snowlover2 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) Appears to be a threat of severe weather all week long this week. Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and south-central Plains within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front and reinforcing outflows. This severe potential could include a corridor from Ohio/Indiana/Illinois southwestward across the Ozarks into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the north-central High Plains. Risk-magnitude uncertainties still preclude 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Day 5/Thursday Midwest including Iowa/Missouri... Guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, may set up across the southern half of Iowa, northern half of Missouri, and possibly nearby parts of southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas and western Illinois. However, the potential impacts of convection Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally, and will thus defer to future outlooks for an introduction of 15+ percent severe probabilities. ...Days 6-8 Friday-Sunday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. For instance, on Day 6/Friday, related to the east-northeastward progression of the upper trough, an area of interest includes parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Lake Erie vicinity. ..Guyer.. 06/30/2024 Edited July 6 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 18z NAM for Wednesday evening. There would likely be insane rain rates if this happens. The white areas on the pwat map are around 3" which is off the charts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 1 Author Share Posted July 1 0z NAM not backing off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Man Thursday and Friday is starting to look very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Ohio has broken the tornado record! Quote Eric Elwell · TORNADO #63! The NWS confirmed that a brief EF0 tornado touched down in Huron County late Saturday morning near the community of Willard. Ohio has now officially broken the record for the most tornadoes in a year - breaking the 1992 record of 62 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Had a nice shelf cloud come through here. Torrential rains very much needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 27 minutes ago, junior said: Had a nice shelf cloud come through here. Torrential rains very much needed. cool! Always nice to see something that's kind of scary, with non-severe weather here's the almost-supercell looking storm by Springfield now, probably not too much to worry about nasty hailstorm with possible (non-confirmed) tornado in the sparsely populated sand hills of Nebraska (nearest city:Valentine NE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 3 Author Share Posted July 3 Torrential rain here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 4 Author Share Posted July 4 Interesting from ILN concerning later this afternoon. Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Regional radar mosaic is quite active this morning as thunderstorms continue to develop and persist across much of southern/south-central Indiana. A pseudo-warm front wing is also developing thunderstorms into portions of northern Kentucky and soon, southeast Indiana. PoPs have been adjusted to the latest radar trends and mesoscale factors through the early afternoon. The latest 12Z HRRR is likely too quick with the erosion of the thunderstorm activity, so this increases uncertainty for the overall CAM projections for the next, more concerning round of development later this afternoon and early evening. With the 13Z update, SPC introduced a Level 2 of 5 risk (Slight Risk including 5% tornado) into southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and portions of southwest Ohio. This scenario becomes more plausible the faster the ongoing thunderstorm activity clears, allowing for mass support northward ahead of an approaching MCV. If enough clearing can occur, the potential exists for discrete storms to persist within an environment of strengthening deep- layer flow and backed low- level flow. The magnitude of the backed flow may be largely dependent on the remnant cold-pool air mass left behind modifies with afternoon heating and moisture transport. To the north of this morning`s thunderstorm activity, a broad shield of light-moderate rain with embedded thunder is expected through the rest of the morning. This should gradually decrease in coverage as the thunderstorm activity to the south shifts east. Additional, scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible late this afternoon into the evening hours, but the overall severe threat is limited. While much of the previous discussion was focused on the severe weather threat, the east to west corridor of thunderstorms this morning may bring cause for locally heavy rainfall depending on how quickly it propagates eastward. Southeast Indiana and portions of northern Kentucky currently stand the best chance of observing the locally heavy rainfall. This could lead to high water in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 I was awakened by a thunderstorm that saw lots of lightning and thunder for nearly an hour before the downpour came. When it did come, it seemed like an inch of rain within a half an hour here in St. Louis. I hope this is not a repeat of the cloudburst and flooding of July 26, 2022, which occurred at the same early- morning hours that the current storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Tornado warning in north central Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 5 Author Share Posted July 5 Ohio up to 64 tornadoes now. Quote Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 909 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LOGAN COUNTY OHIO... Start Location...3 ESE De Graff in Logan County OH End Location...3 ESE De Graff in Logan County OH Date...07/04/2024 Estimated Start Time...08:44 PM EDT Estimated End Time...08:44 PM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...65 mph Maximum Path Width...50.0 yards Path Length...0.17 mile Beginning Lat/Lon...40.2923 / -83.8646 Ending Lat/Lon...40.2938 / -83.8619 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 ...Summary... With assistance from the Logan County Emergency Agency, local fire officials, and publicly provided photos and video, the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio has confirmed a brief and weak tornado southeast of De Graff, OH on the evening of July 4th, 2024.Video confirms the development of a brief tornado that lasts about 10 seconds, and minor tree damage was reported at several residences along County Road 31 South in southwest Logan County, in addition to patio furniture being thrown. The video shows the tornado rapidly dissipating after its initial development. Damage is consistent with winds around 65 mph. The National Weather Service extends appreciation to the Logan County Emergency Management Agency, local fire departments, trained spotters, and public for information surrounding this brief tornado. EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 (edited) one confirmed and non-confirmed tornado warning today Edited July 6 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) Could be looking at a decent tornado threat this Tuesday. Something to monitor Edited July 7 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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