Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 Looks like its going NW to me. Slowly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) 11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 Location: 27.0°N 84.3°W Moving: NNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Will note the 8am pressure was 1001. 🤔 Spoiler SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES Disco in spoiler - highlights are better cloud pattern, significant drop in pressure (so that's not a mistake), eyewall forming, low shear, high water temp, little steering winds, significant strengthening likely (progged now to 90mph), Spoiler Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form. The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft. The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame. Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below tropical storm strength through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area. 4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 Tornado warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 (edited) Looking pretty healthy to me. It's got that look they get when there's nothing working against it. Buckle up. Edited August 4 by 1816 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Well, surprise surprise. Another RI hurricane in bath water along the coast. Next 12-18 hours should be really interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) Starting to cut off the dry air. Wonder if we'll see an eye before landfall. Think it may run out of time. Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) This is allegedly Ft Meyers today. I'm off twitter, on threads. https://www.threads.net/@disasterupdate1/post/C-QlmP6MV6b?xmt=AQGzl5uNG2_3BaBaBel3gENQBvotaCmgHeFryy-GzVB6hw Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 I’ll say it is interesting to be under a tropical storm warning and storm surge warning. I’m in St. Simons Georgia for the record. I’m not too worried about the actual storm here. I know flooding will be a big concern and some gusty winds. Can cross being in a tropical storm/hurricane off my bucket list. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Starting to cut off the dry air. Wonder if we'll see an eye before landfall. Think it may run out of time. Idk, looks pretty close to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 TT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 (edited) Ppl in GA are like "so this is what Publix would look like if we had a winter storm in our forecast like the northerners" Edited August 4 by Undertakerson2.0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) Maybe we can get an eye to clear out by sunset, probably have to get it on the IR though tonight. Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted August 4 Admin Share Posted August 4 8 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Maybe we can get an eye to clear out by sunset, probably have to get it on the IR though tonight. Certainly looks like a well defined central ring is trying to form. Cool to be able to see it on radar, usually we only get the occasional microwave scan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 The tornado threat is understated imo. They love to spin off these tropical systems, particularly in flat areas like fl, GA, coastal Carolinas, etc. An f1 twister is still a big deal if it hits your house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) Coverage goes back 3 hrs or so Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Author Moderators Share Posted August 5 No lightning in the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 A cut off ‘ cane perhaps. My, oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 2 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: A cut off ‘ cane perhaps. My, oh my. Could meander down there for a little while it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Um, look at some of the latest model runs for rainfall amounts after Florida. Scary. This could really get ugly. Geo, Carolina’s don’t handle that much water well, especially coupled with steady onshore flow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Um, look at some of the latest model runs for rainfall amounts after Florida. Scary. This could really get ugly. Geo, Carolina’s don’t handle that much water well, especially coupled with steady onshore flow. My cousin lives in Central SC. Says they're expecting 12-24" of rain or more!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Author Moderators Share Posted August 5 (edited) Finding some wind now. 105 mph flight level spot, 98 sustained. with 65kt sfmr. Edited August 5 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Setup screams cutoff . But that makes post cutoff forecasts really tough. Enjoy tracking 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 5 Author Moderators Share Posted August 5 Highest winds are right off the coast. Mission 7 Mission 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 With the new advisory we have hurricane Debby. Thankfully she’ll be on shore in the morning before she really has a chance to go nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 5 Share Posted August 5 Debby is a hurricane. Quote BULLETIN Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... ...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 84.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from Suwannee River to Yankeetown. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of South Carolina from the Savannah River to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch south of Englewood has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande * Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Ponte Vedre Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or Monday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 84.0 West. Debby is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night. Data from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning overnight. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf coast through tonight, and begin along portions of the tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area late Monday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern North Carolina through Friday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected. Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday. The threat will spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South Carolina on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida through Monday. Swells will begin to affect the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now