Burr Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...BERYL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 95.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES DISCUSSION: Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt. Edited July 7 by Burr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 Vortex message still supports 50kt winds. Not finding an eye though. Wondering if surface and midlevel centers aren't aligned. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 13:19Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 Storm Name: Beryl Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 28 Observation Number: 11 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 12:48:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.49N 94.81W B. Center Fix Location: 169 statute miles (273 km) to the E (100°) from Brownsville, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,022m (9,915ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 320° at 11kts (From the NW at 13mph) F. Eye Character: Not Available G. Eye Shape: Not Available H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 52kts (59.8mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix at 12:37:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 332° at 39kts (From the NNW at 44.9mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the WSW (240°) of center fix at 12:33:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 45kts (51.8mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix at 12:59:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 154° at 62kts (From the SSE at 71.3mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix at 13:00:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the NE (51°) from the flight level center at 13:00:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 3 minutes ago, Burr said: BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...BERYL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 95.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES Discussion: Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt. Further down the disco got more interesting. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 As soon as they mention the eyewall is on radar, Burr and I do the same thing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 Hour later... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 Sat with radar... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 RI models picking up on the possibility of rapid intensification. Still below 50% though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 7 Admin Share Posted July 7 13 minutes ago, StretchCT said: RI models picking up on the possibility of rapid intensification. Still below 50% though. There is no doubt in my mind that thing thing explodes as it approaches landfall. Core is resilient. Waters are very very warm. Shear and dry air completely abating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 33 minutes ago, Sentinel said: Shear and dry air completely abating. Yup - favorable next 24 hrs. Only 7 kts currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) After initial mb drop of intensification, ADT has levelled off and the T scores are relatively tame Edit- just noticed Weakening Flag is "On" again Edited July 7 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 As a visual aid to what Stretch and Burr contributed relative to dry air/sheer/warm water etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Well GFS, now that's plain flat out RUDE!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: Well GFS, now that's plain flat out RUDE!! Geez, I hope NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 🫣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 Mission 29 Vortex message with 64mph winds, 70 flight level Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 18:02Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 Storm Name: Beryl Storm Number & Year: 02 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 29 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:38:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.21N 95.35W B. Center Fix Location: 134 statute miles (216 km) to the E (82°) from Brownsville, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,018m (9,902ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 345° at 12kts (From the NNW at 14mph) F. Eye Character: Not Available G. Eye Shape: Not Available H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 49kts (56.4mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 17:30:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 126° at 61kts (From the SE at 70.2mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix at 17:26:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (64.4mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 17:54:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 302° at 47kts (From the WNW at 54.1mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 17:55:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) which was observed 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the NE (45°) from the flight level center at 17:26:00Z General Note About Vortex Messages: Small progress in strength 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 The track over the water keeps tracking too the East but after landfall the track keeps going West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 I keep wanting to say its back, but then the eyewall opens up again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 Dry air doesn't seem to be the problem by the core. Just lack of organization in the clouds compared to radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) Think we’ll be lucky to see it regain Hurricane status if it doesn’t organize more by tonight. Will it follow suit with past hurricanes at this latitude and RI? Edited July 7 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) The long-term track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models. Edited July 7 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 It’s slooooooowly reorganizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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