Moderators StretchCT Posted June 28 Moderators Share Posted June 28 (edited) We have TD two which is looking pretty gnarly on the model runs today. Here is the general direction as of 12z. Lets watch if this shifts much. With the forecast already so strong, the wildcard might be that it isn't as strong and heads further south possibly impacting Jamaica and the Caymans. If its stronger and moves poleward, then its devastating to DR/PR. Right now, theres quite a bit consensus given its 5 days out. HWRF, HMON, HAPS A&B all have this getting very strong, between 100 and 126 kts as it is south of Haiti Edited July 9 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Author Moderators Share Posted June 29 Servers are referring to this storm as Beryl now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 3 hours ago, StretchCT said: Servers are referring to this storm as Beryl now. It's official now. Quote BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.3N 43.6W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the area early Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Author Moderators Share Posted June 29 Barbados/St Lucia down to Grenada have to be prepping for this one. Odd to see one so far south. Grenada is where a lot of insurance companies suggest/insist you store your boat for hurricane season. HWRF hits St Vincent dead on, sparing St Lucia worst, but Barbados sees some very bad conditions. HMON puts brutal conditions on St Vincent. Scary stuff for them. 115kt sustained. HAFS is a little weaker, further south. Hoping this is the solution. HAFS b in line with HMON and HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Author Moderators Share Posted June 29 After it hits the Islands, then what? Intensity seems to diminish Path seems to like Jamaica But at that point there is pretty good spread in the models. HWRF and other hurricane models keeps it strong though and further north. Yes thats another one behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Watched Tropical Tidbits YT analysis last night and was left with a few takeways about this TS. 1. If it grows more rapidly now, it's likely to track further north. 2. Wind sheer - in this case 180 degree difference between low level and high level winds - are expected to diminish for a while until it gets into Gulf of Mexico. 3. There's a high sitting over southwest US and another high sitting over the Atlantic, which would likely limit any northward curve through a narrow gap. One of the things I'm unclear about, how can the trailing storm do anything but sputter? Shouldn't Beryl suck up all of the heat energy in it's path? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Author Moderators Share Posted June 29 Beryl looking pretty good, almost there. 11:00 AM AST Sat Jun 29 Location: 10.0°N 47.8°W Moving: W at 23 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 65 mph Euro has some catching up to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Beryl already at hurricane status and expected to grow fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Author Moderators Share Posted June 29 (edited) Hurricane now. 5:00 PM AST Sat Jun 29 Location: 10.1°N 49.3°W Moving: W at 22 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 75 mph FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 10.1N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W 75 KT 85 MPH Edited June 29 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 29 Author Moderators Share Posted June 29 (edited) Intensity guidance is still keeping it strong through 72 hrs then weakening Rapid intensity model is all over this. First number is how many knots it picks up, second number over time. So 20 kt increase in 12 hrs, 25 kt increase in 24 hrs, etc. ADT with the center and winds Edited June 29 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 50.3W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) Edited June 30 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 51.2W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Nothing to stop it from EXPLODING rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted June 30 Admin Share Posted June 30 Hot damn 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) 31 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Hot damn 29-30C water temps and Zero Shear. Woohooo. We have liftoff!! Edited June 30 by Undertakerson2.0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 110Mph found near CoC by Recon (2, I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted June 30 Admin Share Posted June 30 Pretty impressive on microwave imagery. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) LWMA indicates Beryl stays N of 10N (lat) and that, my friends, is a very BAD thing for those in its path. (10N Lat. and below is considered an inhibiting factor to a TC) Edited June 30 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) 969? That dropped like a damned anvil on the coyote's head. Edited June 30 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 (edited) Crikey! Winds now approaching 120mph Edited June 30 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 ADT even indicates it has a "winking eye" feature. Both weakening flags in the "Off" position now. Getting ugly - FAST 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 Wow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 30 Author Moderators Share Posted June 30 (edited) 127mph 10sec winds 132mph 10 sec winds Edited June 30 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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