NWOhioChaser Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 *sigh* Might get missed again. Have a feeling this will dive quicker than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 ILN has one hell of a write up. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 248 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a cold front will move through Wednesday. Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the second half of the week into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A remnant/decaying MCV continues to pull away from the area, with an axis of clouds extending to the SW of the MCV center near the I-70 corridor near a weakly-convergent axis, which is supporting some pooling of better LL moisture. Although quite a bit of clearing has evolved behind this MCV thus far this afternoon within a subsidence regime, agitated Cu and ISO SHRA are beginning to expand in coverage in EC/SE IN and WC OH. Amidst a subtly convergent W-E oriented axis very close to the I-70 corridor, expect an expansion of the Cu field, and the corresponding ISO/SCT TSRA to go along with it as we progress into mid/late afternoon. With only subtle forcing/lift but a favorable LL thermodynamic environment characterized by steep LL lapse rates, any convection that develops will likely gust out fairly quickly, initiating new convection along any outflows. The activity may organize into small clusters which would pose a better potential for ISO gusty to damaging winds, so the organizations trends will be monitored closely through the afternoon. Don`t think that organization or coverage will be high enough to warrant a watch issuance, but certainly a few instances of gusty to isolated damaging winds can be expected, especially near/S of the I-70 corridor where coverage of activity is expected to be the greatest. Will continue mention in the HWO. Ample subsidence in the immediate wake of the AM MCV led to abundant sunshine through the noontime hour, allowing for temps and dewpoints to rise steadily. The combination of temps in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s has allowed for heat index values around 100 to evolve this afternoon for many spots near the OH Rvr and just S of I-70. ALthough there are still some uncertainties regarding afternoon convective redevelopment and the associated impact on temps/heat index values, feel that there still should be slightly cooler temps/dewpoints N of I-70 in central OH that heat index values should largely stay below advisory thresholds. As we progress late into the evening by/past sunset, our focus will quickly shift from the waning convection locally to an intense MCS that will likely be in the early stages of development in ern IA/nrn IL. There is now a fairly consistent signal for a robust MCS to develop in far nrn IL before quickly racing to the E through nrn IN late this evening. As it approaches the ILN FA around/after midnight, two things are expected to occur: 1) The momentum of this strong MCS, characterized by a /very/ impressive RIJ (as depicted within the H8 wind fields of 50-60kts), will likely carry the outflow/gust front well into the local area, especially parts of WC into central OH around 06z-09z. Although the MCS will be outrunning its forcing a bit with eastward extent, it will become somewhat self-sustaining, meaning that convection (SHRA/TSRA) will likely be maintained longer than is shown by some guidance. As such, do think we will be in a situation where we will have near-severe or severe wind gust potential in EC IN and WC OH between about 05z-07z before the complex weakens and "fans out," ejecting the (mostly subsevere) gust front to the E into central OH, southeast into the Miami Valley, and to the S into the Tri-State and SE IN. Do think that the best potential for severe storms (wind gusts) associated with this feature will be from Wayne/Fayette/Union Cos in IN to the ENE through Union Co OH and points to the N/NW of this line between 05z-07z. 2) There is likely to be fairly robust convective redevelopment/backbuilding on the SW fringe of the complex as the unseasonably strong (non-storm augmented SW LLJ of 30+kts) runs into the WNW-ESE fresh convectively-induced boundary laid out by the primary MCS/MCV further to the N across far nrn OH. This will promote aggressive moisture/mass convergence along a slowly-sagging southward-moving boundary, primarily stretching across central/southern parts of IL/IN. There are some indications that this heavy rain potential /may/ creep into EC/SE IN very late tonight, with slow-moving TSRA producing torrential rainfall rates. There is not yet enough confidence to issue a Flash Flood Watch for parts of EC IN into SE IN and far wrn parts of the Tri-State as the complex should move more to the S, or even SSW, with time. But there are still some uncertainties regarding the location/placement of the MCS and the corresponding regenerative activity expected between 06z-12z. But the best signal is for the more concerning flash flood setup to be just off to our W. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... In the wake of the southward-sagging MCS/convection Tuesday morning, a good deal of subsidence/cloud debris will evolve locally through much of the daytime, suggesting lower PoPs through at least mid afternoon for much of the area. However, there should be some SHRA/TSRA redevelopment N of I-70 into late afternoon, with some ISO activity possible elsewhere into the evening hours. There is likely to be a slow uptick in convective coverage (with better forcing/lift moving into the area) into the evening/overnight hours, with the best coverage slowly shifting S of I-70 to closer to/S of the OH Rvr after midnight. It is within this regime/setup that the greatest flash flood risk for us locally may evolve as W-E steering-layer flow overlaps with an increasingly-west to the east oriented LL baroclinic zone (front). Ripples of S/W energy migrating from W to E within the enhanced zonal midlevel flow will provide enough forcing and lift for continued convective redevelopment late in the evening into the overnight, with PWATs near/in excess of 2". There is at least some concern for training convection to move near/along an axis stretching from SE IN into srn fringes of central OH (and points S into N/NE KY) that very well could promote some flooding potential Tuesday night. At this juncture, there is not enough confidence regarding exact location to issue a Flash Flood Watch, but it is mentioned here for awareness purposes and will continue to be highlighted in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front will finally shift southeast through most of the area on Wednesday. The latest guidance shows a surface wave associated with a mid-level disturbance rippling along the front somewhere close to the Ohio River. Based on a very moist vertical profile as well as elevated instability, would think the primary threat will likely be heavy rain and localized flooding before the shortwave drags the front out of our CWA late in the day. High pressure will build into the region behind the front, providing cooler weather late this week through the weekend. The high will likely begin to break down starting Monday allowing some return moisture and a chance of precipitation returning to southern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Some mean looking storms here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Got some dime size hail here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Is anybody else getting 14 minute delay on GRLevel3/GRLevel2? This is not like the usual operation of having data that's about 2 minutes old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 (edited) Noticing some rotation in Greensburg Indiana Edited July 15 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 Dubuque getting hammered with possible 90mph winds! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 612 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ILC085-IAC055-061-097-105-152345- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0306.000000T0000Z-240715T2345Z/ Jo Daviess IL-Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-Delaware IA- 612 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR WESTERN JO DAVIESS...NORTHERN JACKSON...DUBUQUE...NORTHEASTERN JONES AND DELAWARE COUNTIES... At 611 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dubuque, moving east at 45 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Dubuque, Galena, and Bellevue HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Dubuque, Manchester, Galena, Asbury, Dyersville, Bellevue, Cascade, Epworth, East Dubuque, Farley, Peosta, Edgewood, Earlville, Hopkinton, Delhi, New Vienna, Colesburg, Worthington, Scales Mound, and Holy Cross. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4263 9071 4251 9064 4251 9022 4215 9032 4238 9143 4264 9161 TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 274DEG 37KT 4249 9070 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 LOT mesoscale update .MESOSCALE... Issued at 546 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Explosive severe thunderstorm development has taken place across Iowa, with storm tops exceeding 65kft. Special soundings from DVN and ILX both show extreme instability and moderate deep layer shear, though sufficient shear to support storm scale organization in light of the extreme instability. Already seeing signs of amalgamating cold pools/downdrafts with convection over Iowa with radar showing some developing rear inflow jets. The evolution of the convection so far continues to fit the expectations for today with evolution to QLCS well underway. As cold pool strengthens, would anticipate a QLCS to begin accelerating eastward with increasing damaging wind threat as storms approach and cross the Mississippi River. Strengthening low level jet this evening over northern Illinois should result in a ramping up of low level shear and coincident increasing threat of QLCS tornadoes with bowing segments and/or line embedded supercells. Given the shear/instability combo, threat is certainly there for a large number of QLCS tornadoes this evening over northern IL. Recent satellite/radar imagery shows some cells developing over far northern Winnebago County near the Wisconsin line. This could be the beginnings of a "warm air advection" wind ahead of the Iowa QLCS, which if it is and continues to fill in this could result in a potential significant/high end flash flood threat in our CWA if storms drift south of the IL/WI border. Given the vulnerability of the Rockford area due to nearly 10" of rain over the past 48 hours, this will be something that we will be monitoring extremely closely. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 Tornado warnings all along that line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 This is a very impressive mcs/qlcs. Going to be several tornadoes and destructive winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Ugh, to stay up for this line or go to bed.. that’s the question. I feel like it’s going to split us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 (edited) Peak strength Wow. Models had this diving more south into IL but its still riding ESE. Perhaps the MCV at the IL/WI will continue into MI but the rest of the system will gust out. Edited July 16 by junior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Stay safe everyone! I was pulling up the lightning tracker map for the small storms we are having in VT and noticed there was constant lightning in the Midwest region. It looks like it could be a very dangerous state situation out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Power outages are climbing fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Chicago and Gary with storm warnings and tornado warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Central Illinois into central Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160237Z - 160400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream watch across central Illinois into central Indiana is expected within the next hour as a severe MCS continues to push east/southeast. DISCUSSION...The southern end of a severe MCS continues to propagate to the southeast along and south of a diffuse baroclinic zone draped into eastern IL/central IN. Severe winds continue to be reported with this line over the past 30 minutes, and GOES IR imagery continues to show strong updraft pulses along the leading edge of the cold pool. High boundary-layer moisture content downstream into central IL/central IN (dewpoints in the upper 70s) will modulate the effects of nocturnal cooling/stabilization resulting in ample buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) with limited inhibition for MCS maintenance. Consequently, the expectation is for the MCS to continue well into central IL/central IN with an attendant threat for severe winds, including the potential for signification severe winds (75+ mph). ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/16/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 Don't see this everyday. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 954 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 INC089-160315- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-240716T0315Z/ Lake IN- 954 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR LAKE COUNTY... At 954 PM CDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line extending from South Deering to Dyer to near Grant Park, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornadoes. This storm is producing mulitple tornadoes at the same time! SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Hammond, Gary, Merrillville, East Chicago, Schererville, Hobart, Crown Point, Highland, Cedar Lake, Lowell, Portage, Lakes of the Four Seasons and New Chicago. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4130 8753 4171 8752 4170 8751 4167 8747 4167 8744 4168 8743 4167 8742 4165 8744 4164 8743 4162 8729 4162 8722 4130 8722 TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 263DEG 53KT 4168 8754 4148 8752 4126 8754 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 16 Author Share Posted July 16 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East central Illinois West central into central Indiana * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1055 PM until 500 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-formed, bowing squall line with a history of damaging winds will continue east-southeastward from Illinois into Indiana through the early morning hours. Wind damage and severe wind gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter and a tornado or two with embedded circulations will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Decatur IL to 40 miles northeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 539...WW 541... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 (edited) Definitely the significant wind threat/45% was necessary triple tornado warnings near Chicago earlier the storm had 6500 J/kg to work with earlier Edited July 16 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Nice storm here. Got pretty windy and the power flickered several times, but no signs of damage right here from what I can tell. I saw several green flashes in the sky that looked like transformers blowing. Looks like there were multiple tornadoes in Chicago metro, and might've had something tornadic in the city again for the 2nd night in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 Hey AA1776, this is ATC, we just received a tornado warning alert so we're going to have to evacuate the tower and ground control is heading in for cover too. Good luck out there and we'll get back to you once the tornado passes. Talk about negligence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted July 16 Share Posted July 16 4 hours ago, cer5059 said: Hey AA1776, this is ATC, we just received a tornado warning alert so we're going to have to evacuate the tower and ground control is heading in for cover too. Good luck out there and we'll get back to you once the tornado passes. Talk about negligence It seems someone didnt do a good job looking downstream to see what was coming there way. This could have been a huge mass casualty event. I hope the powers that be make some changes for the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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