snowlover2 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Appears we are starting up an active pattern with the possible threat of severe weather and MCS throughout the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted July 28 Moderators Share Posted July 28 Hopefully it can get active its been so boring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 Not exactly good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 First mcs now forming in Iowa 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 ILN has one hell of a write up this morning. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 644 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern is in store for the region through the upcoming week, potentially continuing into the upcoming weekend. Several episodes of showers and storms are expected through this active and unsettled regime. Seasonably warm and humid conditions will prevail through the week as well. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Light rain continues to pivot to the NE along an arcing band draped across the heart of the ILN FA. This is associated with the trof axis shifting E through the area, which will exit to the E into the early daytime hours. A very muggy/humid airmass has settled into the region, and this is reflected by the expansive low clouds across the region early this morning, something that is not too typical for this time of the year. Dewpoint depressions are running on the order of only a degree or two, with an increasingly-saturated LL environment filtering into the area. While a few disorganized/cellular storms are expected in central/south-central OH and NE KY into early afternoon, the primary focus for the daytime period will be directed to our NW as an MCS originating out of IA dives to the SE through IL/IN into early afternoon. The environment ahead of this feature (downstream) will be gradually destabilizing into the late morning/early afternoon period, with SBCAPE ~2000 J/kg in the immediate downstream environment past the noontime hour. Although this complex will be outrunning its source forcing, it should still be largely cold-pool driven, suggesting that convective maintenance (and intensity) should be maintained quite awhile. As with many of these scenarios, certain convective-allowing models tend to "kill" the complexes much too soon. And, given the ripening LL thermodynamic environment in EC/SE IN and the Tri-State area into mid afternoon, this may very well be another one of those cases where the line/clusters holds itself together to a much greater degree further to the E/SE (primarily from Fayette Co IN to Pike Co OH and points S of this line). This maintenance of both organization and intensity into the ILN FA, even with a slow "downward tick" in both, would suggest that a semi- cohesive line of storms will move into EC/SE IN and the Tri- State into N KY around 18z-20z, bringing with it the potential for gusty winds and torrential rainfall. Should this scenario unfold, there certainly may be a few strong storms in the Tri- State mid/late afternoon (particularly in any SW-NE oriented segment), with the expectation for a slow weakening trend with SE extent further into the area (south- central OH and NE KY) by late afternoon. Will continue to mention this potential in the HWO, with the greatest potential for a severe storm or two (with damaging winds being the primary threat) to be focused in far SE IN and N KY. Highs today will generally reach into the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The fcst for the short term period doesn`t become any clearer, or quieter, than is the case for the near term period. The primary question remains just how much of a cold pool is maintained with SE extent following the mid/late day remnant MCS, which will undoubtedly leave a trailing swath of more stable air in its immediate wake. The mid afternoon decaying MCS may act to re-orient and re-position several crucial mesoscale thermodynamic and kinematic boundaries into the evening which will serve as a focus for renewed storm development near/past sunset once again. A more delayed and longer-lived MCS (with stronger cold pool maintenance) into the ILN FA mid/late afternoon would likely shift the axis/gradient of instby a bit further to the W across parts of central IL/IN where robust destabilization will certainly be underway even by mid afternoon. This pooling of extremely-rich LL moisture/instby in central IL into wrn IN will help provide a focus for renewed storm development into the evening, especially as a convectively-enhanced LLJ helps increase LL moisture/mass convergence along a NW-SE oriented boundary stretching from NW IN to parts of N/cntrl KY. Exactly where this boundary sets up will be crucial, although there likely will be /some/ overrunning of this boundary (on the cool side) where elevated convection may sprout even E of the LL instby pool in central IL/IN. At this time, given the latest data and pattern recognition, it is likely that another MCS will develop this evening into the overnight hours, potentially impacting (or at the very least grazing) the same areas (and further to the S and W) that were impacted by the mid afternoon storm activity. The Tri-State, but more specifically N KY into S IN, will be the primary focus for this activity, although additional ISO/SCT storms are likely as far N as WC OH intro central by midnight). These patterns tend to produce subsequent MCS activity that is progressively oriented further to the S and W of the previous MCS. Model guidance, specifically non-CAMs, tend to struggle with these patterns, showing a pcpn shield/footprint that is just too far to the N/E. Given this, it is likely that the greatest organization and severity of the overnight MCS may just miss the ILN FA to the S and W, impacting to a greater deal parts of s-cntrl IN into cntrl KY past midnight. But the NE fringe of this MCS is still expected to move through the Tri- State in the several hour period around midnight. So certainly trends will be monitored closely to determine where a slight shift to the N or S is expected in actuality vs fcst. The primary threat with the late evening/early overnight MCS locally will be locally heavy rain and isolated flooding once again, especially if there is any development of training or backbuilding activity. But... there should be enough forward propagation locally that will help limit the duration of the torrential rainfall rates that will undoubtedly coexist with this complex. It is important to note here that *if* the afternoon MCS dissipates before it moves into the local area, the late evening/early overnight MCS activity would likely be further to the NE more into the local area and would likely be stronger and pose more of a severe/damaging wind risk (especially for the Tri-State). While this is the less likely scenario than the one discussed above, it is still /very/ plausible in the realm of possible outcomes. Storm activity will decrease from NW to SE area-wide into the predawn hours Tuesday as as the primary low shifts E into SE MI and further away from the local area into the afternoon hours. Although a few afternoon SHRA/TSRA are expected E of I-75, a relative minimum in both LL moisture and instby will be positioned across the ILN FA through late Tuesday afternoon, suggesting a somewhat quieter window than was previously expected. Highs on Tuesday will range from near 90 degrees in the W to the mid 80s in central/south-central OH and NE KY where cloud cover will be more persistent. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Confidence is modestly increasing that much of the area is dry Tuesday night, with lingering showers and thunderstorms over central Ohio at the start of the period. Later in the overnight, can`t rule out some LLJ driven activity across portions of Indiana, southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky into Wednesday morning. This will likely be inhibited by a progressive MCS moving through Illinois, Indiana, and western Kentucky. Have maintained a similar approach to Wednesday as previous forecasts with a building ridge supplying warm low-level air leading to a sizable CAP during the afternoon. The primary concern during the day would be heat-related concerns as heat indices may reach or exceed 100 degrees. Can`t rule out isolated to scattered activity during the late afternoon and evening, but any attempts to break the CAP likely occurs the northwest of the local area late into the evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will supply a large corridor of strong instability across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. If thunderstorms are able to organize, a bowing MCS moving through northern Indiana into west-central Ohio is plausible for Wednesday night. A trough descends into the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday, breaking down the ridge over the area. This will provide another opportunity for thunderstorms and heat related concerns. Height falls favor thunderstorms which may not allow for temperatures to reach into the lower 90s. The trough will act to pull higher theta-e values farther north, place the local area in a more favorable location for MCS activity. Friday through Sunday remains quite uncertain. Some operational guidance is much faster with the trough, pushing drier air into the region as early as Friday night/Saturday morning. However, there is modest ensemble support that a slower trough passage may provide more opportunities for thunderstorms. ECMWF ensemble maintains rain chances through Sunday, with a much slower solution. A faster moving through would supply a much drier pattern for the local area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 33 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN has one hell of a write up this morning. Man you weren't kidding. Great read though, a lot of detail there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Pretty active next few days. Need the rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Pretty solid risk today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Tomorrow is looking very interesting on the gfs with mcs potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Looks like storms are starting to develop to my northwest. This could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 (edited) Mesoscale Discussion 1729 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...eastern Illinois into central Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292058Z - 292330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears probable in the next 1-2 hours across eastern Illinois and far western Indiana. Watch issuance may be needed later this evening if robust supercells and/or an organized line can be established. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus along a diffuse trough axis to the south of a weak surface low/remnant MCV. Air mass recovery continues to the east of the trough axis with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints climbing well into the 70s. This is promoting a gradual expansion of MLCAPE values to the northeast with values ranging from 500-2000 J/kg from southern lower MI southward into southern IL/IN. The expectation is for thunderstorm development in the next couple of hours along the trough axis as the air mass continues to destabilize. 30-45 knot northwesterly mid-level winds on the southern periphery of the MCV combined with northerly surface winds are supporting effective bulk shear values near 40-50 knots nearly orthogonal to the trough axis. This may support a few initially discrete cells with an attendant large hail threat. With time upscale growth into an organized MCS appears likely given weaker wind shear near the low, which will favor thunderstorm clustering before storms propagate southward along the buoyancy gradient into the better deep-layer wind shear. As such, the potential for severe winds may increase later this evening across eastern IL into central and southern IN, and possibly into the lower OH River Valley. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed to address this concern. Edited July 29 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 29 Author Share Posted July 29 Got a few cells moving into west Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 48 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Got a few cells moving into west Ohio. Weak little cells but they sure are loud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Looks like the strongest storms are going to be in Ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Certainly some good thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 816 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 OHZ061-062-300045- Montgomery OH-Greene OH- 816 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF GREENE AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT... At 815 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Kettering, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and very heavy rain. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Lightning can cause serious injury or death. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning is possible. Locations impacted include... Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Miamisburg, Vandalia, Bellbrook, Moraine, Oakwood, Wright-Patterson Afb, West Carrollton, Cedarville, Jamestown, Wilberforce, Riverside, New Jasper, Spring Valley, Centerville, and Paintersville. This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 46 and 59. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. Motorists should slow down and use extra caution. When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning threatens. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 3984 8420 3972 8367 3956 8377 3958 8411 3968 8430 TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 292DEG 26KT 3971 8412 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Tornado warning in EC IN near New Castle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Warnings are starting pop up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 wow, I didn't think a lot would develop. Now, tornado warning, as mentioned, inconveniently halfway between IND and ILN radars 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Another tornado warning SE of Springfield IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 850 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Illinois Central and Southern Indiana Northern Kentucky * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 850 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening in a moist and unstable air mass across much of central Illinois and Indiana. Those storms will track southeastward across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Decatur IL to 45 miles northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 561... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Tornado warning for Richmond IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 New tornado warning just west of Oxford OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 30 Author Share Posted July 30 Pretty strong rotation near Cambridge City IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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