Jump to content

July 13-?, 2024 | Potential MCS Pattern


Recommended Posts

image.thumb.png.912078469ea774dbcbba5eb24bcf4dde.png

Mesoscale Discussion 1615

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

 

   Areas affected...Parts of IA...northern IL...southern WI

 

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

 

   Valid 142015Z - 142145Z

 

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

 

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected later this

   afternoon into the evening. Eventual watch issuance is likely.

 

   DISCUSSION...Rather strong heating/destabilization is underway

   across much of IA this afternoon, while recovery in the wake of

   morning convection/outflow is ongoing across northern IL. Meanwhile,

   the remnant MCV from last night's severe MCS over the Dakotas is

   currently moving across northern IA. As MLCINH continues to erode

   across northern/eastern IA and MLCAPE increases above 3000 J/kg, the

   MCV may aid in scattered thunderstorm development later this

   afternoon. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong across the

   region, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt and

   potential for some storm organization. 

 

   Initial discrete development could evolve into a supercell or two,

   with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a

   tornado. In conjunction with the MCV, a persistent 20-30 kt

   southwesterly low-level jet could encourage relatively quick

   clustering and upscale growth, with some potential for an MCS to

   develop and move eastward across northern IL and southern WI this

   evening, with a continued severe-wind threat.  

 

   Farther northwest, in the wake of the MCV, cumulus is deepening

   along a weak surface boundary across northwest IA. While this area

   is in the immediate wake of the MCV, strong buoyancy and sufficient

   deep-layer shear would support severe-thunderstorm potential in this

   area as well, if storms can mature. 

 

   While favored timing and area remain somewhat uncertain, watch

   issuance will become increasingly likely if storm initiation appears

   imminent across the region.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lots of damage in the Cambridge City, IN area earlier today. I would expect an assessment for a potential tornado by the NWS. If this would be confirmed, it would be the second within 3 miles of my house this year. Crazy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Strong storms popping up in Indiana/Ohio 

Yeah these popped out of nowhere. Already had a good one and appears training could happen.

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Convective Chronicles video. I am starting to think that there is a higher chance of a derecho type situation. The HRRR says it will be 11 hrs before it really gets going in northern Indiana, but it might be sooner than that.

 

convective chronicles.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT has confirmed 3 tornadoes from last night, all EF-0.  2 of them were on the south side of Chicago.  I had noticed a brief tornado warning for the city last night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Edit. Nuclear cape also! This could get ugly image.thumb.png.424fa0a5080f33d57394b4d1f0b11c5f.png

These dewpoints are insane.image.png.16921cb3090510bcb9140f6230d6dc93.png

Corn belt living up to its name.  Been flirting with 80 dews around here again today.

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good ol summer cells here. Storms looks nasty already in IA. Watch out for that downstream MCS especially in IL and IN. It’ll be decaying by the time it reaches here im sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, junior said:

Good ol summer cells here. Storms looks nasty already in IA. Watch out for that downstream MCS especially in IL and IN. It’ll be decaying by the time it reaches here im sure. 

I would not be surprised is if this mcs dives southeast faster. I've seen it happen too many times

  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...