1816 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Just now, 1816 said: 155. In June. I'm not sure how much value we get from looking at precedents with regards to hurricanes anymore. At least when it comes to intensity. Insert Han solo bad feeling gif July. Whatever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Looney Tunes. Should be ~935mb and >157mph on the next update… (though we can update the title already to 938mb and 155mph already) Edited July 2 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 GOES satellite data is delayed… this was the last IR image on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Alright, looks like we’re just missing one frame, but that prevents me from getting a loop. The dry air wrapping around the central core appears to be an artifact of air pulled around from over South America. But these are the coldest cloudtops we’ve seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Dvorak Raw T at 6.8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Beryl broke some instrumentation, I’m afraid. No surface wind speed estimates. My reading on the raw data shows the extrapolated surface pressure on the last pass was 938.4mb. The previous pass had 934.1 (highlighted in last image). Edited July 2 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) New prediction for 11pm report: I don’t think we see any changes since 8pm… that first strong NOAA hunter pass was just not supported by the next one. Dvorak not supporting below 938mb either… (EDIT: I was wrong.) Edited July 2 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) FIVE BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...BERYL BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 64.9W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH ...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB ...27.70 INCHES Edited July 2 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 11pm NHC discussion: Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite helpful in assessing Beryl's structure and intensity. Within the past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 At least it's moving fast. Look how far away it is from Greneda and St. Vincent now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Short loop because of that earlier glitch Edited July 2 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Extrapolated surface 934.9mb on the last pass. Flight level winds not as high as the previous pass that convinced the NHC to upgrade to Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Not much analysis tonight. Just sitting here thinking...yep, that looks like what a Cat 5 should look like. Edited July 2 by Psu1313 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Like we are really seeing history in the making. So wild to think about . Who would’ve thought we’d have an Atlantic cat 5 on July 1st before a pacific storm has even been named. Wild 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Probably the last post for me tonight… 💤 Dvorak shows continued strengthening… RawT at 6.9. Pressure estimated at 933.5. Winds estimated at 155mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Every once in a while you look at the August SST's and think, such high temperatures would support a Category 5, but of course these don't come around every year. Now, this is nuts. I don't know if I've seen a Cat-5 equivalent in ANY basin on July 1st of ANY year. It's possible it could have happened in the E or W Pacific. But anyway, here's the evening recon graphic to go along with the other graphic posted above. 939mb and a bit of 137kt+ wind indicated. You want to know a bit of semi-related hurricane history? In 1988, Gilbert the Great had 888. Edited July 2 by Chinook 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Praying for Jamaica. My sister in law still has plenty of family in Jamaica and I have a few friends that are from Jamaica with their families still there. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 lol. CRAZY IVAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Can’t sleep. Beryl looking ummm, less organized. EWRC? Edited July 2 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Burr said: lol. CRAZY IVAN After a routine clearing of the baffles, NOAA hurricane hunter made another pass through the center. Peak flight level winds over 150knots again. Two surface pressure estimates at 932mb Edited July 2 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) ADT - T scores over 7 now Edited July 2 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) A northern shift to the path projections. ECMWF/GFS appear to now have Beryl pass directly over Jamaica Euro then take it over the Yucatan and it stays intact relatively (995mb) and SLAMS E Mexico region of Vera Cruz. (GFS weaker at 1005 mb and goes up into S Texas) Edited July 2 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 😬🤕 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted July 2 Admin Share Posted July 2 This is as of a couple hours ago. It appears that it may be going through an EWR, but if so, it's not really disrupting the core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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