 12 hours ago, clm said: What are the chances Francine could be a rebel and go up through Texas? At this point... 0. Only 12 hrs late. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Strengthening BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 93.8W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 93.8 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected this morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 Looking at recon data prior to the NHC site, I'd have it at 972mb with 90mph winds, meaning a 10mb drop from 8pm to 8am. They didn't take the extrapolation though. Mission 11 had flight level winds over 100mph, since then the flight level winds are in the mid to upper 90s, so maybe there's a little plateau now. Spoiler Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 11:02Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: Francine Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 13 Observation Number: 03 A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 10:23:21Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.14N 93.25W B. Center Fix Location: 210 statute miles (338 km) to the SSE (165°) from Beaumont, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg) - Extrapolated E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA F. Eye Character: Open in the south G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 90° to 270° (E to W) G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 179° at 79kts (From the S at 90.9mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the E (80°) of center fix at 10:15:47Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 3° at 63kts (From the N at 72.5mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix at 10:34:56Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,419m (7,936ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,445m (8,022ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph) which was observed 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the E (80°) from the flight level center at 10:15:47Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT PA SEC MAX FL WIND 78 KT 086 / 82 NM 10:17:57Z Mission 12 sonde data showed a 975mb reading and highest winds were just above the surface at 114mph and surface at 90. The column looks tilted or something as the winds are much lighter at 700mb. Mision 12 also had HDOB of 968mb. Mission 12 had movement to the NE and had the vort messages showing the hurricane was weakening. Mission 13 is in there now. It shows the storm went to 972 and then back to 976 and going due north. This is weird cause they're both sampling now. Still waiting for visible sat. Radar clearly shows NE movement and a very well defined eyewall. Not sure if the southern part is as broken as it seems as radar usually has a hard time getting through the hurricane and there's no radar to the south to add to the mosaic, so check the vort message for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 11am edt update Location: 28.0°N 92.7°W Moving: NE at 13 mph Min pressure: 976 mb Max sustained: 90 mph Disco highlights - large elliptical eye open in the south, cloud pattern elongated, result of sw shear. Due to shear (which is in the same direction as its moving), and some dry air, further strengthening is not likely. Spoiler Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of southwesterly shear. The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength is expected before landfall. However, Francine will continue to pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 Gee, thought there would be more activity here with a landfalling hurricane within 18 hrs or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 (edited) NOAA Tides and Currents has some real time data worth watching. example: the observed water level vs the predicted water level gives you the surge. And there's wind data too. Edited September 11 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 40 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Gee, thought there would be more activity here with a landfalling hurricane within 18 hrs or so. Do we have any members in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 I dn't see much of an eye there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 It's approaching land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 I'll probably not be home for the landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=catsmeow2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 Gusts at Eugene Island 54kts, sus at 40kts Garden Banks offshore platform saw Hurricane winds with gusts to 95mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 Still near 100mph flight level winds in mission 14. Eye is circular 30nm wide and open in the S/SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11 Might be clearing out the eye just in time for landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now