Hurricane Carlotta | 90mph 979mb peak | dissipated

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TS Carlotta was born

Spoiler

Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024
 
...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK
AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 108.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was 
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 108.0 West. Carlotta is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn back 
west-northwestward and then westward is anticipated over the next 
couple of days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next 
few days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane 
on Friday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Currently 60mph expected to top 100mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 17.0N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

Edited August 7 by StretchCT

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Sat

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Carlotta is a hurricane

 

Now expected to peak at 100mph

Spoiler

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Since the previous advisory, Carlotta's structure on satellite
imagery has improved, with a banding eye showing up on both infrared
and visible frames. We have been also receiving helpful surface
observations from Isla Clarion which earlier reported sustained
winds of 47 kt with a gust of 71 kt and a minimum pressure of 986 mb
as Carlotta passed by just to the north. These data, along with
subjective and objective intensity estimates in the 65-77 kt range
are the basis to increase the initial intensity to 70 kt, making
Carlotta the first hurricane of the East Pacific season.

Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at 
285/12-kt. This heading with a gradual slowdown is expected to 
continue for the next several days as the hurricane remains 
influenced by a large deep-layer ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States. The track guidance this cycle has not 
changed much other than another subtle shift north again, and the 
NHC track forecast was nudged again in that direction.

The small hurricane has an opportunity to intensify further over the 
next day or so while it remains over warm ocean waters and low to 
moderate vertical wind shear. Similar to the previous advisory, the 
NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity as a Category 2 
hurricane in 24-36 hours. However beyond that time, sea-surface 
temperatures decrease under 26 C and continue to cool as the 
environmental moisture becomes increasingly dry and stable. Thus, 
weakening should begin in earnest after that time period, with the 
system becoming post-tropical as it loses its remaining convection 
by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 18.6N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 

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90mph

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winding down.  Now at 50mph. Sat gives a twofer with a mess of clouds called Daniel.