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JUNE 25-27 SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL


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What's up with NWS North Platte today, likely violent tornado approaching a town earlier, yet it was unwarned for several scans. Really don't like bashing the NWS but that's a pretty bad look there... 

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Quite the flash flood event here in Lucas and Fulton county. Widespread 2-4” with some 5” lollipops in the area within a few hours here. Storms were training along that boundary just deluge after deluge. Storms from yesterday and another 2.5” from today puts me at 4.1” for a two day total. 

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17 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Quite the flash flood event here in Lucas and Fulton county. Widespread 2-4” with some 5” lollipops in the area within a few hours here. Storms were training along that boundary just deluge after deluge. Storms from yesterday and another 2.5” from today puts me at 4.1” for a two day total. 

Wow. Hope you are doing ok 

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3 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Quite the flash flood event here in Lucas and Fulton county. Widespread 2-4” with some 5” lollipops in the area within a few hours here. Storms were training along that boundary just deluge after deluge. Storms from yesterday and another 2.5” from today puts me at 4.1” for a two day total. 

I made a couple of posts in the general weather discussion.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

 

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

 

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO INTO

   PORTIONS WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...

 

   ...SUMMARY...

   Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on

   Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia/Maryland,

   central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York.

 

   ...Ohio Valley to the Northeast...

 

   Several vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate across the region

   within an area of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the

   main upper shortwave trough progressing from the Upper Midwest to

   the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will spread

   east/northeast from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec. As

   this occurs, strong theta-e advection on southwesterly low-level

   flow will result in a very moist airmass spreading north/northeast

   from the Midwest into much of the Northeast. Early cloudiness and

   periods of showers may limit diurnal destabilization from eastern PA

   into NY. Pockets of stronger instability will overlap 30-40 kt

   westerly midlevel flow from parts of Ohio into western/central

   PA/NY. While midlevel lapse rates will remain quite poor, sufficient

   effective shear magnitudes amid rich boundary-layer moisture should

   support organized clusters and line segments capable of

   strong/damaging gusts. Vertically veering low-level winds will

   support somewhat enlarged and curved hodographs, with sufficient

   low-level instability and 0-1 km SRH. In addition to damaging gusts,

   a couple of tornadoes also will be possible. 

 

   A more conditional risk may exist from late evening into the early

   overnight hours across parts of northern NY into VT as the surface

   front impinges on the area and the main upper shortwave trough

   ejects eastward. Strong vertical shear will be in place amid a very

   moist airmass. However, convection may remain elevated given poor

   timing with the diurnal cycle and impacts from daytime convection.

   If convection can become surface-based, damaging gusts will be

   possible. 

image.png

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18 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

 

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

 

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO INTO

   PORTIONS WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...

 

   ...SUMMARY...

   Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on

   Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia/Maryland,

   central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York.

 

   ...Ohio Valley to the Northeast...

 

   Several vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate across the region

   within an area of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the

   main upper shortwave trough progressing from the Upper Midwest to

   the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will spread

   east/northeast from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec. As

   this occurs, strong theta-e advection on southwesterly low-level

   flow will result in a very moist airmass spreading north/northeast

   from the Midwest into much of the Northeast. Early cloudiness and

   periods of showers may limit diurnal destabilization from eastern PA

   into NY. Pockets of stronger instability will overlap 30-40 kt

   westerly midlevel flow from parts of Ohio into western/central

   PA/NY. While midlevel lapse rates will remain quite poor, sufficient

   effective shear magnitudes amid rich boundary-layer moisture should

   support organized clusters and line segments capable of

   strong/damaging gusts. Vertically veering low-level winds will

   support somewhat enlarged and curved hodographs, with sufficient

   low-level instability and 0-1 km SRH. In addition to damaging gusts,

   a couple of tornadoes also will be possible. 

 

   A more conditional risk may exist from late evening into the early

   overnight hours across parts of northern NY into VT as the surface

   front impinges on the area and the main upper shortwave trough

   ejects eastward. Strong vertical shear will be in place amid a very

   moist airmass. However, convection may remain elevated given poor

   timing with the diurnal cycle and impacts from daytime convection.

   If convection can become surface-based, damaging gusts will be

   possible. 

image.png

Some concern relative to CIN brought on by the overcast conditions early on here in C PA. The Hodographs continue to show cause for alarm none the less. Any any heating at all, with PWATS of up to +3 Std Dev., have a head start to work along with SRH. 

I see that CTP added small hail back into the discussion, after having removed it yesterday. Prudent move, for that kind of Lift will surely be capable of bringing it down from above. 

 

The past week's mid week event - whacked us HARD. Honestly, when the sudden Bowing Line headed towards us "suddenly" and I went out and saw a cloaked Shelf Cloud, I knew we were in trouble. The winds gusted in excess of 50mph and the scene develoved into very close to the last time we got touched by a Nado. The tree and limb damage was pretty incredible and our  main power was out for quite some time. (good thing we finally put in that Transfer Switch, end of last winter -  so the switch over  to the Genny power was clean and quick)

 

Best of luck with today's batch, to all. 

image.thumb.png.090b717b7904d32447bdd109e027c457.png

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