Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 23 minutes ago, MaineJay said: This is as of a couple hours ago. It appears that it may be going through an EWR, but if so, it's not really disrupting the core. NHC did confirm that it's highly likely it underwent another ERC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Two hunter missions currently. One is inbound from St Croix, the other is making its second pass through. First pass below. Easily matching the NHC intensity from 5am, and you could make the case it is actually stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 67.9W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Latest passes of two different hunters. Both support ~930 mb (ish), and ~170mph. I keep thinking we gotta start to see weakening, but not yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Dvorak sees it. Down to 6.2. Weakening flag on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 Watching trends for Jamaica and it's not looking good. Would be nice to see it weaken substantially before it either hits or sideswipes the island. GFS HWRF Consensus trend NHC trend Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 I do think we’re seeing Beryl weaken today… already seeing warmer cloud tops and the dry air wrapping and eroding the north and west sides. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 8am Vortex message with 148kt winds at surface, 150kt flt level and 938 pressure Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:06Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300 Storm Name: Beryl Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 9 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 11:31:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.98N 67.76W B. Center Fix Location: 262 statute miles (422 km) to the SSW (205°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,544m (8,346ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 29kts (From the SSW at 33mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 148kts (170.3mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) of center fix at 11:28:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 154° at 150kts (From the SSE at 172.6mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) of center fix at 11:28:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 111kts (127.7mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (226°) of center fix at 11:34:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 300° at 120kts (From the WNW at 138.1mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (226°) of center fix at 11:34:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center at 11:28:30Z But wow look at the winds on the sonde..... over 225mph. No surface reading but 30 feet above was 169. These are spot winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Burr said: I do think we’re seeing Beryl weaken today Looking at sonde data from Mission 8, it does appear to be weakening - 933, to 935 to 938, This was the highest surface spot wind I could find on the sondes. 183mph. The equivalent of an EF4 tornado. Edited July 2 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 Highest sfmr was 190mph. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2024&product=hdob&storm=Beryl&mission=08&agency=NOAA&ob=07-02-093130-07-951.6-161-165 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 (edited) A look at shear. You'll see it go lopsided when the shear really hits. Right now hard to tell with the dry air that got in there. Edited July 2 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Dvorak continuing to show weakening. Eye looks almost open to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 2 Admin Share Posted July 2 52 minutes ago, Burr said: Dvorak continuing to show weakening. Eye looks almost open to the northwest. Yes, she looks like she is beginning to feel the shear. I would say that we could see some rapid weakening if we play our cards right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 13:47 hdob still has winds over 160mph. SFMR winds 170. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 Starting to unwind. ADT crashing. Rapid weakening flag is on. Raw T is between yellow lines. Boxed FLG is the rapid weakening. The weakening flag is to the left of the boxed FLG. CI will lag, so it still shows 6.9 with 927 pressure. Going from 7 RawT and Adj T to 5.8 in 7 hours is really good news for Jamaica. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 (edited) Eye just north of the NHC projected track. Starting to lopside. Edited July 2 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 21 minutes ago, Burr said: Looks like the eyewall is still strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 3 minutes ago, clm said: Looks like the eyewall is still strong Thankfully that’s all that looks to be holding together. Dry air and shear should affect the core before too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Is the eyewall starting to fill in or just the angle of the sun and getting a bit cloudy in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Hmmm, looks like its filling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Looking briefly at some data and I'd say it's down to a 4 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 TWO of the 3 ADT weakening flags are "ON" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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