TS Bud | 60mph | 1000mb probably peak

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At 430 AM PDT (1130 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. Bud is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later today, followed by a slower
southwestward motion on Friday and Friday night.

Recent surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds 
have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  Bud is 
expected to begin weakening later today or tonight, and the system 
is forecast to dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.  A Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion
recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust 
of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Tropical Storm Bud Special Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
430 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Recent surface observations from the Mexican Navy station on Isla 
Clarion reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a pressure of 1004 
mb as Bud passed to the south of the station.  Given that ASCAT 
from a few hours ago showed vectors as high as 44 kt, the 
observations from the island are consistent.

The only change to the NHC forecast is to increase the forecast 
wind speed through the 24-hour point, due to the higher initial 
intensity.  The observations from Isla Clarion also suggest the 
gust factor is a little higher than normal, and this is indicated 
in the Forecast/Advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1130Z 18.0N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

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Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that Bud continues to maintain its 
intensity.  The vertical wind shear has clearly weakened over the 
past day or so, as a pair of recent 1659 and 1753 UTC ASCAT passes 
indicate that the center is well embedded underneath the central 
convective area.  Based on the ASCAT data and the latest satellite 
intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this 
advisory.

A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the 
cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next 
24 h.  As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn 
towards the west-southwest and decelerate.  The new NHC forecast 
has again been adjusted a bit to the north and faster to the west, 
following the trend in the guidance, but the NHC forecast is still 
to the southeast of the latest consensus models.

As Bud traverses sea-surface temperatures of around 27C over the 
next day or two, the vertical wind shear should remain relatively 
low.  The SHIPS guidance suggests that Bud is moving into a stable 
airmass, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening by 
tonight or on Friday.  No significant changes have been made to the 
previous NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the 
intensity consensus, above the weaker dynamical model guidance, and 
below the stronger statistical guidance.  Bud is forecast to become 
a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 18.4N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 18.6N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 18.7N 120.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 18.6N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 18.4N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED