snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 732 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC065-240100- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0126.000000T0000Z-240524T0100Z/ Jackson OK- 732 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY... At 732 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 5 miles west of Olustee, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Olustee and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation. && LAT...LON 3449 9961 3459 9965 3467 9960 3465 9936 3444 9942 TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 251DEG 23KT 3458 9951 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 New PDS warning. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 736 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Jackson County in southwestern Oklahoma... South central Kiowa County in southwestern Oklahoma... Northwestern Tillman County in southwestern Oklahoma... Southeastern Greer County in southwestern Oklahoma... * Until 815 PM CDT. * At 736 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Olustee, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Altus, Olustee, Martha, Elmer, Headrick, Friendship, Altus Air Force Base, Humphreys, and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3453 9958 3466 9962 3474 9955 3477 9908 3445 9917 TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 259DEG 21KT 3458 9948 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 743 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC065-240100- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0126.000000T0000Z-240524T0100Z/ Jackson OK- 743 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY... At 742 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Olustee, moving northeast at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Olustee and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation. && LAT...LON 3453 9959 3460 9961 3467 9960 3465 9936 3449 9940 TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 211DEG 16KT 3461 9948 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Finally weakening but will probably cycle again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 2 tornadoes? Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC055-065-075-141-240115- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0127.000000T0000Z-240524T0115Z/ Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK- 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GREER COUNTIES... At 757 PM CDT, a storm with a history of significant tornadoes was just southwest of Altus, moving northeast at 20 mph. An additional tornado was located between Altus and Duke with erratic motion. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Altus, Olustee, Martha, Headrick, Friendship, Altus Air Force Base, Humphreys, and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3455 9954 3467 9957 3474 9953 3477 9908 3447 9916 TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 248DEG 18KT 3462 9937 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Watching the KOCO live stream... Looks like it's going to drop again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 50 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 2 tornadoes? Can't say I recall seeing "erratic motion" in a tornado warning before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 0z NAM not backing down on Sunday/Sunday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 0z NAM not backing down on Sunday/Sunday night. Not at all.😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 No shortage of energy for storms to form on Sunday. High end potential from what I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Surprised to see none of the CAMs showing convection in OK Saturday. Probably typical 48 hour shenanigans but I was not expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: No shortage of energy for storms to form on Sunday. High end potential from what I'm seeing Good potential for sure. Still a little bit to iron out. Looks like there could be an initial round of convection in part of the target area. Should destabilize again in the wake of that, but that will be something to monitor for the northward extent of the threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Smaller enhanced risk now for Day 2. Maybe the CAMs and CIPS analogs are onto something... Still could be significant (and as usual it only takes one) but I'm thinking Sunday will end up being the bigger day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Pretty surprised that the enhanced area isn't farther north and east into Ohio. Quote Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 3 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: This is really starting to get real 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 They might want to postpone the Indy 500 if this keeps up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This is really starting to get real It really is! We still got time for it to fall back some so let’s hope that is the case lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Bruh 💀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 24 Moderators Share Posted May 24 (edited) 4 hours ago, snowlover2 said: Pretty surprised that the enhanced area isn't farther north and east into Ohio. I'm not surprised one bit when it comes to IL/IN 12z NAM/3km continues to show possible extreme conditions on sunday Edited May 24 by Central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 24 Moderators Share Posted May 24 This is just south of Bloomington IL on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 2 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: This is just south of Bloomington IL on sunday I'm always a little leery looking at forecast soundings that may be contaminated by convection, as this one may be as suggested by the pink bars on the left side. Do you have one that doesn't have that (or at least very minimally?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: They might want to postpone the Indy 500 if this keeps up I went back and looked at 5/30/2004 race day... that day started out as moderate risk in Indianapolis before eventually going high risk. I think it would take a lot for officials to postpone the race and I don't really see that happening, but a major tornado bearing down on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is undoubtedly one of the top nightmare scenarios for anyone in emergency management. At this point, the main severe threat for Indianapolis looks like it could hold off until after the race is done, but things are subject to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 24 Moderators Share Posted May 24 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm always a little leery looking at forecast soundings that may be contaminated by convection, as this one may be as suggested by the pink bars on the left side. Do you have one that doesn't have that (or at least very minimally?) True I can look when I get home later its kind of hard to do on mobile but I get what your saying...Right before I left home today I looked at the 3km it was showing a similar idea but a bit later in the day from the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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