snowlover2 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Beryl will make landfall on the SE Texas coast and track up through the OV and Great Lakes area bringing heavy rain and possible severe weather/tornadoes. The day 3 disco mentions the possible need for higher probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Reposting this from July thread: As far as the remnants of Beryl... Not quite sure where it will set up, but it looks like there could be a swath of about 3-6" of rain somewhere around here. Also potential for some gusty winds near the track, perhaps near (or even over) 40 mph depending on how much mixing occurs. Low levels should have some stability with the clouds/precip but any heavier rain/embedded convective elements could cause more efficient momentum transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Just starting to enter the picture on this image, but it looks like temps could be held in the 60s on the northwest flank of the remnants where the heaviest rains set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Gonna be interesting how this evolves. Timing may save us from severe stuff around here but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 8 Author Share Posted July 8 0z HRRR with signs of supercells around here on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 8 Author Share Posted July 8 Updated track from NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Tornado driven slight risk tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 (edited) As far as remnant tropical systems in the Ohio Valley/Lakes go, it looks like this one could be better than average for the areas that get in on it. Not only a good signal for a band of 3-6" of rain (locally higher?), but also some signs of wind gusts increasing to the 40-50 mph range for a period of time. Edited July 8 by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: As far as remnant tropical systems in the Ohio Valley/Lakes go, it looks like this one could be better than average for the areas that get in on it. Not only a good signal for a band of 3-6" of rain (locally higher?), but also some signs of wind gusts increasing to the 40-50 mph range for a period of time. Interesting about the wind gusts. Makes me think of Ike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Interesting about the wind gusts. Makes me think of Ike Ike was just nuts in terms of wind. Won't be quite like that lol, but enough to take notice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are also possible over portions of New England. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity. Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys. Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley... Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover. Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e. southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Pretty impressive tornado event from Beryl today, I've seen quite a few PDS warnings so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 😬😬😬😬 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Several confirmed tornadoes on the ground right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 11 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Pretty impressive tornado event from Beryl today, I've seen quite a few PDS warnings so far Wonder if this system's efficient tornado production is tipping its hand as far as how tomorrow goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 I'd like to put in a personal order for the 18z NAM 3 km. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 8 Author Share Posted July 8 ILN talking tornadoes tomorrow evening. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Inverted trough across the region at the beginning of the period will become more pronounced during the day as the remnants of Beryl move northeast. This boundary will become an effective warm front and lift as the center of the low circulation moves into eastern Indiana by daybreak Wednesday. With backed winds and gradually increasing flow, hodographs will take on a favorable orientation. In addition, LCLs are forecast to lower as the atmospheric column moistens. It may be too moist to have much instability or thunder, but conditions could become favorable for tornadoes, as can typically happen on the eastern side of tropical remnants. This is highly conditional, but will have to be watched closely heading into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect to see showers and some thunderstorms develop into the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon and become widespread generally north and west of I-71 Tuesday night. South and east of there precipitation may be more transient and not necessarily occurring everywhere. Given the track of the low center, widespread heavy rain is not a substantial concern, especially given the generally dry antecedent conditions. But with tropical moisture, cannot discount the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Expect a relatively strong gradient in temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s in eastern Indiana but still reaching the lower 90s in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 The raw 2m temps from various models actually has temps down in the low 60s Wednesday afternoon on the northwestern side of the low. That would be pretty impressive for July 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Long tracked pds warning continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The raw 2m temps from various models actually has temps down in the low 60s Wednesday afternoon on the northwestern side of the low. That would be pretty impressive for July 10. With the wind that could make for a very chilly raw day by July standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 5 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Long tracked pds warning continues Not often you get a tornado moving northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 New pds warning ⚠️ 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: New pds warning ⚠️ 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 It has been a little tough to watch the radar from each tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 8 Author Share Posted July 8 Appears a confirmed tornado headed towards Shreveport LA. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Shreveport LA 527 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 LAC017-031-082300- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0084.000000T0000Z-240708T2300Z/ De Soto LA-Caddo LA- 527 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL DE SOTO AND SOUTHWESTERN CADDO PARISHES... At 527 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles northeast of Stonewall, or 8 miles southeast of Shreveport, moving northwest at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Shreveport around 530 PM CDT. Greenwood around 555 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Forbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3243 9397 3256 9377 3255 9376 3254 9377 3253 9375 3241 9369 3240 9369 3232 9364 3227 9371 TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 141DEG 18KT 3235 9374 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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