July 13-?, 2024 | Potential MCS Pattern

[snowlover2]

Looks like we have a severe weather/MCS pattern setting up starting tomorrow.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[snowlover2]

Plenty of MCS's on the 18z HRRR.

[snowlover2]

Pretty good afternoon disco from ILN.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The focus of the short term period is going to be potential for
both storms and heat. Although there is some uncertainty
regarding both, especially in terms of specific timing and
location, there is a slightly stronger signal that has emerged
in some of the short-term guidance suggesting that a decaying
MCS will work its way into the nrn OH Vly after daybreak Sunday.
While the focus of this activity will initially be to the N of
the local area where the better forcing/shear will be
collocated, the MCS may lay out a thermally-induced boundary in
the nrn/wrn OH Vly into early Sunday afternoon. With some good
diurnally-driven instby expected to develop, it won`t take much
to initiate, or perhaps maintain, some convection stemming from
an MCS influence of some sort.

While the shear and forcing will be increasingly meager with
southward extent, a better pooling of richer LL moisture/instby
will be positioned to the SW of the best shear/forcing,
suggesting redevelopment in some capacity on the SW flank of a
decaying MCS and/or boundary as we progress into Sunday
afternoon. With the activity largely cold-pool driven, this
suggests that ISO/SCT convection may redevelop (initially off to
the W/NW of the ILN FA) before progressing to the E/SE through
the local area during the heart of the afternoon/early evening.
As with any convection that is largely driven from mesoscale
boundary positioning/interactions, there are uncertainties
regarding coverage/location/timing with pretty much all of the
specifics. But... from an ingredients perspective, there will be
the potential for ISO/SCT storms posing a gusty wind threat for
many spots near/N of the OH Rvr and especially near/N of I-71
into the afternoon. Some isolated damaging wind will be possible
with any of this activity given the 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
steep LL lapse rates, and favorable DCAPE environment.

The other aspect of the weather Sunday, one that should not be
overlooked, will be the combination of heat and humidity that will
lead to the potential for some heat index values around 100
degrees across central and southern portions of the region on
Sunday. This may be more widespread if storm activity is more
isolated and/or delayed than current forecasts. However, given
the prospect of storms/convectively-driven cloud cover,
confidence was not yet high enough to issue a Heat Advisory.

The setup on Sunday night offers its own set of challenges as
well as there are indications for another S/W to move to the
ESE through the nrn OH Vly, with westerly midlevel flow
developing to its W/SW, suggesting a backbuilding convective
setup somewhere near/N of the I-70 corridor. Of course, the
convection evolution and environment augmentation that occurs
during the daytime period will undoubtedly play a role in
exactly where storm activity may redevelop/persist during the
nighttime hours. For now, have maintained a chance PoP near/N of
I-70 to account for this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Summertime pattern continues to start the extended period. Weak mid-
level ridging will likely build east into the Ohio Valley Monday
into early Tuesday. Can`t rule out an isolated storm or two Monday
with low-level moisture and persistent instability, however the
primary weather story during this time will be increasing heat under
the ridge. Blended guidance shows max heat indices from 100 to 105
degrees Monday and near 100 degrees on Tuesday.

By later on Tuesday, digging shortwave energy will cause a cold
front to sag southeast into the Ohio Valley late in the day. Showers
and storms will increase in coverage ahead of this feature Tuesday
afternoon and continue into Wednesday as the front moves through the
CWA. Cooler air arrives behind the front Wednesday and continues to
provide relief to the heat through the end of the week.

 

[snowlover2]

[Chinook]

Sometimes I feel like the HRRR does not fire up enough storms until like 2 hrs before they go.

[Chinook]

a squall line has produced 60-100mph winds in South Dakota

[snowlover2]

Quote

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains
   into the Upper Midwest.

   ...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest...

   Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the
   day1 period, though some amplification is possible later in the
   week. Upper high is forecast to remain anchored in the Four Corners
   vicinity while seasonally strong mid-level flow will hold along a
   corridor near the US/Canadian border. Negligible height changes are
   expected during the first half of the period, though a few notable
   short waves will track east-southeast from southern AB/SK into the
   Great Lakes. Each short-wave trough should encourage convective
   development -- some of it will likely be severe.

   Early this morning, a weak MCS was propagating southeast across
   northern IL/southern Lake MI. This activity is supported by a weak
   disturbance and should progress into the southern Great Lakes/OH
   Valley later today. Diurnal heating will contribute to strong
   buoyancy, and robust updrafts may evolve along the leading debris
   field by mid day. Locally severe winds may develop if convection
   reintensifies.

   Of more concern will be convection that develops across the northern
   Plains later in the afternoon. A strong short-wave trough will dig
   southeast across southern AB by 15/00z before translating into
   MB/eastern Dakotas by the end of the period. It appears a weak
   surface low should evolve ahead of this feature over eastern MT
   early, then shift into central SD by peak heating. A
   northwest-southeast corridor of low-level warm advection will extend
   across the Dakotas north of a synoptic boundary that will be draped
   from southern MN-central SD-northeast MT. Strong boundary-layer
   heating will negate CINH across the High Plains such that isolated
   convection should develop by 22z. This activity will mature and grow
   upscale through the evening. Early storm mode should be
   supercellular, then clustering will lead to an MCS that is expected
   to track southeast toward the mid MO Valley. Very steep lapse rates
   will lead to strong buoyancy, and potentially very large hail
   (possibly in excess of 2 inches). Very strong winds (>70mph) may
   also be noted along the leading edge of the surging MCS.

   ..Darrow/Moore.. 07/14/2024

 

[junior]

MCS season is upon us.

[snowlover2]

Upgraded to slight risk.

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
   CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO
   VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains
   into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing
   from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone
   over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through
   the period.  A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to
   northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the
   Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern
   fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and
   Ohio Valleys.  Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now
   over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the
   flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period.
    Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel
   imagery over parts of northern/western AB.  This feature should move
   southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach
   the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period.

   At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential
   mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a
   synoptic warm to stationary front.  These will be discussed in
   greater detail below.  As the outlook areas are predicated on
   multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS
   activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day
   as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better.

   ...Northern Plains...
   One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the
   region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. 
   This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. 
   However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any
   specific significant-gust area.  The airmass in and around the one
   from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially
   overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS.

   Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and
   convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size,
   and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this
   area.  The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over
   ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of
   last night.  This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically,
   given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the
   approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual
   moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its
   inflow region.  Still, questions remain regarding how much
   associated convectively processed air will affect inflow
   trajectories of activity farther north.  The outflow boundary from
   that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a
   broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA,
   southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow
   aloft and south of supportive upper-air features.  Given these
   intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been
   trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight
   complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain.

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States...
   This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though
   considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in
   terms of total report distribution.  Skeletal remnants of an earlier
   MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent
   over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI.
    The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA
   near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by
   outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was
   penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but
   undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection.  As
   this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into
   less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near
   and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening
   appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the
   main concern.

   Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in
   turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and
   eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with
   some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but
   steady low-level warm advection.  When the remnant pressure/theta
   perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary
   this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest
   MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick
   upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible.  As with its
   predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along
   and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the
   mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large
   hail.  The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these
   potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface
   dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally
   higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a
   corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL
   area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN.

   ...AZ...
   Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
   afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating
   preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward
   or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. 
   Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells,
   atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic
   lapse rates from surface to LFC.  This motion should be supported by
   a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. 
   Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors
   through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE,
   and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE.

   ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024

 

[snowlover2]

Possible watch coming.

Quote

 Mesoscale Discussion 1612
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast IL...northern IN...western OH...extreme
   southern MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141408Z - 141615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging-wind potential may increase through the morning.

   DISCUSSION...A remnant MCS is moving across northeast IL this
   morning, with some recent intensification noted along the gust front
   over the last hour. With relatively limited cloudiness noted over
   northern IN, diurnal destabilization is expected through the morning
   downstream of this system, with strengthening low-level lapse rates
   and MLCAPE potentially increasing to near/above 2000 J/kg. This
   destabilization may allow for continued reorganization of the
   remnant MCS, with a resulting increase in damaging-wind potential as
   it tracks east-southeastward through the morning. Watch issuance is
   possible if further short-term intensification is noted this
   morning.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024

 

[snowlover2]

ILN updated the near term part after the slight risk was added.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
950 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
The patchy fog from earlier has since dissipated, with some
convectively-induced clouds lingering across far nrn parts of WC
OH into central OH this morning. Elsewhere, mainly clear skies
will continue through the next few hours before some diurnally-
driven Cu sprout about once again by late morning into early
afternoon.

There is increasing concern this morning that the potential for
more widespread strong to severe storms may evolve this
afternoon into early evening. One weakening MCS across NW OH
will continue to migrate to the ESE, posing little threat as it
moves away from the pooling of better LL moisture/instby back to
the W across parts of IN into far wrn OH. Robust destabilization
is expected across at least the wrn/NW 2/3 of the ILN FA into
early afternoon, with the early afternoon environment
characterized by MLCAPE ~2000+ J/kg across parts of the area.
This development of strong instby will be aided by broad SW
flow, helping advect in richer LL moisture into many spots
near/N of the OH Rvr (and especially near/N of I-71) through
the afternoon. With a destabilizing environment ahead of a
MCS/SE-propagating boundary into nrn/central IN/IL early this
afternoon, there should be good support for
re-intensification/redevelopment of convection along the
leading edge of the complex past noon. Given the cold pool
environment already established with the activity upstream, it
is likely that the complex will maintain a linear, or perhaps
bowing, shape as it progresses into the local area, posing a
broad-scale gusty to damaging wind threat as it translates to
the SE through during the heart of the mid/late afternoon hours.
The current thinking is that the most favorable areas to be
impacted by these storms will be near/N of the OH Rvr, angling
from WNW to ESE with its progression. This activity should
eventually wane with SE extent into early evening, perhaps
redeveloping more on the southern flank toward the Tri-State
toward the best instby.

But before we even get to the storms this afternoon, abundant
sunshine will allow for temps to climb quickly into the upper
80s/lower 90s, especially across the Tri-State into N-cntrl KY.
In these areas, the combination of temps in the lower 90s and
dewpoints around 70 degrees will allow for heat index values to
get very close to, if not exceed, 100 degrees. There is,
however, enough uncertainty as it relates to the timing of
storms/clouds coming in from the NW, that did not yet have the
confidence to pull the trigger on a Heat Advisory for these
areas. But it will be close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
While models are showing variable solutions for convective
activity during this time, in general have a decreasing trend in
convection at the start of the short term. There will then be
the potential for additional development of storms overnight as
well. Heading into the day on Monday, several models are showing
some convective activity especially across northern portions of
the region. There will be the potential for severe weather
across primarily northern portions of the region for Monday.

It is this chance of convective activity that the decision was
to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday. There is the
potential for a large portion of the region to hit heat advisory
criteria on Monday, however given uncertainty in convection
decided to hold off on issuing an advisory until there is more
agreement in thunderstorm timing and placement.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front will approach from the northwest through the day on
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 80s in the
northwest to the mid 90s across our southeast with heat indices of
100 degrees or so possible in the afternoon. As we destabilize
through the day and the front approaches, expect an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon,
especially across our northwest.

There are still some timing differences with the front, but it
should slowly sag southeast across our area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With good moisture advection ahead of the front, expect
fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to push slowly south
across our area. PWS will climb up in excess of 2 inches along and
ahead of the front and with some training possible, there will be
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.
Deep layer shear will also slowly increase along and ahead of the
front so a few strong to severe storms will also be possible with
damaging wind the primary threat.

A drier and cooler airmass will settle in behind the front through
the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees below
normal Thursday and Friday with daytime highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Temperatures will moderate a bit heading into the weekend
with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s.

 

[snowlover2]

Watch just issued for IN/OH.

[snowlover2]

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 532
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central Indiana
     Central Ohio

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
     700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northern Indiana will track
   southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a
   risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north
   northwest of Indianapolis IN to 30 miles east northeast of Columbus
   OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
   outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   29030.

   ...Hart

 

[Chinook]

Last night ended up being a nasty nighttime storm for South Dakota.

For today, there are some recent wind reports in Indiana already with this semi-organized squall line.

[NWOhioChaser]

Swing and a miss for this line here, but looks like it’s packing a punch further southwest. 

[snowlover2]

Risk areas expanded and enhanced added to updated day 2.

Quote

 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest
   into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region
   tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible.
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central
   Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona.

   ...Synopsis...
   A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the
   Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the
   western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over
   the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around
   the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a
   surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep
   southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple
   areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the
   Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential
   influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes.
   Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general
   synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at
   least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should
   occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late
   afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong
   to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate
   the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting
   around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based
   strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to
   the central High Plains.

   ...Midwest into the OH Valley...
   Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the
   Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or
   of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early
   afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the
   region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface
   baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints
   will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost
   MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly
   flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and
   modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and
   curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This
   environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive
   bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts
   (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members
   also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some
   uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some
   members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1
   convection, or from new convective development over central IA.
   Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the
   position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to
   extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a
   bow echo would materialize and track.

   A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region
   where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some
   adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone
   placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado
   probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most
   likely reach mature stage, where line-end and
   leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS
   tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does
   not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest
   tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid
   strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of
   concern.

   ...Portions of the Northeast...
   The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic
   flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late
   morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm
   coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several
   areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching
   7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley
   though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk
   effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional
   multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging
   gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset.

   ...Portions of the Central High Plains...
   Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem
   with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered
   thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40
   kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an
   anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the
   central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well
   mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse
   rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer
   convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A
   Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central
   High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest
   (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where
   cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur.

   ...Portions of southern into central Arizona...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by
   afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow
   pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the
   storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed
   boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the
   storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support
   MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the
   hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30
   kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late
   afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust
   threat.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Respectable mcs ongoing right now with deep thunder

[StormfanaticInd]

23 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Risk areas expanded and enhanced added to updated day 2.

 

We are positioned perfectly for a couple of severe mcs or even a possible derecho 

[StormfanaticInd]

Watching Iowa and northern Illinois for possible next mcs development later this afternoon into the evening 

[NWOhioChaser]

These things most always drop Southeast before the get to Toledo…

Edited July 14 by NWOhioChaser

[snowlover2]

I just went under a warning.

[snowlover2]

[snowlover2]

This cell in front of the line is packing a good punch itself right now.

[Chinook]

storm directly over Dayton