snowlover2 Posted July 14 Author Share Posted July 14 8 minutes ago, Chinook said: storm directly over Dayton The cell that is east of Beavercreek in that image had more of a punch than the line itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 (edited) This is a regular thing around here concerning MCS’. Lammmmme Edited July 14 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Mesoscale Discussion 1615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of IA...northern IL...southern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142015Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected later this afternoon into the evening. Eventual watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Rather strong heating/destabilization is underway across much of IA this afternoon, while recovery in the wake of morning convection/outflow is ongoing across northern IL. Meanwhile, the remnant MCV from last night's severe MCS over the Dakotas is currently moving across northern IA. As MLCINH continues to erode across northern/eastern IA and MLCAPE increases above 3000 J/kg, the MCV may aid in scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong across the region, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt and potential for some storm organization. Initial discrete development could evolve into a supercell or two, with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. In conjunction with the MCV, a persistent 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet could encourage relatively quick clustering and upscale growth, with some potential for an MCS to develop and move eastward across northern IL and southern WI this evening, with a continued severe-wind threat. Farther northwest, in the wake of the MCV, cumulus is deepening along a weak surface boundary across northwest IA. While this area is in the immediate wake of the MCV, strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear would support severe-thunderstorm potential in this area as well, if storms can mature. While favored timing and area remain somewhat uncertain, watch issuance will become increasingly likely if storm initiation appears imminent across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Pretty good MCS. Was not at home but my gutter water catcher thingy escaped on my ring video. Must have been a bit windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted July 14 Admin Share Posted July 14 Across the street neighbors had major wind damage.. but nothing at our house. Nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Extreme instability now building back in 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Mcs taking off now in northern Illinois. This complex of storms will have plenty of energy to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 A lot of people who got the first round are going to get lucky again later tonight…probably will skirt to the SW of here again, but maybe something can hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Lots of damage in the Cambridge City, IN area earlier today. I would expect an assessment for a potential tornado by the NWS. If this would be confirmed, it would be the second within 3 miles of my house this year. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Dying MCS suck.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Strong storms popping up in Indiana/Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Strong storms popping up in Indiana/Ohio Yeah these popped out of nowhere. Already had a good one and appears training could happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Convective Chronicles video. I am starting to think that there is a higher chance of a derecho type situation. The HRRR says it will be 11 hrs before it really gets going in northern Indiana, but it might be sooner than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 LOT has confirmed 3 tornadoes from last night, all EF-0. 2 of them were on the south side of Chicago. I had noticed a brief tornado warning for the city last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 SPC just upgraded to moderate risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: SPC just upgraded to moderate risk. Starting to get real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 15 Author Share Posted July 15 Getting damn close lightning strikes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 (edited) Edit. Nuclear cape also! This could get ugly These dewpoints are insane. Edited July 15 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Edit. Nuclear cape also! This could get ugly These dewpoints are insane. Corn belt living up to its name. Been flirting with 80 dews around here again today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Good ol summer cells here. Storms looks nasty already in IA. Watch out for that downstream MCS especially in IL and IN. It’ll be decaying by the time it reaches here im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 1 minute ago, junior said: Good ol summer cells here. Storms looks nasty already in IA. Watch out for that downstream MCS especially in IL and IN. It’ll be decaying by the time it reaches here im sure. I would not be surprised is if this mcs dives southeast faster. I've seen it happen too many times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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