Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 PM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 ...EYE OF BERYL PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 69.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Hi res visible. Some cloud cover creeping into the eye, yes. Not a lot, but some. Edited July 2 by Burr 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 This is a radar image from much earlier. It's cool that Puerto Rico is able to see this far out. In another bit of hurricane trivia, Hurricane Maria went directly into the hillside that has this radar. It needed to be rebuilt over a period of months! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Weakening flags are now "OFF" - let's see if a rebound (in the face of increasing shear) can be attained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 Maintained strength since 2pm update 5:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 Location: 15.9°N 70.8°W Moving: WNW at 22 mph Min pressure: 943 mb Max sustained: 155 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Discussion: Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear. Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft missions near 00Z. The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion. This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty. The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 (edited) Edited July 2 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 “I’m not dead yet.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 9 minutes ago, Burr said: “I’m not dead yet.” https://tenor.com/bbIEg.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Eye appears to have occluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 46 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: https://tenor.com/bbIEg.gif I'm not clicking this I already know what it is. 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 2 Author Moderators Share Posted July 2 59 minutes ago, Burr said: “I’m not dead yet.” Any recent microwave passes? That's a really tiny eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 5 minutes ago, 1816 said: I'm not clicking this I already know what it is. 😆 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 8 minutes ago, 1816 said: I'm not clicking this I already know what it is. 😆 Might be the Black Knight - never know 😇 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Is Mobile still in jeopardy? 😉 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Might be the Black Knight - never know 😇 Beryl has been a stone cold bitch so far but she's about to be "tis just a flesh wound" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Just now, Organicforecasting said: Is Mobile still in jeopardy? 😉 Is Mobile in Ala BAM a? Oh Mama, can it really be the end...? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 He's still a beast. I mean what's a couple mph between friends? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: He's still a beast. I mean what's a couple mph between friends? Then there's this... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 (edited) Latest pass: Eyeballing the chart at 948mb / 150mph. Edited July 3 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 3 Author Moderators Share Posted July 3 (edited) 181 mph sfmr, 167mph flight winds from mission 11 Mission 12 is lower Max sonde winds and sfc winds are reasonable compared to the ones over 200mph earlier. Edited July 3 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 3 Author Moderators Share Posted July 3 (edited) We had these blobs off storms the last few years, usually at earlier stages and I don't think they help in formation. Not sure of its effect in a mature storm. By the way the eye looks angry. Edited July 3 by StretchCT 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 3 hours ago, Burr said: “I’m not dead yet.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 3 Author Moderators Share Posted July 3 Mission 12 with 155mph sfmr and 157 flt level winds on last pass Mission 11 with 142 for both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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