Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I *think* I’m seeing a 955mb on the raw data at 22:20Z 221900 1111N 05655W 6933 02895 9646 +152 +123 025063 094 114 025 00 221930 1111N 05653W 6957 02843 9568 +212 +073 041026 047 114 024 00 222000 1110N 05651W 6971 02826 9550 +232 +050 067013 019 047 000 00 222030 1108N 05650W 6960 02842 9573 +210 +073 269003 015 046 000 00 222100 1106N 05649W 6980 02845 9636 +170 +107 267046 064 041 010 00 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I honestly can't stop laughing at how 3 days ago BAM claimed Beryl was going to go through the "hurricane graveyard" and within the half hour are acting like the Canadian is legit and he's hitting Mobile. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Air Force is also sending a hunter inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 9 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said: I honestly can't stop laughing at how 3 days ago BAM claimed Beryl was going to go through the "hurricane graveyard" and within the half hour are acting like the Canadian is legit and he's hitting Mobile. It flirted with the graveyard (<10N for those wondering). Honestly though, with existing enviro conditions being completely conducive when it had a slight chance to dip S, that was not a prudent call on their part. As for the second part, calling for impact in the USA right now is absurd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 Any signs of an ERC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I guess Mission 3 is going in for a lower alt look (desc from 9-8' ft) while M4 is (climbing in alt to 12k ')) gonna scope the upper levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 Eye is pretty small, hence the ERC question 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Any signs of an ERC? It does have some sort of "unstacked" look suddenly. RECON scoped the Eastern Flank and not over the Eye and that made me wonder similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 M3 now reading the center and the NE quad, not all that impressive so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 The T Score via ADT analysis show really level intensity at just under 6.0 Nothing to really weaken it, nor strengthen it further at this juncture I'd wager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Both of the hunter aircraft have seen sub-960-mb readings… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 57.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 260 MI...480 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 (edited) Going to be a LOOOONG week as Beryl transits the entire Caribbean Edited July 1 by Burr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 People in Grenada are heading South. https://www.vesselfinder.com/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 16 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said: People in Grenada are heading South. https://www.vesselfinder.com/ Good choice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Has there been any change with the high projected to station itself over SE CONUS? That was supposed to be a major player in steering Beryl towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 44 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: Has there been any change with the high projected to station itself over SE CONUS? That was supposed to be a major player in steering Beryl towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Not much has changed in the upper atmosphere, but that's not to say it can't. Let me start by saying that none of what I am writing is a forecast or what I believe to happen. Just giving a few possibilities for things to change. Some of this ranges from highly unlikely to a reasonable possibility. The first potential exit route to the north could potentially open near the DR and/or over Cuba. We currently have a strong HP in the Atlantic allowing Beryl to chug along. For those of us inlanders, we've felt some relief from the cold front that went by and the east coast should soon now that the thunderstorms are moving away. That cold front will put some strain on the HP, allowing for a potential window to form. If you look at the current GFS, you'll notice the front is washing out on Tuesday over southern Georgia and northern Florida. Lots of factors go into if a storm will move north, but lets assume our storm bypasses that potential exit route. (Highly unlikely, but not impossible) Once we continue our move westward, the next question is does the storm slide right into the Yucatan and deal with the high terrain or does it skirt the peninsula remaining mostly intact. If Beryl runs over the central Yucatan, that will take most of the sting out of the storm. The storm will come out the other side and be a shell of itself, only to finally rain itself out after it landfalls a final time in Mexico. If the storm skirts the peninsula or even threads the needle through the straight that's when we start to get concerned for the US. Once in the gulf, there are a lot of factors that could send the storm into Mexico still or push it northward into the US. (Most of this is in the forecast cone, higher likelihood) By this time tomorrow night, Beryl will have blown through the Windward Islands and be almost due south of Puerto Rico. Let's see where it is from a strength and location perspective along with taking another look at the upper atmosphere now that our initial cold front is starting to blow off the east coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 8 hours ago, StretchCT said: Eye is pretty small, hence the ERC question Give that man a cigar... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Beryl is still in very favorable shear zones - approaching however, some vestige of dry air out in front (to the NW) AND scraping by N Venezuela which might add some friction related element to its structure. Latest ADT shows both weakening flags are now in the "Off" position - regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 (edited) The really worried folks would be those who live along Mexico's E coast. They have gotten gobber-smacked with rains recently. Including from the recent Invest/Low. Additional rains near the Tampico region would likely be devastating. Edit - that Low is now TS Chris. Edited July 1 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Beryl appears to be in the late stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, with the Barbados radar showing a larger eye becoming dominant with only a small portion of the inner eye left over. While the earlier aircraft data suggested the system could have weakened below 105 kt, the recent re-organization seen on radar and satellite imagery support leaving the initial wind speed at 105 kt. A pair of aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA should be in the hurricane later this morning for another assessment of the intensity and structure. It should be noted that while Beryl's maximum winds have slightly decreased overnight, the area of stronger winds has grown, so the hazards of the hurricane are likely to affect a larger area. The hurricane continues to move at 280/17 kt, but there are signs that a west-northwestward turn is beginning. A faster west-northwestward motion should occur through mid-week due to Beryl encountering stronger low-level flow. The hurricane is forecast to turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big change from earlier so I don't want to bite off on that evolution just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the model consensus for continuity purposes. Beryl has a chance today to re-strengthen now that the eyewall cycle is close to completion and the vertical wind shear remains low. Little change was made to the previous forecast in the short term. However, a marked increase in westerly shear is coming in a couple of days as the low-level flow increases and the upper-level flow weakens. This pattern is likely to cause the hurricane to weaken over the central Caribbean, although the guidance is in poor agreement on how much, with the latest cycle showing a weaker Beryl in the western Caribbean. There is quite a disparity in the upper-level pattern shown by the ECMWF and GFS in the long range as Beryl enters the vicinity, so the new forecast is only slightly adjusts downward for 48 hours and beyond, remaining above the model consensus. It is too soon to discuss what could happen with Beryl if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Land interaction and the ERC knocked Beryl down a notch - - for now RECON is back in the storm, so let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 And with that - RECON has this to add - back to four? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 RawT score back up over 6 and pressure falls being noted on ADT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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