Burr Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 Two observations … 1) Really weakened now. 2) Going to exit the Yucatán further north & east than I had anticipated based on my reading of the forecast models, and NHC has shifted their predicted path north as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5 (edited) agree with Burr. Down to 70, further north than expected. Discussion acknowledges that and shifted guidance east. Spoiler Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely. The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory, with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight. Edited July 5 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 5 Admin Share Posted July 5 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: agree with Burr. Down to 70, further north than expected. Discussion acknowledges that and shifted guidance east. Reveal hidden contents Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely. The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory, with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight. Look at that outflow both Poleward and Equatorward already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 (edited) COC is about to head over open waters again. Definitely has a chance to strengthen a bit before it makes landfall again. But no where near it’s past strength. Edited July 5 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 5 Admin Share Posted July 5 3 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: COC is about to head over open waters again. Definitely has a chance to strengthen a bit before it makes landfall again. But no where near it’s past strength. I would say that this make landfall in the United States as a Major Hurricane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5 Gotta say the Euro is really goofy on this one. Earlier, it didn't even recognize it, then it was adamant on a southern Yucatan hit and brief time in Campeche. Now its the strongest model out there, even stronger than the hurricane models and nam. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5 Seems to be moving more north than west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 I'm thinking the final track puts the storm coming ashore between Corpus Christi and Houston. There isn't much to stop the storm from coming north and looking at water temps, Beryl is about to traverse a pool of water hovering between 86 and 88 degrees. Shear is still a bit of an issue, but this has the looks of a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane hitting Texas in a few days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...BERYL NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.. ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 90.2W ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Picture 1K words 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Another 1K words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 (edited) Sunshine Edited July 6 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 6 Author Moderators Share Posted July 6 (edited) NHC not expecting much today, but tomorrow it levels up Spoiler Beryl's structure this morning is a shadow of its former self in the Caribbean, with the low-level center partially exposed and displaced south of the best mid-level rotation and deep convection. The final couple of Air Force Hurricane Hunter fixes indicated the pressure was rising, though the aircraft did also observe 850-mb flight level winds of 65 kt, which still supports maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt. This value is between the Dvorak intensity estimates provided by TAFB and SAB. Beryl's wind radii were adjusted some from to a combination of aircraft, scatterometer, and synthetic aperture radar wind data. The poor structure of the tropical storm this morning does not favor much intensification in the short-term, and I suspect it will take another day or so for convection to reorganize around the inner core of Beryl. This process could also be slowed by a decent amount of dry air in the southern Gulf of Mexico being imported into Beryl's circulation by about 20 kt of southerly wind shear. However, this wind shear decreases to under 10 kt per SHIPS guidance after 24 hours as Beryl moves into very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures. The upper-level low currently inducing the southerly shear will also become positioned farther southwest of Beryl, in a quadrant more favorable for TC intensification. Thus, strengthening is expected to begin on Sunday with the rate of intensification likely to increase in the final 24 hours before landfall, in agreement with the most favorable conditions being prescribed by the GFS and ECMWF models. The intensity forecast remains on the high side of the guidance envelope, but is also similar to the prior forecast and shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before reaching the Texas coast on Monday. Will check in later to compare structure with the below. Looks like the LL COC is tucked under now but maybe still not aligned with middle level. Edited July 6 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 ADT showing both flags Off again. With IRRCDO indicating formation of an eyewall again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: ADT showing both flags Off again. With IRRCDO indicating formation of an eyewall again. I guess I could have just waited for the 11:00 update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 Viewing the layers from 850-500, it's pretty well aligned btwn 850-700mb and only slightly tilted ( \ ) at 500mb (IOW towards the NW of CoC) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 (edited) I'd even go so far as to say the latest sat images reveal an eye just coming out. (Center portion of this screen shot) Edited July 6 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 6 Share Posted July 6 This morning’s development in IR. Significantly different situation, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 6 Author Moderators Share Posted July 6 The cirrus outflow looks pretty good on the south side where the shear is supposed to be. Maybe it's mid level and under the outflow? Also, I think the dry air is working against it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 (edited) Looks like Beryl is now trying to pull a Kaiser Soze … and just like that, (chef’s kiss)… it’s gone. Edited July 7 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 A look back to July 1, courtesy of my Instagram feed… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 94.0W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 No real change since 10pm 7 Jul 2024 - 12:00 UTC ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM... ...BERYL STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 the center of Beryl was located near 25.5, -94.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. This sat run makes it look much better than the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 7 Author Moderators Share Posted July 7 Archer analysis from today vs yesterday Highest winds in column this morning so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 Sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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