Moderators StretchCT Posted July 4 Author Moderators Share Posted July 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 32 minutes ago, Burr said: There’s still some really cold cloud tops mixed in for how disorganized it’s looking. Hopefully it continues to weaken with the shear ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 4 Author Moderators Share Posted July 4 Recon so far - HDOBS Vortex Sonde - still some strong winds in the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 4 Author Moderators Share Posted July 4 I'm trying to draw a line between the centers to see where its headed. Seems north. Yeah, it looks north of forecast. Something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 (edited) Hard to pinpoint a coc, but Cozumel landfall is definitely a possibility. Edited July 4 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 (edited) Both the GFS and Euro show Beryl to stop moving northward soon, kinda due west or even south of west as it heads into the coast. Edited July 4 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 HMON landfall goes straight over Cozumel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 83.4W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 4 Author Moderators Share Posted July 4 (edited) Westerly shear? ADT responding to eye feature. TBH it does look stronger than earlier. Edited July 4 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 4 Author Moderators Share Posted July 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 4 Author Moderators Share Posted July 4 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Westerly shear? It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear has somewhat abated. The intensity forecast follows the premise that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken before landfall. However, even the intensity guidance that forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional weakening should occur while the center is over land. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf coast. It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to intensify before that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 15 minutes ago, StretchCT said: It is unclear whether the current developments with the hurricane core and outflow are temporary or a sign that the westerly shear has somewhat abated. The intensity forecast follows the premise that the shear has not fully abated and that Beryl will weaken before landfall. However, even the intensity guidance that forecasts weakening keeps Beryl at hurricane strength at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Additional weakening should occur while the center is over land. Over the Gulf of Mexico, the guidance does not forecast a lot of strengthening, but conditions appear generally favorable and the intensity forecast continues to show Beryl at hurricane strength before landfall on the western Gulf coast. It should be noted that the dynamical models suggest that the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 12-18 hr before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to intensify before that time. Beryl shrugging off shear to be stronger than expected. Let's add that to the list of unexpected things. Sun rising✅️ Hot as hell✅️ Death and taxes✅️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 4 Share Posted July 4 (edited) Dvorak unimpressed Edited July 4 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 84.8W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 (edited) slightly strengthening . Edited July 5 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 11pm update Quote BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 85.5W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Friday morning. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas late in the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected while Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is expected when Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported a sustained wind of 65 mph (105 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches) is based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula overnight and on Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength during the next few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, through Friday across the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered instances of flash flooding are anticipated across the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5 https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 5 Admin Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, Burr said: slightly strengthening . This thing is da*n resilient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 7 hours ago, Sentinel said: This thing is da*n resilient. Seems to be a trend with reality v.s. forecasts on this storm. Hope folks in it's path are preparing in earnest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 5 Author Moderators Share Posted July 5 Landfall a few hours ago Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 605 AM EST Fri Jul 5 2024 ...CENTER OF BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... Radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of Beryl has made landfall on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula just northeast of Tulum. A Weatherflow station at Xcaret Park recently reported sustained winds of 59 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Xel-Ha Park recently reported a pressure of 980.9 mb (28.97 inches). SUMMARY OF 605 AM EST...1105 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 87.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES Current center over Yucatan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...BERYL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 88.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 (edited) Edited July 5 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted July 5 Share Posted July 5 (edited) Not a good day to be at the resorts in Playa Del Carmen. Edited July 5 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 5 Admin Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, Burr said: That core is relatively in tact and it moved over less land than initially thought. Combine that with very warm waters and South Texas really needs to be on alert. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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