TS Fabio | 65mph 995mb peak |45mph 100mb current | joining Emilia

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Busy in the EPAC - Fabio was named and not expected to do much.  It was speculated, last night in Emilia's disco, it would eat Emilia.  Now its the other way around.

...TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today. After that, Fabio is 
expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by 
Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday night or Thursday.

 

 

Edited August 7 by StretchCT

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Sat of the EPAC - Carlotta in upper left. Emilia in the center, Daniel on the left and Fabio on the right. Daniel and Fabio don't look like TSs

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Fabio at 65mph (top) and Emilia also at 65mph.

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Wide view of EPAC with Fabio being absorbed by Emilia


800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery
shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and
vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia
continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio.
Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared
convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level
center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.

Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio
is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion
should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer
circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends.
Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio
appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The
NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h
before merging with Emilia on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Edited August 7 by StretchCT