June 30-? Severe Weather Potential

[snowlover2]

Appears to be a threat of severe weather all week long this week.

Quote

  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Wednesday...
   At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across
   parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the
   moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and
   reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor
   from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into
   Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector
   will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe
   storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the
   north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still
   preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for
   these scenarios. 

   ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri...
   Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough,
   and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great
   Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this
   mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample
   instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may
   set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri,
   and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and
   western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection
   Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus
   defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe
   probabilities. 

   ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday...
   Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors
   of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally
   spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and
   potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday,
   related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough,
   an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the
   Lake Erie vicinity.

   ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024

 

[snowlover2]

18z NAM for Wednesday evening. There would likely be insane rain rates if this happens. The white areas on the pwat map are around 3" which is off the charts.

[snowlover2]

0z NAM not backing off.

[StormfanaticInd]

Man Thursday and Friday is starting to look very interesting. 

[snowlover2]

Ohio has broken the tornado record!

Quote

Eric Elwell 

  · 

 

 

TORNADO #63!

The NWS confirmed that a brief EF0 tornado touched down in Huron County late Saturday morning near the community of Willard.

Ohio has now officially broken the record for the most tornadoes in a year - breaking the 1992 record of 62 tornadoes.

 

[junior]

Had a nice shelf cloud come through here. Torrential rains very much needed.

[Chinook]

27 minutes ago, junior said:

Had a nice shelf cloud come through here. Torrential rains very much needed.

cool!

Always nice to see something that's kind of scary, with non-severe weather

here's the almost-supercell looking storm by Springfield now, probably not too much to worry about

nasty hailstorm with possible (non-confirmed) tornado in the sparsely populated sand hills of Nebraska (nearest city:Valentine NE)