Moderators StretchCT Posted August 3 Author Moderators Share Posted August 3 AI-RI (rapid intensification) not impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Snowman Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 12z GFS out to hour 246 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 3 Author Moderators Share Posted August 3 12z GFS with two feet of water by Savannah Hilton Head And quite a lot of rain in the NE 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 3 Author Moderators Share Posted August 3 Euro gust map. 60mph gusts interior SC will do some damage. Over the water they are in the 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 3 Author Moderators Share Posted August 3 AND WE'RE OFF! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 (edited) 4 hours ago, StretchCT said: AI-RI (rapid intensification) not impressive Just not enough time out on open water along with lots of land interaction maybe? Biggest story will be the flooding rains. Edited August 3 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 3 Author Moderators Share Posted August 3 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective banding to the north and south of the central region. A combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby. Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement with the HWRF model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 15 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Just not enough time out on open water along with lots of land interaction maybe? Biggest story will be the flooding rains. 28 minutes ago, StretchCT said: AND WE'RE OFF! Land interaction with Florida has been proven to be negligible imo. I believe nhc is using model output that shows outputs consistent with precedents which is all well and good except the water is now the temperature of an uncomfortable bath, which wasn't usually the case 20 years ago. No shear in place is going to lead to strengthening well and above the models depiction, as has been the case for 6 or 7 years now. Hope I'm wrong but I'm putting it out there right now. If the model says cat1 at landfall then you're looking at cat 3 minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 23 minutes ago, 1816 said: Land interaction with Florida has been proven to be negligible imo. I believe nhc is using model output that shows outputs consistent with precedents which is all well and good except the water is now the temperature of an uncomfortable bath, which wasn't usually the case 20 years ago. No shear in place is going to lead to strengthening well and above the models depiction, as has been the case for 6 or 7 years now. Hope I'm wrong but I'm putting it out there right now. If the model says cat1 at landfall then you're looking at cat 3 minimum. I understand where you are coming from. Debby currently has limitations from the structure. Can it get going? Absolutely, but the next 24 hours will be structural in nature. If this storm comes ashore Monday afternoon then it has 48 hours over water. I lean toward high end cat 1 low end cat 2 at this moment but a strengthening storm at landfall is the worst. I’m also headed down to Florida at the end of the week so I have a lot of personal interest in this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 6 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: I understand where you are coming from. Debby currently has limitations from the structure. Can it get going? Absolutely, but the next 24 hours will be structural in nature. If this storm comes ashore Monday afternoon then it has 48 hours over water. I lean toward high end cat 1 low end cat 2 at this moment but a strengthening storm at landfall is the worst. I’m also headed down to Florida at the end of the week so I have a lot of personal interest in this one. You know way more weather than I do, no doubt. But I'm going by common sense deduction. Every single storm that has gone through the straits or into the Gulf had outperformed the models. Every single one. For like the last 8 years I believe. I just don't think the algorithms can handle the current strength of the fuel(water temp) for some reason. If this one hits the panhandle as a cat 3 I'm gonna feel vindicated with this position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 10 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: Can you get a flight Sun night? Looks like TS conditions likely northern FL Monday. Yeah I’m going to see if I can get out sooner. Hopefully conditions won’t be too bad. I’ve never flown out in any inclement weather before let alone a tropical storm lol. Glad it isn’t a stronger storm, could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 36 minutes ago, Snow____ said: Yeah I’m going to see if I can get out sooner. Hopefully conditions won’t be too bad. I’ve never flown out in any inclement weather before let alone a tropical storm lol. Glad it isn’t a stronger storm, could be worse. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, Snow____ said: Yeah I’m going to see if I can get out sooner. Hopefully conditions won’t be too bad. I’ve never flown out in any inclement weather before let alone a tropical storm lol. Glad it isn’t a stronger storm, could be worse. Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) 11pm forecast is now up to 85mph. INIT 04/0300Z 24.4N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 25.9N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 27.8N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 29.3N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.3N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/1200Z 31.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0000Z 31.2N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0000Z 31.6N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 09/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND Surprised to see 6-10 ft surge Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Surprised to see 6-10 ft surge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 2 hours ago, Snow____ said: Yeah I’m going to see if I can get out sooner. Hopefully conditions won’t be too bad. I’ve never flown out in any inclement weather before let alone a tropical storm lol. Glad it isn’t a stronger storm, could be worse. Looks like the forecasts are starting to key in on what some of the folks here are saying. The National Weather Service now has a hurricane first hitting Florida. Best of luck getting out tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: So shallow there. Ridiculously shallow. Also part of why the water is so hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Can see an eye feature starting to form on the radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 While Debby moves across the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and remains in a relatively low wind shear environment, the storm will have an opportunity to strengthen rapidly before reaching the coast. The reliable intensity models all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops an inner core. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the intensity guidance through landfall, and shows Debby becoming a hurricane by tonight prior to landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 My nephew is in the AF and stationed near Columbia SC. I've been notifying him to this - he's been well aware for my doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 16 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: My nephew is in the AF and stationed near Columbia SC. I've been notifying him to this - he's been well aware for my doing so. My brother is Army and stationed in the same area. 8am update, Debby is up to 60mph but same pressure. Shes still lopsided to the east but trying to change that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 4 and 5 are still in the storm AI-RI https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ai-ri/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 4 Author Moderators Share Posted August 4 (edited) Still watching this one for later in the week up here. Edited August 4 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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