Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 (edited) Maybe it spares Barbados. It would be interesting if it hits Grenada as that's where the insurance companies send all the boats for hurricane season. Edited June 30 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 132 mph in the vortex message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 A couple things. 1) Holy crap, this is early for this in this location. 2) St. Vincent and the Grenadines are set to get whacked. Not a good situation with how quickly this storm intensified and continues to intensify. 3) Looking forward, there is shear in the forecast. My concern is that our storm is coming in at a very strong position and has really warm water to work with. Forecasts right now would say that the shear does a heavy number on the storm. I'm concerned that our storm might not be as beat up as modeling suggests come Thursday and Friday. This storm could get into a favorable environment before it potentially hits the Yucatan and then the forecast in the Gulf is long range, but if it is at all favorable, look out. Bath water.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 Peak winds on sonde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 (edited) HDOB over 150mph The 30sec estimated using reduction factor winds are 144mph. Edited June 30 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 hour ago, Psu1313 said: A couple things. 1) Holy crap, this is early for this in this location. 2) St. Vincent and the Grenadines are set to get whacked. Not a good situation with how quickly this storm intensified and continues to intensify. 3) Looking forward, there is shear in the forecast. My concern is that our storm is coming in at a very strong position and has really warm water to work with. Forecasts right now would say that the shear does a heavy number on the storm. I'm concerned that our storm might not be as beat up as modeling suggests come Thursday and Friday. This storm could get into a favorable environment before it potentially hits the Yucatan and then the forecast in the Gulf is long range, but if it is at all favorable, look out. Bath water.... Jacuzzi maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I golf every week with a fella named Deryck. His home is still in Barbados (he has offered many times for me to visit with him - and one day I shall but not soon) I worry for his family that remains there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 54.9W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted June 30 Admin Share Posted June 30 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) NHC Discussion: Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to 964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt. Although Beryl is still on the small side, the wind field is a little larger than previously noted with the tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend up to 100 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 25 n mi from the eye. Satellite images show that Beryl has a classic major hurricane pattern with a clear and circular eye and symmetric convective pattern surrounding it. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. The hurricane has been moving a little to the south of most of the model predictions over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl across the Windward Islands Monday morning and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the south of the previous prediction and lies close to the various consensus aids. The major hurricane has rapidly intensified since it formed a couple of days ago, and given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl's intensity to level off and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. … FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND Edited June 30 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 There's about 250,000 people in St Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada. 281k in Barbados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 Just dawning on me that with the fleet moving out of Grenada, if Grenada is hit by a Cat 4 they may not be able to return for quite a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 FOUR!!!!! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Updating this thread will be constant it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 MIMIC is astounding (to me) https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_02L/web/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) Geez, it's like the Kraken!! Edited June 30 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Well rapid intensification beyond forecast when prohibitive factors are not present. Shocking....not. same old drill. Been doing this for going on 10 years I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 G'won CMC, you crazy Canuck you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 4 minutes ago, 1816 said: Well rapid intensification beyond forecast when prohibitive factors are not present. Shocking....not. same old drill. Been doing this for going on 10 years I believe. Can't recall this early nor from that region - otherwise, yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: G'won CMC, you crazy Canuck you... That would be one way to start working on this drought problem we're having 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 RECON finding 960 with most recent reading. It's dropping another into the CoC as I type this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 13 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Can't recall this early nor from that region - otherwise, yes. Beryl is the first June Cat 4 Atlantic hurricane, and only the third to occur before August as far as I can find. The other two being Dennis in July 2005 (yikes!) and an unnamed late-July storm in the Bahamas in 1926. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Feeling like I see gravity waves in all quadrants now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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