Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but should Beryl stay on a S course and, basically, leave the GOM alone - means that basin will stay sizzling hot. Obviously, we don't want Beryl to get into that, but still . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: When we were in Jamaica, there was a storm system that blew in while we were trying to go ATV'ing. It unfortunately canceled the tour because the rain/thunder/lightning/wind was so suddenly severe and long-lasting. On the shuttle trip back, we passed a plethora of uprooted trees and road flooding. And this was just a random summer thunderstorm that lasted about 45 minutes. I REALLY don't want to think about what Beryl just did to those islands.. and what it's going to do to Jamaica. Yikes. And the G Caymans. Essch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 1 Author Moderators Share Posted July 1 They were running a live feed from Carriacou until it went out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I took a screenshot at the beginning of the feed and the end… was getting real there. Would like to see a shot of the ‘after’ for reference/education purposes. Before: During: 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I suspect Beryl will very soon start to feel a bit of that SHR out ahead. It's still well off, yet I don't think it can go Cat5 (thankfully) at this point. Jamaica will be slammed hard enough as is, so that is not a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Just below C5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 No changes from 1pm to 2pm in terms of strength. Next update will be 5pm. SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 62.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH... 240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB... 27.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 It's not in a very swift flow aloft - steering currents seem meager right now. How much can it gather up and fight the shear ahead, as it probably slows a bit now also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 1 Admin Share Posted July 1 55 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but should Beryl stay on a S course and, basically, leave the GOM alone - means that basin will stay sizzling hot. Obviously, we don't want Beryl to get into that, but still . No matter which way we slice it, El Nino has diminished (relaxing shear Basins wide) and SSTs are through the roof. I would venture to say, someone(s) is getting smacked this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 28 minutes ago, Sentinel said: No matter which way we slice it, El Nino has diminished (relaxing shear Basins wide) and SSTs are through the roof. I would venture to say, someone(s) is getting smacked this year. With Beryl, I keep finding 2005 coming up in historical precedents / records that are being broken / threatened. Beryl is the earliest Cat 4, knocking out Dennis (2005) from that claim. if Beryl goes to Cat 5, it will be the earliest at that strength since Emily (2005 again). The tropics are primed with so much heat/energy, it’s going to be a long season, I’m afraid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 (edited) Looking beastly. Seeing the shear affecting outflow to the west, perhaps, as previously mentioned. Edited July 1 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 It's both beauty and beast 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 (edited) Trying to upload a high res video from @MaineJay ‘s Colo State site… without success. Follow the link and click play on the top image! https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event/hurricane-beryl/ Edited July 1 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Starting to more definitively see the stadium effect taking hold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 1 Author Moderators Share Posted July 1 Down to 944 but no increase in wind. 5:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1 Location: 13.2°N 63.2°W Moving: WNW at 21 mph Min pressure: 944 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Forecast indicates its at peak, but... who knows what they'll find in next recon. INIT 01/2100Z 13.2N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 69.7W 125 KT 145 MPH ADT seems to be holding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 1 Admin Share Posted July 1 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 1 Admin Share Posted July 1 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Down to 944 but no increase in wind. 5:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1 Location: 13.2°N 63.2°W Moving: WNW at 21 mph Min pressure: 944 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Forecast indicates its at peak, but... who knows what they'll find in next recon. INIT 01/2100Z 13.2N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 69.7W 125 KT 145 MPH ADT seems to be holding. I wonder if the energy is being spread out a bit as it intensifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 22 minutes ago, Sentinel said: At least the storm was hauling to the west, so they only suffered the high winds for a shorter duration than if it had been crawling slower… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 setting sun lighting up the eastern eye wall 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 35 minutes ago, Burr said: setting sun lighting up the eastern eye wall You can really see how intense that eastern eye wall is with the cloud tops. Impressive storm to say the least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 (edited) New NOAA hunter aircraft inbound from St Croix Edited July 1 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I'm seeing some large wind numbers - both peak FL and otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 12 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 155. In June. I'm not sure how much value we get from looking at precedents with regards to hurricanes anymore. At least when it comes to intensity. Insert Han solo bad feeling gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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