Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) CTP discussion Even if the remnant circulation passes well to our west, the gradient between the low pressure system and strengthening high pressure over Bermuda will result in a conveyor belt of deep tropical moisture with PWAT progged to exceed 2.00 inches over much of central PA between Wed afternoon and Thursday. Also of note, the GFS is showing the freezing level between 13-15kft Wed-Thu, suggesting efficient warm rain processes. Edited July 7 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Going a bit ying/yang there at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 A little stronger https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2024&product=sonde&storm=Beryl&mission=29&agency=AF&ob=07-07-2143-22-993-70-64 69mph sfmr and 76mph flight level winds. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 21:57Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 Storm Name: Beryl Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 29 Observation Number: 20 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 21:36:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.81N 95.60W B. Center Fix Location: 128 statute miles (206 km) to the ESE (120°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,995m (9,826ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 13kts (From the ESE at 15mph) F. Eye Character: Not Available G. Eye Shape: Not Available H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 44kts (50.6mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix at 21:31:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 50° at 38kts (From the NE at 43.7mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix at 21:24:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 60kts (69.0mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 21:43:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 218° at 66kts (From the SW at 76.0mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 21:44:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) which was observed 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 21:44:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Don’t think there’s enough there yet to support increasing to hurricane strength, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 (edited) … kept it as a strong TS for now. Would not be surprised if they make an interim Bulletin to announce it has officially regained Hurricane status during the recon if they find more supporting data to bump it up. —— BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 95.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES Edited July 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Thread title could use an update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Very interesting discussion (as usual). Here’s a snippet of new info… The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Now a hurricane again. Quote Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...BERYL IS AGAIN A HURRICANE... Data from the National Weather Service Doppler radar near Houston, Texas, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h). Based on these data, Beryl is upgraded to a hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected before landfall on the Texas coast. NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches). SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 95.7W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: Now a hurricane again. The much anticipated period of quicker intensification may be underway. Dramatic contraction of the eye and some of the most recent obs support 80-85 mph at the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted July 8 Admin Share Posted July 8 Houston: The land where 1 in 500 year rain storms hit every year. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 (edited) At least it’s not going to hang around for days dumping rain… it gets outta there in a hurry. Looked pretty impressive with strengthening during and just after landfall. Edited July 8 by Burr 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 600 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BATTERING EASTERN TEXAS... ...600 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Brazoria County Airport (KLBX) recently reported a wind gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). Palacios Municipal Airport (KPSX) recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km) with a gust to 81 mph (130 km/h). Bay City Regional Airport (KBYY) recently reported a central pressure of 980.4 mb (28.95 mb) near the eye. SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 95.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 Sat/radar combo of landfall. Definitely got more organized as it hit. Even now it looks better than yesterday after a few hrs over land 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 8 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Sat/radar combo of landfall. Definitely got more organized as it hit. Even now it looks better than yesterday after a few hrs over land Though its a cat 1 now, still packing a punch and will do some damage. Hope it is minimal though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 Doppler winds are over 100mph at 400 feet. 85 this close to the radar is unusual. Thats about 100 feet above the radar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 (edited) Yellow is 10 inches. Red is 12 inches. Blue is 8 inches. There are some wunderground stations with over 10 Edited July 8 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 Would be amazed if Houston doesn't flood. Over 10" of precip last two days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 NWS OBS Gusts 48 hr rainfall and its still pouring. Coworker in Houston reporting intermittent power outages no flooding yet for her. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 8 Admin Share Posted July 8 Man, this is a ton of energy spread out across a wide area. Thankfully this is not stalling like a Harvey, but, this is still going to cause some pretty significant damage. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Author Moderators Share Posted July 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 I think people are going to be surprised by the wind impacts for what was officially a lower end category 1 at landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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