Moderators StretchCT Posted August 19 Moderators Share Posted August 19 (edited) This seemed to ramp up quickly 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 Location: 15.1°N 116.9°W Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Edited August 31 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 20 Author Moderators Share Posted August 20 Took a hit of shear but will rebound 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 Location: 15.7°N 118.3°W Moving: WNW at 8 mph Min pressure: 1000 mb Max sustained: 50 mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.7N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 17.7N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 18.2N 126.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 19.0N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 20.0N 131.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21 Author Moderators Share Posted August 21 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 ...GILMA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2024 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 122.3W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21 Author Moderators Share Posted August 21 Getting busy out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Getting busy out there Indeed. Poor Hawaii if the GFS holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21 Author Moderators Share Posted August 21 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 Location: 16.3°N 123.2°W Moving: WNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 972 mb Max sustained: 105 mph 12 hours went up 30mph in wind and from 990 to 972 mb. Forecast now up to 130mph. Still over 5 days from HI. Whatever is in front of it will be named shortly INIT 21/2100Z 16.3N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W 75 KT 85 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 22 Author Moderators Share Posted August 22 Gilma becomes a major hurricane. 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 Location: 16.6°N 124.2°W Moving: WNW at 6 mph Min pressure: 963 mb Max sustained: 115 mph Predicting 125mph now. INIT 22/0900Z 16.6N 124.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.2N 126.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 17.5N 127.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 17.8N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 18.3N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.6N 136.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W 60 KT 70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 22 Author Moderators Share Posted August 22 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 22 Location: 16.9°N 124.5°W Moving: WNW at 7 mph Min pressure: 955 mb Max sustained: 125 mph INIT 22/1500Z 16.9N 124.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.5N 126.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 17.8N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 18.1N 129.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.4N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.8N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 19.1N 141.3W 55 KT 65 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 Given how far out in the Pacific this is and not near land, do they fly into these? I've only noticed they fly into the ones in the Atlantic that are threatening landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 22 Author Moderators Share Posted August 22 1 hour ago, clm said: Given how far out in the Pacific this is and not near land, do they fly into these? I've only noticed they fly into the ones in the Atlantic that are threatening landfall. It's all satellite estimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 23 Author Moderators Share Posted August 23 Wow - eye got a little ragged, but for a while it was really in a groove. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 24 Author Moderators Share Posted August 24 Does not seem it will make it to Hawaii as a TS, but still might have some juice to cause problems with flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 24 Author Moderators Share Posted August 24 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... 5:00 AM HST Sat Aug 24 Location: 17.6°N 130.0°W Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 977 mb Max sustained: 90 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 24 Author Moderators Share Posted August 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 25 Author Moderators Share Posted August 25 Gilma re intensified and peaked again at 130mph This was yesterday mornings forecast Last nights discussion 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma continues to defy the odds and intensify. The satellite depiction over the last several hours has been one of a well-organized strengthening hurricane. The eyewall is tightly wrapped producing deep convection with lightning depicted in the northern eyewall on GLM satellite imagery. Visible imagery shows that the eye has become circular, well-defined, and has been clearing out. Subjective Dvorak estimates have increased but were constrained to T6.0/115 kt from both SAB and TAFB, with both agencies reporting higher data-T values. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these estimates the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt for this advisory. Therefore, Gilma's strengthening has met the definition of rapid intensification as the system has strengthened 30 kt in 12 h. INIT 25/0300Z 17.8N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 20.3N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Overnight discussion 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 After a brief period of rapid strengthening earlier this evening, Gilma's intensity has leveled off. Conventional GOES-18 satellite imagery shows that the deep inner core convection has eroded considerably in the western half of the cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 115 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and various UW-CIMSS objective techniques. Although the current intensity is higher than noted in the previous advisory, Gilma likely peaked a few hours ago based on earlier ADT intensity estimates of 115-119 kt and the 0000 UTC constrained Data-T 6.5 subjective estimates from both TAFB and SAB. INIT 25/0900Z 18.0N 132.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 133.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.3N 135.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 137.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 18.7N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.2N 142.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.0N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.6N 150.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 26 Author Moderators Share Posted August 26 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 Location: 18.1°N 135.9°W Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 977 mb Max sustained: 100 mph Should finally start to steadily weaken, though might disrupt Hawaii a little. INIT 26/0900Z 18.1N 135.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 27 Author Moderators Share Posted August 27 Rapidly weakening... 40kts over 15 hrs. Being sheared and the center is 60 miles from the convection. NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 142.1W ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS NIT 27/2100Z 18.5N 142.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.6N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.4N 148.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.9N 150.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 20.4N 152.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.0N 155.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 28 Author Moderators Share Posted August 28 Gilma or its remnants should affect Hawaii 5:00 AM HST Wed Aug 28 Location: 18.8°N 145.7°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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