June 30-?, 2024 | Severe Weather Potential

[snowlover2]

Appears to be a threat of severe weather all week long this week.

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  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Wednesday...
   At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across
   parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the
   moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and
   reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor
   from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into
   Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector
   will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe
   storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the
   north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still
   preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for
   these scenarios. 

   ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri...
   Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough,
   and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great
   Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this
   mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample
   instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may
   set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri,
   and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and
   western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection
   Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus
   defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe
   probabilities. 

   ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday...
   Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors
   of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally
   spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and
   potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday,
   related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough,
   an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the
   Lake Erie vicinity.

   ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024

 

[snowlover2]

18z NAM for Wednesday evening. There would likely be insane rain rates if this happens. The white areas on the pwat map are around 3" which is off the charts.

[snowlover2]

0z NAM not backing off.

[StormfanaticInd]

Man Thursday and Friday is starting to look very interesting. 

[snowlover2]

Ohio has broken the tornado record!

Quote

Eric Elwell 

  · 

 

 

TORNADO #63!

The NWS confirmed that a brief EF0 tornado touched down in Huron County late Saturday morning near the community of Willard.

Ohio has now officially broken the record for the most tornadoes in a year - breaking the 1992 record of 62 tornadoes.

 

[junior]

Had a nice shelf cloud come through here. Torrential rains very much needed.

[Chinook]

27 minutes ago, junior said:

Had a nice shelf cloud come through here. Torrential rains very much needed.

cool!

Always nice to see something that's kind of scary, with non-severe weather

here's the almost-supercell looking storm by Springfield now, probably not too much to worry about

nasty hailstorm with possible (non-confirmed) tornado in the sparsely populated sand hills of Nebraska (nearest city:Valentine NE)

 

[snowlover2]

Torrential rain here now.

[snowlover2]

Interesting from ILN concerning later this afternoon.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Regional radar mosaic is quite active this morning as
thunderstorms continue to develop and persist across much of
southern/south-central Indiana. A pseudo-warm front wing is
also developing thunderstorms into portions of northern Kentucky
and soon, southeast Indiana. PoPs have been adjusted to the
latest radar trends and mesoscale factors through the early
afternoon.

The latest 12Z HRRR is likely too quick with the erosion of the
thunderstorm activity, so this increases uncertainty for the
overall CAM projections for the next, more concerning round of
development later this afternoon and early evening. With the 13Z
update, SPC introduced a Level 2 of 5 risk (Slight Risk
including 5% tornado) into southeast Indiana, northern
Kentucky, and portions of southwest Ohio. This scenario becomes
more plausible the faster the ongoing thunderstorm activity
clears, allowing for mass support northward ahead of an
approaching MCV. If enough clearing can occur, the potential
exists for discrete storms to persist within an environment of
strengthening deep- layer flow and backed low- level flow. The
magnitude of the backed flow may be largely dependent on the
remnant cold-pool air mass left behind modifies with afternoon
heating and moisture transport.

To the north of this morning`s thunderstorm activity, a broad
shield of light-moderate rain with embedded thunder is expected
through the rest of the morning. This should gradually decrease
in coverage as the thunderstorm activity to the south shifts
east. Additional, scattered thunderstorm activity will be
possible late this afternoon into the evening hours, but the
overall severe threat is limited.

While much of the previous discussion was focused on the severe
weather threat, the east to west corridor of thunderstorms this
morning may bring cause for locally heavy rainfall depending on
how quickly it propagates eastward. Southeast Indiana and
portions of northern Kentucky currently stand the best chance of
observing the locally heavy rainfall. This could lead to high
water in a few spots.

 

[SnowloverSid]

I was awakened by a thunderstorm that saw lots of lightning and thunder for nearly an hour before the downpour came. When it did come, it seemed like an inch of rain within a half an hour here in St. Louis. I hope this is not a repeat of the cloudburst and flooding of July 26, 2022, which occurred at the same early- morning hours that the current storm is.

[NWOhioChaser]

Tornado warning in north central Michigan.

[snowlover2]

Ohio up to 64 tornadoes now.

Quote

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
909 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LOGAN COUNTY OHIO...

Start Location...3 ESE De Graff in Logan County OH
End Location...3 ESE De Graff in Logan County OH
Date...07/04/2024
Estimated Start Time...08:44 PM EDT
Estimated End Time...08:44 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...65 mph
Maximum Path Width...50.0 yards
Path Length...0.17 mile
Beginning Lat/Lon...40.2923 / -83.8646
Ending Lat/Lon...40.2938 / -83.8619
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

...Summary...
With assistance from the Logan County Emergency Agency, local
fire officials, and publicly provided photos and video, the
National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio has confirmed a
brief and weak tornado southeast of De Graff, OH on the evening
of July 4th, 2024.Video confirms the development of a brief
tornado that lasts about 10 seconds, and minor tree damage was
reported at several residences along County Road 31 South in
southwest Logan County, in addition to patio furniture being
thrown. The video shows the tornado rapidly dissipating after its
initial development. Damage is consistent with winds around 65
mph.

The National Weather Service extends appreciation to the Logan
County Emergency Management Agency, local fire departments,
trained spotters, and public for information surrounding this
brief tornado.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.